Whatever The Numbers, 2 Caveats For The Polls Going Into November

Well, well lads and lassies. We’re finally in the home stretch. 40+ days to go until the midterms. And the trends continue to lean Democratic, at least in the US Senate.

In Nevada, Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto holds a narrow lead over GOP bottom feeder Adam Laxalt, and she’s outspending the shit out of him in advertising. In Arizona, the latest polling and fundraising numbers have the Cook Political Report moving Mark Kelly’s race from a toss up to lean Democratic. And in Georgia, incumbent Democratic Senator is in a statistical dead heat with GOP troglodyte Herschel Walker. Those were widely believed to be the weakest 3 Democratic seats, and none of them are trailing behind the margin of error. More good news for the Senate. In North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Democrats for the open seat are all holding leads of various margins. And 40+days out, better in front than behind. Just run like you’re 5 points down, and breast the tape.

The persistent problem continues to be in the US House, where all of the major polling sites continue to show it likely that the GOP will flip the House. Although last week, the gold standard, 538.com dropped the GOP chances from 3-1 to 2-1. That’s not good for the GOP this late in the cycle, and shows grassroots movement away from the GOP.

But from here on out, there is one major blind spot for all of these national polling sites, as well as all of the major reputable polls. They’re called trends for a reason. Since WWII, only twice hs the party in power picked up seats in the midterms, Clinton in 1998, and Bush Lite in 2002. That’s a pretty good trend baseline.

But in 1998, the Gingrich controlled House went over the line in trying to impeach President Clinton for a consentual blow job, and the voters spanked him for it. And in 2002, W rode the patriotic wave of 9/11 to increase his majority. In each case, there were mitigating factors. 

And so it is in 2022. A combination of GOP overreach on LGBTQ rights, education indoctrination, voting rights restrictions, and most of all the idiot SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade have sparked an almost historic shift in the electorate. Which leads to the blind spot for major pollint sites and outlets.

And the blind spot is new voter registration. Almost every single reputable polling site of group gets their polling pool from the various states registered voter rolls on file with the individual state’s Secretary of State’s office. And there’s this year’s donut hole. They look for voters who have voted in at least 1 of the last 2-3 elections to show good faith. The problem is that none of the newly registered voters will make their cut.

And this year, there have been a bumper crop of newly registered voters, in most major categories. And because, even if their names come up, the fact that they haven’t voted in at least 12 election will disqualify them from the pollsters roster. Let’s look at who’s missing, shall we?

• Georgia grassroots organizations are showing that they have registered some 70,000 new voters since the 2020 election cycle. And since grassroots organizations are likely minority voters, they’re likely missing from the call list
• Almost every battleground state is showing a seismic increase in the number of registrations for new woman voters. Since the GOP hasn’t really altered their messaging since 2016, it’s a fair bet that these women are motivated by the overturning of Roe v Wade, and a natural hatred for Trump and his minions
• There are more than 4 million teenage voters who turned 18 since 2020. And David Hogg and his March for our Lives movement is hell bent to register and motivate every one of them to finish the job on an assault weapons ban. Add to that the fact that nobody who’s 18-25 wants the next 25 years of their lives ruined by a youthful indiscretion that results in a pregnancy, and you double the fun
• Grassroots activists in southern and southwestern states like Arizona and Texas are showing strong new voter registration. Especially in Texas, with Abbott bussing legal asylum seekers to places like Chicago, Washington DC, and Chicago with no advance warning, and his callous response to the Uvalde massacre, he isn’t making any new friends amongst the Latinos

Look, the reputable polling websites and polling organizations are doing the best to provide legitimate numbers and data. But they’re almost all hamstrung by their own internal processes. They deal with trends, recognizable data that allows them to prophesy an eventual outcome. But this year, there are forces brewing out there that are beyond their control, But also beyond their own internal matrices to control and account and account for. From here on out, take everything with a grain of salt.