The four corner pieces are already in place, and now most of the border pieces are locked in. Now it’s time to start filling in and see what kind of a picture we have.
And I don’t think that Traitor Tot is going to like the finished puzzle though. I snuck a peek at the picture on the cover of the box, and it appears it’s a fat old cow in a river surrounded by a school of piranhas.
Let’s follow the White Rabbit, shall we? Start at the beginning. Go on until the end. Then stop. The week before the Harris-Trump debate, a national poll of likely voters had Harris with a 52-46 lead, outside the margin of error. The same poll released today shows an identical result, 52-46. This tells us a couple of things. For one, if Harris didn’t pick up any new voters after Traitor Tot’s nuclear meltdown, it tends to tell you that his flat rock ceiling, at last in that poll is 46%. Second, back-to-back results tend to show stability in at least that poll. Barring a major Harris unforced error, it isn’t likely to change much.
Now, let’s add some pieces. On Thursday there was a poll released, I believe it was a Marist poll that showed Harris up 47-42. That was followed on Friday by a Reuters poll that had Harris leading 48-43. And yesterday came the Morning Consult poll that had Harris up by 50-45.
See the pieces starting to fit? A couple of things that all three of those polls have in common. First, in none of them did Trumpty Dumpty get above 46%. And you’ll also note that in all three polls, Harris has a durable 5% lead. That’s outside or just at the margin of error for all three polls.
If these numbers start to click and stabilize, here’s why it’s important. In the last week of the 2016 campaign, reputable national polls showed Clinton with a moderate but durable 3.5 point lead. She won by 3.7 million votes, which assayed out to a 3.4% win, right on target. And in 2020, in the last week of the campaign Biden had a 5-point lead. Biden won by 7 million votes, which assays out to 4.8%. With such a small undecided group of voters, and Traitor Tot’s baked in toxicity, it’s hard to see how he shifts the needle much with his current antics.
Now let’s switch from polling to get an even better perspective of how some of the other pieces are starting to fill in. Any good sports team coach will tell you that The best defense is a good offense. So, let’s look at that for a minute.
Obviously El Pendejo ex Presidente’s 2024 game plan had to be to go on offense. He got clobbered in 2020, and if he wanted to win in 2024, he was going to have to flip some of those battleground states that went for Biden in 2020. Most noticeably PA and GA. But against Sleepy Joe, His Lowness wanted to expand the map to include blue states like MN, CO and NM. Force the Democrats to spend more money defending their own states, spread them thin.
But look what actually happened so far. Not only didn’t Trump expand the map, Harris is leading or tied in 6 of the 7 battleground states, and within the margin of error in the other one. Not only that, but GA is stubbornly refusing to flip back, forcing the Trump campaign to spend money they don’t have there, but North Carolina is a true battleground state, forcing the campaign to spend money to protect something they already had. And even the Hillbilly Imbecile was forced to admit today on a talk show that It’s hard to see how Trump wins the White House if we lose North Carolina.
OK beggar, how about these road apples? A new poll released today shows Trump only +2 in Iowa! When Biden was on the ticket, Trump owned Iowa by 18 points. And before you scoff, as former GOP representative David Jolly pointed out today, Iowa had a Democratic Governor in the last decade. Now add in that the state’s new 6-week abortion ban is an albatross around the GOP’s neck.
And now for Trump’s worst nightmare. MSNBC reported today that this weekend, for the first time in 2024, GOP Super PAC’s have Harris attack ads up and running in freakin’ Florida! And little wonder. As we speak Traitor Tot is only up a lousy +2 against Harris in the Sunshine State, and GOP incumbent Rick Scott is in the same boat in his Senate run. There’s a pro-abortion initiative on the ballot which is expected to drive up turnout, something the Democrats struggle to do in Florida. And Here’s the potential kill shot. South Florida is home to a large Haitian-American population, and they’re furious about Trump and Vance’s viciously racist Tropes about Haitians eating pets. After all, what could infect Springfield, Ohio could infect South Florida too.
So there you have it. Not only isn’t Trump on offense, and not succeeding so far in battleground states, and not only does Harris have way more money on hand than Traitor Tot, but now he’s having to spend money in places he shouldn’t even have to think about, like Iowa and Florida. That’s not a winning combo.
One quick example of how these pieces all fit together. If Traitor Tot was, say +5 in PA or GA, then he would be able to pull some of his advertising resources from there and put it in other battleground states like NV and AZ, forcing Harris to spread thin. Instead it’s Harris who has Trump trying to back-and-fill. And time is running out. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Your continuing analyses have been, over the years, proven to be, well, prophetic. Keep up the good work.
Too bad you’re not a politician Murf…keep reading those tea leaves to remind us there may be a way out of this yet.
I’m hoping now that Trump stated he hates Taylor Swift that her fans will work those polls like a bullet train and just bury him in a landslide. Taking Florida & Texas would b icing too. Do like your poll breakdowns!
You bring clarity and meaning to us mere mortals, when the numbers swirl in a confusing conglomerate, consequent to the pull, parry and thrust of politics, at such a vital and important point in this time line.
His lack of any gain in voters might explain this second staged event at his golf course today. He needs the pity vote because he sure as shit isn’t getting any other voters on board. I understand he’s also bleeding military voters who are generally pretty solid g.o.p. block. Outside of the bat-shit crazy magat voting block, is there any demographic he’s NOT losing? I suppose the wealthy tits like space karen, those not wanting to pay their fair share.
Murf, let me tell you I wish I had as much knowledge as you do, and I could write as well as you do, but those days are long gone. I enjoy your columns just to read but bonus, I learn a LOT. Thank you.
Murf, I’d be hesitant to keep mentioning the margin of error in those polls without actually stating what the margin actually is.
Something that keeps getting missed in all the polling numbers is that the “margin of error” is not some “magical” number wherein having poll numbers outdoing that margin means some kind of set-in stone performance. The “margin of error” works a bit differently than that.
Obviously, when you’ve got a poll showing, say, 48-46 with a 3-point margin of error, that 2-point difference can be worrisome. But, what that margin of error REALLY means is that the poll result could be 45-49 or 51-43 or any pair of numbers (in this case, equaling 94–the sum of 48 and 46) between those extremes. BUT, even when you have a poll showing 50-45, having a 3-point margin of error does not mean you can do your version of the Snoopy dance. What it does mean is the actual results can be 47-48 (meaning a statistical tie) or 53-42 (an obvious blowout).
When the “margin of error” is given, it’s ALWAYS shown with the ± (plus or minus) sign. This means that when you add the number to one side, you have to subtract that number from the other side–and you have to work it in BOTH directions. Basically, the only time you can feel safe with polling numbers is *IF* the difference between the two given numbers is equal to, or greater than, twice the margin of error. IOW, if the margin listed is a “3” and you want to feel relatively safe about the figures, then the difference between the poll numbers needs to be at least “6.”
I don’t believe any of these polls. There is a deep racism in the US. A racism that is hidden from polls. Most white people hate black people, especially immigrants. This hatred is invisible from polls. trump and his team know this hidden hatred is out there. they have the internal polls. This is why trump keeps up the racist immigrant cats and dogs attack. they have internal numbers that this is a winning strategy.
the large Haitian population in Florida isn’t just in the south. there are s lot if Haitians where I work in Jax. and I see (or rather hear the creole) at stores, etc.