Northwestern U. Data Scientists IDs The Moment Trump Blew It

In addition to having been a “jock” I also once had an accomplished background in performing arts. It included appearances in a number of musicals, and a general love of the genre both on stage and in film. My Fair Lady is awesome whether seen live or in the classic film starring Audrey Hepburn as Eliza. At one point a young suitor her age makes a play for Eliza’s affections and fed up with both Professor Higgins and the character Freddy she belts out a stern tune: Show me. It starts with her exclaiming ‘Words words words I’m so sick of words. Is that all you blighters can do?  That’s how I feel with all the talk about polls. This poll. That poll. Pundits endlessly talking about how they aren’t ‘predictive’ and then using the data to do exactly that!

Well, methodology is certainly a factor in how seriously to take any given poll. The more reputable outlets are open about their methodology. Sample size and how it was obtained and/or weighted. For poll geeks there are all kinds of subtabs, and even the questions that are asked are there if one wants to dig  beyond the big number of ‘who’s leading.’ However, there are different polls that over a very, very long time have proven to be predictive. Fortune has a write up about such a “poll” that I find interesting as hell.  It doesn’t just say Harris has pulled ahead and is poised to a big win in November, it points out the moment things shifted in her favor.

Northwestern University data scientist Tom Miller claims things went from Trump being ahead and in good shape to suddenly finding himself trailing at a very specific point.  He even seems a little put out with himself that only now has he come to realize it but he makes a pretty good case for what he thinks will come to be viewed as the moment when Trump himself slashed the ‘Trumpmobile’s’ tires:

“It was staring me right in the face, but at first I missed it,” the Northwestern University data scientist told this reporter by phone on Sunday. “I saw this huge jump in Harris’s support on July 31st, but didn’t put it together with Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention that day. That event, and not the debate that just made things worse for Trump, marked the decisive turning point in the campaign.”

Miller doesn’t make his case on traditional polling results.  Instead he relies on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site! Miller believes their odds are much more reliable from the polls  In his view traditional polls indicates preferences that are four or five days old and include too much ‘statistical noise.’ PredictIt on the other hand is the most liquid betting market, averaging around 37,000 wagers a day, according to Miller. And given that each player is subject to a $850 limit, no single bettor or group of high rollers can artificially inflate the odds for one candidate or the other.  Put bluntly, the Elon Musks of the world can suck it because $850 is the limit they can spend! Too bad campaign donations from individuals can’t be capped but that’s another much larger topic.

Talk the old saying goes is cheap. People putting up actually money betting adds a layer of seriousness to their opinions.  But again, since there’s a modest limit high rollers can’t go skewing the overall odds. That ladies and gentlemen is what makes this an interesting platform to look at:

The Miller model posits first that the PredicIt odds closely reflect popular vote percentages. Put simply, a candidate given a 55% chance of winning, or priced at 55 cents on PredictIt, is likely to receive a similar share of all ballots cast. Second, Miller shows that historically, the popular voting shares closely track the portion of the 538 electoral votes each contender receives. That relationship, he found, has been extremely stable over every race since 1960.

The linked article (which you really should take a few minutes to read in its entirety) goes on to describe Miller’s realization of what turned the race and when.  Between July 21-27 Harris’ electoral count numbers improved, but then flatlined for a few days and she was still behind Trump. Then came is disastrous event with the National Association of Black Journalists and questioning Harris’ racial identity in hostile terms. Yes, there was blowback in the media, but Miller points to his data:

“Over 100,000 shares traded that last day of July, three times the usual number,” he says. “Literally overnight, the election shifted from leaning Republican, to trending Democratic, as Harris surged to over 270. Trump’s statements at the NABJ conference proved a complete disaster for his campaign. It had nothing to do with anything Harris did. The huge shift was all Trump’s doing.”

The Fortune article mentions that in the two weeks after Harris’ electoral count continued to climb, but then Trump started to close the gap. The news that his sentencing would be put off helped and after the first week in Sept. although Harris remained ahead it was a virtual tie again. Then came the debate.

Then, the face-off in Philadelphia sent Harris’s forecast electoral count up big time. “That increase was the combined result of the debate and Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris,” says Miller.

As of Sept. 22, PredictIt prices suggest Harris’s odds of winning stand at 56.3% versus 43.7% for Trump. Those odds, Miller contends, would translate into an overwhelming win for the vice president with 43 days to go.

Miller cautions that things could still change. Events out of the candidate’s control and their own mistakes can alter the outcome. Still, he believes Harris is headed for a big win. Given the accuracy going back to 1960 of the method he relies on I like where we stand right now.  Like Eliza I’m sick of polls and words/talk about polls. I’m way past ready for actual voting. Everyone knows who they are going to vote for and I wish we could just get on with it this week and get it over with!  The finals words of the song I’ve referred to are “Show me NOW” and in my mind I’m thinking ‘VOTE-ING NOW!’

(For a treat, the one and only Audrey Hepburn)

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