Who needs a “breakthrough” moment at the debates? EVERYBODY does!

Lllllllet’s get reeeeeeady to RRRRRRRRUMBLEEEEE!!!   Michael Buffer

Everybody off of the phone from their final calls to their caterer for their debate watch party buffets? Ya know, maybe it’s just my “old codger” showing through, but I don’t remember the same kind of intensity four years ago, surrounding the first mass cattle call debates on the GOP side that introduced us to the Don Rickles of politics. Maybe it’s the format, two nights of 10 candidates each, instead of jamming everything into 4 hours on one night, or maybe it’s the fact that for once it isn’t a bunch of frumpy white dudes standing around shooting the shit. But whatever it is, the intensity and interest are certainly there.

But because not only is the format more equitable this time around, but because you have a much more diverse field, not only racially and gender based, but qualification wise as well, there aren’t just a lot of candidates, they’re trying to separate themselves in narrow niches as well. But for the first time in quite a while, the front runners are for the ost part being squeezed in ways they haven’t been in the past as well. Everybody has skin in the game, but for different reasons. Let’s break them down, shall we?

The Whozats – That’s what I call them, from “Hey honey, whozat? The third one on the left from Biden?”There are a ton of them, from governors you’ve never heard f from states you don’t think about, to congressmen with limited name recognition, to businessmen. All brought together by the allure of the chance to kick Donald Trump’s pasty ass. And all desperately needing to stand out from the rest of the casting call.

They are there for one reason only, the Democrats rule allowing grassroots fund raising to be a qualifying factor, rather than just the normal polling criteria. If they don’t somehow create a “moment” to distinguish themselves, not only does their donation support wane, but they run the real risk of somebody else in the crowd who creates a moment, and steals some of their support. These are the candidates who will “swing for the fences,” since they already have two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

Cory Booker – I’ll be the first to admit it, Cory Booker’s showing so far surprises me. He’s young, energetic, with a compelling personal story, charismatic, African American, has some name recognition from his Senate tenure. And he’s failing to catch on in any significant way. I’m especially surprised at his lack of resonance in the African American community, but they’ve been saying all along that just being black isn’t a guarantee of their support, and apparently they mean it, at least as far as Booker is concerned.

Cory thought he had his cause celebre moment with Biden’s segregationist gaffe, but that fell flat. Normally, that kind of “punching up” is effective, but Booker miscalculated, in that civil rights icons like John Lewis and Jim Clyburn were willing to give the front runner, with so far wide African American support, air cover. This may make Booker more hesitant to attack Biden, which he is going to need to do, if he’s going to carve out a durable niche.

Kamala Harris Harris is surprising me for much the same reason that Cory Booker does. She marks off all of the same basic boxes that Booker does, with the additional box that she’s not only African American, but also a woman. Yet she too struggles for traction in the African American community. Again, giving credence to claims in the community that just being African American is not a free pass to popularity.

Harris is also suffering from the fact that there are so many other highly qualified women running in the race, including three fellow Senators. This is personified by Elizabeth Warren, whose profile is much higher than Harris’s, especially with her work fighting for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, something that catered to working class voters. Like Booker, Harris has the base and fund raising to continue on, but they both need to do something to move into the double digit top tier, and soon.

Beto O’Roarke – I wrote a lengthy article previously on the ills of Beto, which I won’t copy and paste here. Suffice it to say that Beto is discovering the hard way the difference between being a national darling trying to knock off a national disgrace like Ted Cruz, and trying to become king of the mountain for the whole country.

In Texas, O’Roarke had the luxury of running against Cruz on state issues affecting voters. That is a world away from defining and offering solutions to national issues, and it’s shown. Beto’s passion for organizing infrastructure on a state wide level should have been a strength, but he dicked around so long with his announcement tbat by the time he was ready to get up and running, most of the top talent in the states was already spoken for.

Beto has the charisma, enthusiasm, and Jack Kennedy personality to move into the top tier as the “youthful” candidate, but he ceded the early advantage in that category to Pete Buttigieg, and he has to reclaim it and quickly. If he doesn’t find a way to make a major splash in the first two debates, he’s likely a goner.

Pete Buttigieg – “Mayor Pete” is the darling of the campaign that Beto had marked himself out to be. Young, energetic, a small town mayor who turned things around for the city financially, a veteran, and a married gay man. What’s not to love? But as so many before him can tell you, charisma and a personal story only take you so far.

Buttigieg suffers from quite q few deficiencies. First, inexperience, Buttigieg has never even run on a statewide ticket, let alone nationally. And there are cracks behind that facade of success. African American support is going to be critical, and even before the Fathers Day shooting of a black man by a white officer, Buttigieg was hurting with the African American community. The flap of demoting the black police chief over surreptitious taping of white officers making disparaging comments hurt him badly in the community. The shooting only served to take that issue and magnify it into national prominence, a second strike that Mayor Pete didn’t need.

Pete Buttigieg has the core support to stay afloat for a while yet, but if he doesn’t manage to find a way to come up with a spotlight moment, not only to overshadow his current crisis in South bend, but manage to find a way to turn things around in the black community, he’s pretty much reached his ceiling.

Bernie Sanders – Bernie Sanders was a “perfect storm” candidate in 2016. He had it all. A highly unpopular leading candidate, a base struggling to find its identity coming off of 8 years of the popular and charismatic Obama, And a radically progressive agenda to fire up a younger, traditionally more lethargic base. And with all of that, Debbie Wasserman Schultz set aside, he still came up short.

Bernie has the problem that it isn’t 2016 anymore. Bernie is no longer one-of-two, he’s one-of-twenty-three. And worse for Bernie, you can’t patent agendas. In 2016, Bernie test marketed a whole agenda of radical ideas, and in 2020, candidates are poaching the better ones left and right, spinning them to their own tastes. The problem is that a lot of these people are more personally likable than Sanders.

If Bernie Sanders had one shortfall, which could be easily overlooked by enthusiasm, it was a lack of clarity on the how, mainly how to pay for all of this shit. Other candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, are not only espousing Sanders plans, but actually providing concrete proposals on how to pay for it! In four years, Bernie Sanders went from being the lone voice in the wilderness to bein the fourth tenor on the left. And his gown doesn’t look as good as some of the other ones.

Bernie needs a breakout moment, but it’s hard to see how he accomplishes it. His once revolutionary ideas are now standard fare, and he isn’t even sharing the stage with Warren, his closest opponent. Sanders needs to break through, but a crusty attack against Biden, standing next to him, will probably be deflected by Biden, with just enough humor to make Bernie look foolish.

Elizabeth Warren – Elizabeth Warren walks into these debates with almost the most to gain, but certainly with the most to lose. Warren had a dream draw, there isn’t another top tier contender on the stage with her. This is a golden opportunity for her that will likely never come again.

Warren’s answer to every question should be her standard “U have a plan for that.” That’s it. Ignore everything else. Everybody else on the stage is going to go after her in one way or the other, simply because the’s the top dog. Forget about it, there’s no reason to punch down with any kind of response. With the spotlight to herself, Warren has the chance to explain and develop her proposals in a way that separates herself from Sanders, her only legitimate threat beneath her at this point, and own discussion of her responses for 24 hours, leaving Sanders to try to repair the damage the next night, with her words already set in stone.

If Elizabeth Warren plays her cards right. she can come away as the biggest winner of the debates. She can put space between herself and Sanders, offering not only the same agenda items, but a clear and concise way fo paying for them, as well as rolling out other populist ideas for the lower and middle class without opposition, forcing Sanders to respond 24 hours later, via remote contro. She can start to defind the race into Warren-Biden heading into the next debates.

Joe Biden – This debate should be a walk through for Biden, but suddenly it isn’t. Biden is his own worst enemy, His gaffe about segregationist Senators was totally self inflicted, and he’s done a miserable job of cleaning it up. His refusal to apologize, not only for that, but also for the crime bill and Anita Hill, have started problematic whispers about his being rigid and uncaring about the feelings of others, a comparison to Trump that he doesn’t need. Also, Biden’s absence from the campaign trail has been noticeable, and his policy proposals have been rather bland and lackluster compared to the others.

Biden has an Achilles heel here. From day one, his strongest qualification has been electability, the ability to take Trump behind the shed, go toe-to-toe with him, and emerge victorious. The biggest name, n the biggest stage, under the brightest spotlight. Who else but Joe? But Elizabeth Warren has been steadily climbing the polls, and more worrisome for Biden, making inroads in the African American community, and suddenly she’s starting to look electable.

Biden’s debate draw was a nightmare for him. He needed Elizabeth Warren’s spot, the stage to himself, being able to contrast with Trump to his hearts content. Instead, he’s going to have to spend at least some time engaging with candidates like Booker, Harris, and Sanders, each wanting to make Biden the hapless defender in their slam dunk Kodak moment. It will instead be Warren who is free to take jabs at Trump all night, putting on her Xena, Warrior Princess costume while Biden slogs his way along.

That’s how i see it, 24 hours out, but there is a wild card here that must be mentioned. And that wild card is none other than Donald Trump. Trump has already been an influence on the Democratic primaries, and he will continue to be so, for one simple reason. The dreaded electability issue.

That is the number one issue for Democrats, and Trump is playing it like a fiddle. Trump has made sure that Biden continues to be though of as his biggest threat, by elevating Biden to top contender status with his attention and insults. This pushes the thought that Trump fears him the most, elevating Biden’s popularity among Democratic voters. But, if Warren continues to surge, and Trump feels that she is a serious threat, he will instinctively pivot to start insulting and paying attention to her. If Democratic voters sense this, then suddenly Elizabeth Warren becomes more seriously electable in the minds of Democratic voters, and Biden’s support starts to slip. Oh, what a tangled web we weave, huh?