This is substantial. When you see the numbers themselves, you might say “that’s not enough” and in and of itself, the story that broke today about one GOP senator contemplating jumping ship is not going to change the entire game. But bear in mind that you’re dealing with odds making and that is a dark art all of its own. Match that up with the political dark arts, and what Lisa Murkowski said this afternoon about being “open to the possibility of changing the status quo” and becoming an Independent (caucusing with Democrats) is a bombshell. And the betting markets are recording it as such.
BetOnline.ag quickly adjusted its “Senate Control” projections where the Republicans were a hefty favorite this morning. Here is the recap:
2026 Senate Control – Monday, June 23, 9 a.m. ET
Democrats        +400
Republicans      -700
(NOTE: Above odds imply an 87.5% probability GOP will control Senate)
2026 Senate Control – Monday, June 23, 4 p.m. ET
Democrats        +170
Republicans      -250
(NOTE: Above odds imply an 71.4% probability GOP will control Senate)
It doesn’t seem like a big swing, but in the world of oddsmaking, it’s a massive one.
That is the point. One senator makes one comment and the odds swing 16 freaking points in to the Democratic column? THAT is a statement. And there’s one thing you need to remember: in this insane political world we now dwell in, rule out nothing. Nothiing.
If you want to read more on Betline AG, here’s the hot link.
“in this insane political world we now dwell in, rule out nothing. Nothiing.”
Never a truer word uttered.