In the last month we have seen a wave of polls that seem to indicate that Kamala Harris’s momentum has stalled out. Instead of a trending to a four to five point lead over Donald Trump, the polls stubbornly inched back and entrenched themselves with a one to two point lead. The result is a race stuck at 50-50 because, as Hillary Clinton taught us, a two point lead in the national polls results in a popular vote victory and a narrow electoral college defeat. But some of the polls that seem to push Trump’s move toward the middle may be by design – fabricated. The trend may be skewed as part of a highly coordinated strategy, one that makes diabolical sense.
To be sure, when polls start to go against either side we inevitably hear it is a bad poll, a “liberal poll,” or “that’s Rasmussen!” – something, anything, all denying a painful truth. But this shift might go deeper than any single poll in favor of a cluster arising from a centralized plan Some experts point to a slew of right-wing polls all emerging at the same time and thus impacting national trends. The tactic would be relatively new and yet there is possible precedent favoring the Democrats.
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier points to a similar pattern in 2022 – the anticipated “red wave” election bombed spectacularly, falling far short of predictions and polls. It may be happening again. As reported by Rawstory and from The New Republic:
A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump.”
It makes intuitive sense, actually looks relatively easy so long they have a ton of money and a ton of time. Given that this is “the” race for president one ought to presume that they have the requisite time and money. Again, it’s not that exotic – almost inevitable if done right.
So why skew polls if you know the result is wrong? Yes, momentum, or perceived momentum, impacts motivation to go to the polls at all. Everyone wants to back a winner and some might stay home given what looks like an inevitable loss. The voter saw it coming and didn’t want his or her emotions invested.
Meanwhile – to that end, Trump-supporters must first build the narrative, one in which Donald Trump is seen as:
[The] ‘strong’ figure whose triumph over the ‘weak’ Kamala Harris is inevitable. This illusion is essential to Trump’s electoral strategy, goes this reading, ..  They are also engaged in a data-driven psyop designed to spread a sense of doom among Democrats that the election is slipping away from them.”
This is a major problem. Yes, it concerns the motivation to get out and vote. But the strategy then rolls into second dynamic based on that same sense of doom. The expectation that a win is inevitable would normally be confined to impacting the total vote. This isn’t normal, and a race with strong expectations prior to the election roll right into expectations after the election – normally irrelevant, now anything but.
Yes, both parties scream about skewed polls. Both parties can be counted on to take every fractional advantage – in polling, in ads, in getting votes out, all of it. But it feels like only one party is committed to wrenching a victory from an electoral defeat. Questions exist as to whether Congress will adhere to the result if Harris wins, even if Harris wins with all 50 states certified. This type of win might only even the ultimate odds. It is not a normal election.
As sad as reality might be it, voters should be more motivated than ever. Pouting at home isn’t the answer. As I have written before, reality is such that Harris has to win swing states by two points, not .2 points. Now, you can wave your hand at me as a defeatist but it remains reality and this reality sucks.
I dearly hope I”m wrong. But a lot of time and money has been spent creating a reality they think is right.
God Bless:Â I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
Well, there is some idiot on fux stating the race is over for V.P. Harris. Now I realize trump has been throwing around threats to revoke the station licenses of every news organization not blowing him but this fool told a blatant lie for the sole purpose of confusing voters/the public about a federal election on a t.v. station claiming to be a “news” station. I wonder what, if anything, can be done about crap like this?
Do not trust ANY “information” from the right – not polls, not conservative media, not GOP politicians. Twenty years ago, an anonymous right-winger (alleged to be Karl Rove) said, “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.” The GOP has followed that mantra ever since, and it became super-charged when Trump rose to power. The real outrage is that the mainstream media takes their lies disinformation seriously. Don’t fall for it.
I actually think this the right’s end game: to skew the polls such that when the VP overwhelming wins on 11/5, they will claim it’s fraudulent “because of the polls”. They’re not necessarily trying to discourage democrats from voting, although that could be a favorable side effect, to the right wing, but they need a basis to justify claiming the voting was rigged, even though it isn’t. So, this is their card-up-the-sleeve.
We need to be prepared for this and confront it when it appears, and point out far and wide how the polls that have favored the former president are horribly skewed in his favor.
This is certainly part of it.
jason