Money, money, money, and the enthusiasm from which the money comes drive a campaign into a positive feedback loop that can directly lead to results in an election, especially a close one. To that end, the Harris campaign is packing a punch going into the last three and a half weeks to Election Tuesday. Some September money numbers were leaked on Wednesday suggesting that the Harris campaign has crossed the one billion dollars line in money raised since just August. That is three months if you’re scoring at home or even doing so from Teddy Cruz’s Texas.
Yes, read and weep, Trump supporters. From NBC News:
The staggering pace suggests Harris has been able to sustain enthusiasm among donors, large and small, as the campaign enters the stretch run before the Nov. 5 election.
As to the campaign’s money – excluding money raised in PACs supporting her candidacy, Harris controls far more than the Trump campaign. From Forbes:
The Biden—now Harris—campaign committee raised $678.2 million and Trump’s campaign committee raised $309.2 million in total between January 2023 and Aug. 31, 2024, the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission filings are available.
Yes – and to give you an idea as to the historic numbers, Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign stood at $540 million at this point in his race. Another indices comes directly out of the most money raised in a 24 hour period, the day after the September 10th debate. Never say that debates don’t matter. Again from Forbes:Â
which includes $47 million the campaign reported raising in the 24 hours after Harris’ debate against Trump on Sept. 10—her largest one-day haul since entering the race.
All of this money news comes from sources within the campaign who have leaked the news. The official numbers from September have not been released yet. But please be excited because no one in the campaign will set Harris up for a fall if the numbers were to be lower. Indeed, if anything, expect the official numbers to be higher so as to milk out yet another winning message.
There is some news to temper the elation – always to be assessed. The Harris campaign does have some vulnerability that scares them. From NBC News again:
But it comes amid a historic onslaught of outside spending from super PACs and other groups that has the Harris campaign concerned — particularly on direct mail, where the Harris campaign has seen Republicans open a steep advantage in recent months, and on the ground, where groups like Elon Musk’s super PAC and others are working to turn out voters for former President Donald Trump.
Few of us are experts in running a campaign but the Harris folks have plenty of such experts and if they’re worried then we ought to share that worry. So do. Donate again. If you need motivation there is a new poll out from the highly regarded pollsters at Quinnipiac that has good news and bad news, the good news coming from must-win Pennsylvania:
New Quinnipiac polls
PA
Harris 49%
Trump 46%MI
Trump 50%
Harris 47%WI
Trump 48%
Harris 46%https://t.co/yY9JAG5LXa— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 9, 2024
Quite obviously, she wants to win all three – badly, but even falling behind in Michigan and Wisconsin can be offset some by winning the biggest swing state remaining – Pennsylvania. If those numbers hold then North Carolina and Georgia become that much more important. But Harris best spend a lot of her fortune shoring up Michigan and Wisconsin. If she wins all three, then the concern about 50-50 North Carolina and Georgia becomes slightly less critical. In no way can she win Pennsylvania and lose Michigan and Georgia or North Carolina – Michigan had been thought to be shored up.
She has a lot of work left to do and reason to worry. But those worries are exactly why she wants big cash left to get the vote out from an enthused voter base. To that end, one hopes that the polls reflect more people who think they’ll vote but not the Democrats who know they’ll come out. It is something on which to hang their hat.
So the good news is that they have the money. That news is tempered by the fact that they better spend it wisely in shoring up the “blue wall” in the mid-west. The Michigan number is deeply concerning. We need to see movement in Michigan because one gets the sense that if she can pull up there, she’s going to do well in other swing states.
One can find slightly better news with ABC News 538Â average that has Harris up one point in Michigan. But while looking, notice all those states that are all within one point and breathe in how close the election is sure to be. Then get short of breath thinking about the Trump post-election freak out if Harris squeaks by.
So, take some joy away in a historic money haul demonstrating record enthusiasm. But temper it, always – with the reality that this election is as close as any since the great compromise ending Reconstruction.
God Bless:Â I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak
