I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor. And believe me, rich is better Sophie Tucker
This is getting ridiculous, but not at all unexpected to my mind. My personal version of the old mantra is, Money can’t buy happiness, but who cares? It buys everything else. And the last full quarter FEC fundraising tell you everything you need to know, as well as something you can extrapolate from.
The FEC 3rd quarter includes July, August, and September. It was late July when Kamala Harris took over the spot as the presumptive Democratic nominee for President, so let’s just say she was at the helm for August and September. Well, the Democratic filings show that the campaign raised more than $1 billion in that three month window. They didn’t mention Traitor Tot’s quarterly haul, but I can assure you it was puny spuds, and here’s why.
In the month of September alone, the Harris-Walz campaign raised a cool $236 million. And this time, there was a specific number for the Trump campaign, a paltry $67.5 million. Sh*t, personally I don’t know if a measly $65.7 million a month covers his legal fees.
But at least now we have confirmation on why Traitor Tot has been bitching and moaning about his dire medical condition, Lackamoolah behind closed doors. Since he’s stuck flying private now, and cities and towns won’t take his IOU’s anymore, what’s a desperate deadbeat to do?
Here’s why this matters so much. As I’ve previously written, in these last 15 days Harris’s travel schedule dwarfs Trump’s, and she’s traveling today with Liz Cheney in three town halls in PA, MI, and WI. The heavy hitters, including Tim Walz, Bill Clinton, President Barack and Michelle Obama are on the trail, with the likes of Usher pitching in. Traitor Tot has his Hillbilly Imbecile, and he’s just Trump without the F-Bombs.
More importantly, Harris is clobbering Trump in the battleground states in television advertising. And living in Vegas, I know it. My Saturday college and Sunday pro football games have Harris outspending Trump at least 3-1 on campaign paid positive commercials. And Trump’s Supre PAC ads were apparently put together by a community college Advertising 201 class, while The Lincoln Project and Republicans for Accountability bend him over the rail for a flogging.
Even worse, Harris is burying His Lowness in online advertising, which is cheaper than television markets, and she’s micro targeting it. Using In sites like Snapchat, YouTube and Tik-Tok, she’s posting short, snappy spots intended to catch the eye, and using clips of Trump’s public display of El Pendejo ex Presidente’s mental instability to make their point. Add to that her online media tour the last 10 days, and she’s reaching these often tuned out potential voters where they live and play.
And here’s what I can extrapolate from the above data. As of today, some 14 million early mail in and in person early votes have been cast. That equals just about 10% of the total vote cast in 2024, setting records in state after state. And there’s still close to two weeks in most states to get more early votes banked.
Now GOP operatives and the Traitor Tot campaign will tell you that this sudden jump is due to more GOP voters casting early votes this time instead of waiting for election day. They nod and wink like this is some kind of secret Baron von Schitzenpants plan to neutralize the Democrat’s early voting edge. And it may well be that there are more GOP voters, especially elderly and disabled voters who are taking advantage of early voting.
But here’s the McGuffin. It’s all bullsh*t. Because 74 million votes is still nothing more or less than 74 million votes, regardless of when they’re cast. More GOP early votes simply mean a smaller election day turnout, making it harder to overcome any significant Democratic early voting edge. Also, as I’ve written, with the Covid dangers in the rear view mirror, many distrustful minority voters will return to election day voting, as may many first time Democratic voters waiting for election day to get the whole experience.
But to me, these early voting blowout numbers come down to one simple word. Enthusiasm. And considering the fact that the last voter enthusiasm poll I saw had Harris with a 13 point lead, I think we can safely assume what’s driving early voter turnout, and it isn’t GOP voters who have had a Come to Jesus Moment re: early voting.
And here’s where the fundraising numbers extrapolate into it. The Harris-Walz campaign has been an unprecedented juggernaut. $1 billion in a single quarter has to be a record that will stand for a long time. And $236 million in a single month shows you that Democratic enthusiasm is sky high. And as I’ve written before, people who put skin in the game by donating are far likelier to show up and vote, as are people who canvas, register voters or phone bank, simply because they put sweat equity into it. What little ground game Traitor Tot has is being paid for and bungled and mismanaged by Elon Musk.
There you have it. The last official quarterly fundraising numbers, and everything is roses for Team Harris. I’m not paying much attention to the polls at this point, but I’ll be watching trend lines and early voting numbers like a bastard maniac. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Thanks, Murf, for keeping us updated on the trends as they’re been revealed to you. PZ and a few other sites are all I can depend on for this information.
And thanks in advance for keeping us abreast of the trends as time passes.
I live in NC which is in play. I’m seeing political ads but frankly not as many for the Presidential race as I’ve expected. More has been about lower offices and given the mess Mark Robinson made Josh Shapiro doesn’t really need to be on the air much. He can maybe help out other candidates. As for Trump last week for the first time in a while I saw a Trumpy Bear ad! And thought WTF? Is Trump THAT hard up for money? It gets better. Today I’ve seen TWO of those Trumpy Trout ads! Ok, so MAGAs might be motivated to vote by them but it sure as hell won’t get any other voters to the polls. Even MAGA voters might be wondering what the hell is going on with Trump! I don’t expect any of them to turn around and vote for Harris. However if some are discouraged by seeing THIS and at this point of the race and don’t bother to vote at all that’s good enough for me.
As I mentioned in a previous post, the wife and I made the journey to the local library in Bexar County (San Antonio) I live in the reddist part of the very blue city. I had to wait in line for an hour to vote. The librarians had to put out signs and cones that the parking lot was full. I had to park across the street in the grass. It was like that all day. Although unlikely, a strong turnout in both Austin and San Antonio could cause problems for chip roy. I will be looking for the numbers as they come out to see if there is much change from the 2020 numbers.
We never see trump or Harris ads. Alred has been showing up during the football games, Cruz ads only show up on the streaming services I watch. greg abbott has paid a lot of money to hold up his state leg primary challengers. I think I see his ads the most. abbot may have the deepest pockets in Texas because the state party is a mess.
I always enjoy reading your articles.
Thanks for another great article.
Just saw on TV the DOJ is either going to investigate or considering investigating muskrat for the 3 million he has given out so far to registered republican voters. Up to 5 years prison. Hah! Won’t happen. But they should confiscate the money from the recipients and threaten Them with jail to scare them so they won’t do it again.
If V.P. Harris is advertising during Sat/Sun football games, she ought to ask Dave Bautista if she can use the videos he made as T.V. ads. I saw the latest one and I hadn’t laughed so hard in years. She would get the male audience and likely have them in stitches.