18 Days To Go. Why This Race Is Harris’s To Lose

18 days to go. And while the races in the battleground states continue to be razor thin, a few of the pieces are starting to slide into place, and there are some things we can glean if not predict. And the augers bode well for Kamala Harris;

• Early in person and mail in voting in Georgia is blowing the doors off, and that includes the record year of 2020 when Covid was raging. Nationally Harris has a +17 advantage in early voting
• Early in person voting in North Carolina is underway. And for a state where thousands of people still don’t have electricity, early voting turnout has been robust. Traitor Tot and The Hillbilly Imbecile are spreading vicious rumors actually trying to keep residents from applying for benefits they qualify for, and Harris is on the ground, promising full support. Draw your own conclusions
• Former President Barack Obama was in Tucson, Az today raising the roof for Harris-Walz and US Senate candidate Ruben Gallego. He ripped Traitor Tot so many new ones he’s going to have to grow an extra hand to wipe
• Speaking of Arizona, polls show that Ruben Gallego is running +5 against Trumplet Kari Lake. This shows plenty of room to grow in the final 18 days
• The Democratic heavy hammers are out in force. Obama was in AZ, and Bill Clinton was down south today, where the Secretary of Explaining Stuff gleefully told the audience that he was only 2 months younger than His Lowness, and wouldn’t expect people to vote for him
• Harris will appear next Wednesday with PBO in Georgia, and then on Saturday with Michelle Obama in Michigan
• After slamming the good citizens of Detroit at a rally in Detroit, Trump went back for seconds in Detroit today, and had empty seats at his venue
• Desperate for union endorsements, Trump held an interview where he said that the UAW was a joke. They ship boxes to the plant, where workers open the boxes and put the pieces together. A child could do it. The internet exploded with enraged union workers graphically explaining the heavy labor and difficulties of their jobs
• Trump’s campaign fell on their sword by claiming that El Pendejo ex Presidente was exhausted from the campaign trail, and that’s why he wasn’t doing interviews. The Harris campaign immediately pounced, questioning Trump’s age, physical fitness and mental abilities
• Harris, Walz, and their surrogates are playing to raucus, enthusiastic crowds. Trump’s only surrogate, Beggar Vance got booed at a rally for saying that Il Douche wouldn’t turn military troops loose on civilian protesters
• Critically, today I saw video of two focus groups of disgruntled former Trump voters who, while lambasting Traitor Tot, said that they were voting with their feet because the party itself no longer stood for the things it did when they signed up
• Just a quick on-the-fly fact check. I wrote that North Carolina had strong early in person voting turnout on their first day. In fact, MSNBC just reported that more than 336,000 voters, a first day in person voting record had showed up to cast ballots. Not bad for a state still in the middle of a massive cleanup

Just a personal aside. Early in person voting opens in Nevada tomorrow, and Teri and I will be going up on either Monday or Tuesday to cast our ballots. On a general note, here in Nevada, the Culinary Workers Union, the Nevada service industry union which endorsed Harris, is out in force, with thousands of union volunteers banging doors and rousting votes. The same is true in Reno. This will not only aid Harris, but incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen.

The standard political adage is that a presidential campaign is a 28 month marathon, not a sprint. But when you get to the last 18 days, it’s a f*cking 100 meter dash. And with her truncated 105 day campaign schedule, Harris is just hitting her second wind, while Traitor Tot is lugging an oxygen bottle behind him.

Look, forget the issues, forget the platforms and forget the speeches. When you get to the last 18 days, any still undecided voters left out there that will likely cast a ballot are going to be swayed by images. And on the one side you have a youthful, energetic, positive, forward looking candidate with a positive uplifting message. And on the other side, you have a third time candidate, old and tired, almost incomprehensible, spouting the same lame sh*t he was bellowing out nine years ago.

I will close with this. Both Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher as well as former GOP strategist Stuart Stevens agree on on one thing. In a race like this, where multiple swings states are within the margin of error, two things tend to happen. One, they tend to break late, usually in the last 7-10 days. And two, when they break, they tend to mostly break the same way, since most of those voters have been looking for the same thing. Harris is running on a fresh, new, uplifting message, while Traitor Tot is running on the same old stale sh*t. My money is on Harris.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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