The Critical 1-2% That Nobody Is Talking About

The polls are what they are, and right now they’re pretty much all within the margin of error, both nationally as well as in the battleground states. It’s going to be close. And when we’re talking about close, most people are predicting 12,000 votes in Georgia close, or 18,000 votes in Arizona close. The polls are what they are.

But you know what else? The numbers are what they are too, and unlike polls, they aren’t subject to change due to the whims of voters. The numbers are what they are. And those numbers may well bode ill for Traitor Tot 25 days from now.

Earlier today on MSNBC veteran Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said something that had my whiskers twitching. You all know how dearly I love to talk about the hidden army of 18-29 year old voters that nobody knows what to do with because they’re almost impossible to poll? Well, Cornell Belcher had a similar take, but on a different demographic.

According to Belcher’s research, there is going to be a small, but quite possibly critical shift in the voting demographics from 2020 to 2024. And according to his calculations, the 2024 voting population is going to be 1-2% browner than the voting population of 2020. I know, it’s such a small number.

And it is, until you put it in the proper context. In 2020 roughly 160 million people cast ballots during a global pandemic. There’s our baseline. Now simple math tells us that 1-2% assays out to roughly 1.6-3.2 million people. All of a sudden that number doesn’t look quite so small anymore, does it?

Now granted, that population is going to be spread across all 50 states, but let’s be honest. By their very nature, the migration of minorities tends to trend to larger, more diverse cities, with more diverse populations and more jobs. And so this incremental browning of America will tend to migrate to larger urban areas, many in hotly contested swing battleground states. That’s why African Americans and Hispanics struggle for power in states like LA, MS, and AL. There just aren’t enough of them in the urban areas to overpower the rural white votes.

Now let’s keep talking straight. Are all 1.6-3.2 of these voters locked in Democratic Harris voters? Of course not. But when you look at the minority demographic breakdowns, it’s still positive news for Harris and the Democrats.

Is Harris doing as well as she would like with African American and Latino male voters? No. But there’s room for growth, and she’ll be working on that tirelessly right up until election day. That being said, while Traitor Tot has made inroads with minority males, he’s still getting a minority share of the minority male vote, and that could be critical. And when it comes to African American women and Latinas, Harris and the Democrats are cleaning up, thanks to the gender gap.

And it’s not like His Lowness is going all sweetness and light to court minority voters. At a rally in Detroit last night, Trump told the African Americans in attendance, and to any who watched the news afterwards that, If Kamala Harris wins in November, pretty much the entire country will become one giant Detroit. Trump-to-English translation, The entire country will become a crime infested sh*thole. And don’t think that the Democrats won’t be pounding that racist bullsh*t with a hammer in large urban area attack ads.

And here’s a twist of my own making. A few months ago I reported to y’all that former Trump Press Secretary Anthony Scaramucci had related something newsworthy, who’d a thunk it? What he said was that from election day of 2016 to election day of 2024, more than 6.5 million Baby Boomers have or will have shuffled off to take The Big Nap. And that’s a core GOP constituency that Traitor Tot can’t replace. Because with the toxic MAGA culture, El Pendejo ex Presidente can’t even attract young white voters much less minorities. And that’s an issue the GOP will struggle with years after Traitor Tot is out of the picture.

What’s the old song? Little things mean a lot. And when you’re talking about a baseline of 160 voters, 1-2%, especially strategically located in critical places can make all the difference in the world. 25 days to go. Keep punching and keep the faith.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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