Twofer Saturday. Yay! Just now Alex Witt on MSNBC just had an early voting analyst specialist on, and boy! Was he something to bring a smile to your face.
For starters he confirmed that in Pennsylvania, as in most other battleground states, Women are outperforming Men at the ballot box 55-44.Good news for Harris, since women voters this year appear motivated by more Harris friendly issues.
Now just a little deeper into the weeds. The analyst confirmed that the early voting composition is eerily similar to the composition in 2020. But there are a couple of hidden landmines for the GOP out there, and they may already be stepping on them.
For one thing, the GOP points to its sky-high early voting is a sign of their improved and vaunted ground game, as well as the enthusiasm of their base. OK Jack, if you say so.
But when you look at the breakdown by party, 52% of the GOP voters who voted early this year voted on election day in 2020. The cannibalization Cornell Belcher, Jason Johnson and I have been preaching, among others is actually happening. Same voters, different day. Meanwhile, 90% of the Democratic early voters this year also voted early in 2020. Their election day army should be at least as large this year as it was in 2020, while GOP election day turnout will be about half what it was in 2020.
And now comes the one that’s kind of like kicking somebody you already knocked down in the cojones. I’ve been preaching about the GOP’s inability to attract new voters, due to the toxic MAGA message as well as the lack of a ground turnout game. When they looked at new, first-time voter registrations the last four years in Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a whopping 20-point edge! This can be critical since almost every battleground state is reporting heavy first time voting in the early voting period.
Considering how similar the polling in the other battleground states is to PA, and considering that the ground game and enthusiasm numbers and organizational proponents are similar, there’s no reason to believe the situations on the ground aren’t similar there as well. But even if they’re not, it may be immaterial.
The last battleground poll I saw yesterday had Harris +3 in MI, and +2 in WI and PA. If those leads hold she’s in, since she already has Omaha-1 in her hip pocket, which means 270. Everything else is burying Traitor tot and making it harder to pull that lame court challenge bullsh*t again. Which will be harder anyway, since PA, WI, MI, NC, and AZ all have Democratic Governors and top statewide control, limiting the GOP’s options. 3 more days. Keep punching and keep the faith.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Maybe women are getting smarter or maybe they’re tired of an adjudicated rapist and pussy grabber telling them what he’s going to do “like it or not”. Either way…the day they do smarten up AND VOTE FOR KAMALA will be the day all sexual predators will be looking over their shoulders. No more free pussy grabs fellas.