While it is true that President Donald Trump campaigned on the imposition of tariffs, and he did specifically reference wanting changes to the USMCA, along with possible problems in border security, it is impossible to believe that American voters envisioned the very sudden and deeply concerning “war” of words and trade that he has opened up on what had been a blessedly stable relationship with Canada. The “51st State” stuff has gone from an almost amusing pre-inauguration troll to now an inexplicable tactic that seems designed to do nothing more than promote hostilities that have already had real-world consequences. Both the American tourism industry and your 401K have felt the blow. On the heels of a sudden pullback on the promised tariffs to the car industry, today Trump lurched back into what almost looks like a primal scream into a phone… One with market and international implications.
Today Trump announced an “additional” 25% tariff – added up to 50% on certain Canadian products and added one to electricity on shared grid. Per a report in Mediaite, along with a social media landscape that is “lit” with the news:
I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th,” wrote Trump before explaining why he considers a trade imbalance “outrageous.”
Before we get to any imbalances it’s important to ask two questions. First, it was Donald Trump that negotiated the new USMCA that replaced NAFTA and before he gets into a death spiral with our biggest trading partner it would seem prudent to identify what has changed such that he appears to be ripping up an agreement that he initiated. It is also important to ask what he’s trying to obtain. We were told that the main issue had been stopping fentanyl and human trafficking at the border. Evidently, threatening the U.S. auto industry was necessary to stop the .2% of America’s fentanyl threat coming out of Canada. Moving on, we get back to what would otherwise sound like war-talk.
“The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State,” Trump concluded, reiterating his bizarre and unnerving suggestion that the United States should somehow annex its northern neighbor. “This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear. Canadians taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that. ”
Except that Canada has been perfectly clear that they have no interest in joining the United States and thus we’re now left to wonder how far Trump is willing to push this. It is already causing damage. No one seriously considers military intervention – one would think that such a move would almost force impeachment to the table, and so where is he going here and who benefits in the long run? There don’t seem to be good answers to any of these questions – we know that the Dow appears to be sending a message, down another 500 points as of this writing. He wasn’t done:
“The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear,” he concluded, adding “And we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, ‘O Canada,’ will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!”
Not for nothing but he may want to someday elaborate on how Vancouver would be in the same state as Halifax – or tell Vermont that that its two Senators will be absorbed into Quebec – they’ll love that. But without regard to implementation, there’s no indication that both nations weren’t safe and beautiful as things stood. Right now, if you ask Canadians, all reports are they will now point to the U.S. as the greatest threat to their freedom and safety. Ironic that Trump may single-handedly ensure that the Liberals win another Canadian national election. Canada’s erstwhile Conservative party is probably whispering “That’s quite enough, thanks!”
None of this has to be and with each passing week with red numbers coming out of Wall Street, there is the expectation that this will all get pulled back from the brink. Defying all logic, Trump is doing the exact opposite. Canada has and will respond. There is a reason these trade disputes get called “wars.” And it’s not limited to Canada. Right now, especially in Europe (But don’t disregard Japan and South Korea), there’s far more sympathy toward Canadians than the U.S. and it could be that a new pact will form between Canada and the E.U. – they all have to trade with someone. It could isolate the U.S. that much more.
There is one last pertinent point in that this isn’t the OG Gilded Age. Modern international trade relies on real time communication, orders, contracts, and fast shipment of goods. The system isn’t built to handle fast changes. When the dynamic is suddenly upended, it’s far easier for businesses to just hit the pause button than rush toward anything. This may explain the market reaction. Unfortunately for American car companies, a pause of any significant length can be fatal. Jamming the cost of electricity up in Michigan is a great way to immediately lose support in what is supposed to be a very close 2026 Senate race. It is all but impossible to predict the cascade of consequences which is why they sign agreements like the USMCA in the first place.
Someone explain this.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and on twitter-X at @JasonMiciak, and follow now on Bluesky.
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“Not for nothing but he may want to someday elaborate on how Vancouver would be in the same state as Halifax – or tell Vermont that that its two Senators will be absorbed into Quebec – they’ll love that.”
Jason, I don’t get this. Why would Vermont have “its two Senators . . . be absorbed into Quebec?” If Vermont’s Senators are “absorbed into Quebec,” wouldn’t that mean we’d only have 50 states, instead of Drumpf’s constant “51st state” nonsense?
I would like to see the US become Canada’s eleventh province
Sorry, we REALLY have no interest. None. Nada. Zip. Sorry
We love you folks, but we are NOT you folks
We look at you guys like our beloved crazy cousins who jerk from passably-normal government to f^&$#g lunacy every 4-8 years. You amuse us. We particularly love the “we’re the greatest country in the world, in all of history!!” jingo-ism while your economy lurches from amazing to “ohmigod” while poverty, no matter how much wealth rises to the top, is persistently god-awful. And while you guys tell yourselves how great you are, we have the very real problems of booming housing prices cuz everyone on the planet is ACTUALLY moving to Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, etc! And again, poverty. So much wealth so criminally concentrated in so few hands, while the levels of poverty are so pervasive. It does NOT have to be like that, and here, it is NOT. I have thought of moving to New Hampshire or Nevada to pay zero State taxes, but I’d RATHER live here and pay DOUBLE the taxes and KNOW we are not allowing such grotesque, inhuman, inexcusable poverty!!!
It’s simple, folks: Trumpler thinks that his boss in the Kremlin made a very smart move by attacking Ukraine. He sees attacking Canada as his version of that cunning ploy, although not deploying military means, thus far. Hey, if my pal Vlad can take over a peaceful, non-threatening neighbor, so can I! Sadly, Trump’s not clever enough to see that Putin’s losing his war and that he, the mighty Donald, will lose his too.