You know how they always say Where there’s smoke there’s fire? Well Nicolle Wallace just did a segment on how the Iowa race tightened so suddenly, and it may actually end up being a blast furnace for Trump.
On Deadline: White House Nicolle had on Iowa pollster Ann Selzer. And she’s not just a pollster, she’s the Oracle of Delphi in Iowa. And after hearing about her methodology, it’s easy to see why.
Most pollsters have one or two specific pools of voters they get their samplings from, registered, which is raw from the SoS voter registration lists, or likely, which means that they’ve voted in at least the last two elections. Obviously likely voter polls will be more accurate than just calling any yahoo with a voters registration card in their wallet.
Selzer doesn’t bother with that lame sh*t, she wants voters. And that means voting in at least the last three election cycles. And when the names are chosen from the voting rolls, each prospective voter is contacted personally to ensure that barring death or dismemberment, they’ll be voting in November. As far as I know, she doesn’t ask for party affiliation, that’s kind of self evident when they tell you who they’re voting for. It’s a blind pool.
When the last poll was done in June, Biden was still the presumptive nominee for the Democrats, and Iowa’s 6 week abortion ban had not yet been signed into law. Trump basically owned Iowa, trouncing Biden 59-32. Worse for Democrats, almost all of the Trump voters were highly motivated or energized to vote in November. For the Democrats, not so much.
What a difference three months makes. With a fresh pool of voters, but an identical poll except for Harris replacing Biden, Trump’s lead has been trimmed to 47-43. Worse, Harris has flipped the enthusiasm gap on Trump, now the Democrats boast something like an 82% maximum enthusiasm level. And the final nail in Trump’s coffin, Selzer saw a major surge of voters among women under the age of 45, college educated voters, and white suburban women, the last one usually a GOP stronghold. That four point gap is narrowly under the margin of error for a Selzer poll.
There are several reasons why this is important. First, the Iowa poll shows that the Democrats core constituencies are coalescing around Harris still has room to grow. Second, it shows that Traitor Tot is continuing to bleed white suburban women voters, likely over reporductive rights. And if white suburban women voters are ditching Traitor Tot, what do you think the chances are that at least some of them drag their husbands along for the ride, unless the sofa is a pull out?
Now, sticking with Iowa for just one more minute, this is where it gets interesting. If Ann Selzer is showing this kind of sea change among dedicated voters, what might the results be if she dropped down a notch and did a poll with likely voters? But it’s probably not too far afield that a similar erosion may be taking place there as well, making the race even closer.
And here’s why this may be a weathervane moment. Selzers’ methods appear flawless, and her record stands for itself. Now think of this. What if Ann Selzer had done the same polls, with identical methodology three months ago and today in, oh let’s just say, states like PA, NC, GA, and MI? Obviously each state is different, but what about states like FL, NV, and OH with pro choice ballot initiatives on the ballot in November? No way to know, but it does add a little intrigue, and I’d be surprised if at least some battleground states aren’t going through the same convulsions. We’ll know soon enough.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Iowa is a small enough state population wise for someone like Selzer to do her particular granular type of polling. Most of the other battlegrounds have too many people and are too diverse. Iowa however is mostly homogenous. White. More rural/small town than urban/suburban. It’s made to order for someone as smart and dedicated as Selzer. Still, it matters a great deal because what she’s finding likely at least partially at work in other states. Just to the south is Missouri and while it’s got St. Louis and Kansas City as well as some smaller populated enclaves the bulk of it is a lot like Iowa. Same with Indiana which lest we forget Obama won in 2008 and was competitive in in 2012. Similar, slim margins each time.
IF Selzer is on to something and I think she might be there could well be enough folks in big chunks of states (including the famous “T” in Pennsylvania, mostly white and working class rural/small town and smallish cities) that could make for some surprises on election day. In PA in particular Trump wants to again go to bed on election night ahead, having claimed he ‘won” because that state’s GOP legislators have refused to change the law so that mail-in/early ballots can be processed prior to election day and fed through the vote counting machines. I think it would be funny as hell if Selzer is correct and something is stirring in rural/small town America with white, non-college educated voters. And enough people in PA’s “T” vote for Harris that SHE is ahead late on election night!
Can you imagine the rage tweeting out of Marmalade A Lago if that happens? And a Trumpy who was up all night finds himself having LOST not just PA, but also my state of NC which is always close. Maybe Georgia too. Tammy Faye Bakker herself couldn’t slather on enough ugly orange makeup to hide Trump’s ghastly scared whiter than a ghost (OMFG I lost! I’m going to wind up in prison. And broke!) complexion.
Screw another Cubs miracle like 2016. Look what we got in return for that dream coming true. I have a new dream and I’ve just described it. Sorry Cubbies. Once in a liftetime was enough for me. I’m going to save my wildest dreams and fantasies for something that matters a whole lot more.
If Selzer is polling three time voters, she is missing an entire cohort of new and younger voters. So the oracle is sipping from a stale pool. Expectations are that many new and younger voters are galvanized to turn out, and a safe bet is that the majority are more liberal than dad and grandpa. So it may be slightly worse for the orange fellow than it looks and I expect it is.I can say this with some confidence—I spent over 15 years as a senior person at a firm that did thousands of surveys and was known for polling.
Seems like Tim Welz is right up their alley.