The nation finds itself rocketing toward the most consequential election since at least 1860 if not more. The concerns extend even to what might happen after the election. To that end, many voters have submitted their ballot early as each side seeks to “bank” votes. This is true even if banking votes doesn’t expand the actual voter base or total vote. It’s possible that they are merely collecting votes that would otherwise be cast on election day. To that end we have a barrage of news concerning the total count.
The best estimate regarding the early vote has Kamala Harris up 2-1 in banking ballots. Again, that doesn’t mean that Trump supporters won’t make up the difference on election day itself nor that Harris has extra votes. But it’s certainly not a bad sign. According to USA Today’s reporting:
Democrat Kamala Harris has a sweeping lead over Republican Donald Trump − among voters who have already cast their ballots, that is. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows the vice president leading the former president by 63%-34%, close to 2-1, among those who have already voted.
Obviously this is good news unless someone expects a 3-1 advantage, which would be absurd. There is one context in which the vote can be seen as an “extra” vote and thus a win. The win applies to a voter who at the last minute couldn’t get childcare, had no transportation, doesn’t feel well on that day, or maybe work went late – the extenuating circumstances that impact the total vote. But those circumstances likely impact both sides.
The polls also show some real problems for Harris:
Overall, Harris was favored by 45%, Trump by 44% − a coin-toss contest. Among those who have already voted, one in five volunteered “abortion rights/women’s rights” as their most important issue, second only to the economy/inflation.
This is devastating news must be altered fast unless the polls reflect a unique element. If you recall, Hillary Clinton road a wave of polls showing her up 2.5% going into election day. She lost. If Harris is only up one percentage point it is probably best to assume a loss. That is reality, as much as it might sting.
One difference could set this election apart from 2016. The economy normally drives the electorate. But in this election we see women’s issues as the top concern. This might mean that women will vote in a much bigger block and tend to do so at a greater rate than men. Women may be more committed to voting at all. Thus the block may transcend states and apply at a greater rate to swing states – it is hard to tell.
We do know that voters are engaged because of the early vote is coming in with breathtaking numbers. We have already reported on the record breaking vote in Georgia – double the early vote in 2020, and now news comes from North Carolina. From The Hill:
The North Carolina State Election Board said 1,008,123 ballots have already been cast in the 2024 election, including 916,433 ballots cast via in-person early voting, 77,831 ballots via civilian absentee voting, and nearly 14,000 cast via military or overseas absentee voting.
There is also news that will send a shudder down your spine. One questions how this can happen in the United States, even though we’ve always heard the warning: “It can happen here.” Arizona knows it better than most as their election offices have become dystopian war zones. From the Wall Street Journal
Across the state, election workers have gone through active-shooter drills and learned to barricade themselves or wield fire hoses to repel armed mobs. At the ready are trauma kits containing tourniquets and bandages designed to pack chest wounds and stanch serious bleeding.
If you read the above about a small country in Latin America or Eastern Europe, you would assume that the news arises from a brutal dictatorship. It also sounds as though the “war” may have already begun given that the same article states that police snipers will be in place around those offices. Meanwhile, the race in Arizona remains close according to a Washington Post poll discussed on “Morning Joe;” Trump leads Harris by three percentage points.
Mixed news for both sides except for the fact that the election looks to be ugly at best, tragic at worst. It is hard to imagine what the nation experienced in 1860. We can assume that they didn’t have snipers on buildings nor threats to election workers. We know that war soon followed anyway.
It feels like war today. No shots have been fired as the nation teeters on the edge. It takes two minutes to start a slaughter, it can take two generations to repair. Breathtaking news for all sides.
God Bless and Help Us All: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
It’s almost a pity that we do engage in the process of a secret ballot. I mean, just imagine how easy it would be to put an end to any thought, much less talk, of “armed mobs” attacking election workers by finding the ballots of ALL of the people participating in those mobs and destroying their ballots.
Simple rule: You participate in terrorist acts or military actions against election workers (or any government agents or agencies), and you lose your right to vote.
I am happy to see there are so many voting so sad that poll workers have to do active shooter drills its like they are in elementary school instead of working an election. #Voteblue #kamalaharris2024
I’m waiting to see early voting stats here in Texas. It started today, as we drove by city hall, the parking lot was full. I’m thinking that’s a good sign.
in line to vote in bexar county. more than 100 people in front of me. it has been like this all day.
just voted. about an hour wait in line
Just voted with sis at Irving tx city hall at noon. Packed parking lot. Snoop Kamala and sis: same bday🤪😂
My only grand daughter’s birthday was sunday, too.
I wonder if it’s counterproductive to concentrate on early turnout, for a couple of reasons. First, I remember the same thing in 2016. Also, Republicans vote more on the day of the election. Last, it might cause Dem’s to be complacent and Republicans to really show up.
That 2016 result is a permanent knot in my stomach.
Usually early voting trends to the Democrats. This doesn’t bode well at all. If magats are voting early, we’ll, I can’t even wrap my head around them disobeying their orange jeebus