The Great Screenwriter In The Sky is doing a real plot twist on this Super Tuesday night. If you’ve been watching returns at all, you know that Donald Trump held a slim lead on Nikki Haley for most of the evening. Then, with about 35% of the vote counted, Haley took the lead. This is on the same night that only 65.4% of Virginia Republicans voted for Trump. That was not a good sign in Trump world, but then the Biden team came up with this and it is painful.

If you’ve spent any kind of time in Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, that general area, there is a rawboned Yankee pragmatism to those people. Maybe it’s the harsh winters, who knows, but they’re tough and resilient people and character counts. And Donald Trump has no character. The Republicans in Vermont are making their views known on that.

Now what remains to be seen is whether this lead of Haley’s holds and if this is repeated in other states. Because the undeniable fact of the matter is that Trump has a large number of Republicans who have not voted for him in the primaries to date and are saying that they won’t vote for him.

2024 is a totally different situation than 2016 was. In 2016, Trump was a terrible candidate but he had the endorsement of the GOP and so, to a lot of Republicans, he was going to be okay on that basis. But as you heard the gal say at the end, she regretted her vote almost immediately. Trump represents extremist loonies, not any kind of recognizable Republican agenda.

Whatever happens with Haley from here on out, she’s done enough damage. And it’s not really her. She’s not a terrific candidate, except up against an abysmal candidate like Trump. It’s the fact that any Republican staying in the race this far has exposed the schism in the Republican party. There is a terrible schism in the GOP right now. And whatever Trump is, he is no unifier. He is a divider.

Plus, him declaring that all Haley supporters were excommunicated from MAGA was probably the stupidest thing he ever did. I’m willing to bet that even he regrets saying it now.

And this is the secondest stupid thing that Trump has ever said and this was only a few days ago.

I’ll tell you what I think: I think Trump’s dementia has progressed to such a level that he is simply beyond reason. Any sane politician does not ignore a schism in the base like this –or if they do, they live to do a post mortem on how and why they lost the election. That we have seen.

Trump won in 2016 for a number of reasons and you know them all:

  1. The pendulum of politics swings back after an eight-year period with one party in power, almost always;
  2. Hillary had a lot of baggage from what she called “the vast right-wing conspiracy.” A 20-year hit job had gone on against her.
  3. Hillary had her own issues. She never had Bill’s charm or common touch. Not being critical, just candid.
  4. Trump was something nobody had ever seen. He won a lot of votes because people simply wanted to see what he would do, like Jesse Venture and Arnold Schwarzenegger, celebrities turned politician, before him.
  5. Trump was running as the outsider. Now he can’t do that anymore.

Add them all together, it does not add up to a picture of winning. Plus, don’t forget the results of the past three elections in the era of Trump.

I’ve never seen a marshmallow roast itself until now. And already the demented spins on this night are starting to come in.

The tweet ends, “Republican voters say they won’t vote for Trump in the general. But sure, Trump is doing great…”

You’ll know how bad Trump really feels about all this either tomorrow or later in the week when he starts talking about this election being rigged. That’s Trump’s tell when he’s terrified, he starts talking about stolen elections.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Just wait til he’s in criminal court and he also has to sell property to pay these judgements. It will look like the demolition video of a large building collapsing when they blow the foundation supports.

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  2. Losing even a small state like Vermont will be a blow to Trump’s ego. However, it’s midnight out east and with over 90% of the vote counted there Haley is at 50.1%. Why this matters is if she gets 50% or more she sweeps ALL the delegates. Losing as I said will wound Trump’s ego but not getting ANY delegates will freak him the hell out. It’s going to be close and we might not know for a day or two as absentee votes get counted. It will be interesting to see how much Trump talks about this tomorrow. There ae states where Trump will sweep delegates BUT if Haley can do it to HIM in even one it will steal some of his thunder. Hell, it will eat him up inside! He could wind up giving her a boost.

    I keep thinking back to my article about AFP publicly announcing it was pulling the plug on supporting Haley. I will always believe had they waited she’d be doing quite a bit more damage to him tonight than has turned out to be the case. Soft Trump voters in the GOP and conservative leaning independents who USED to be GOPers were, at least until AFP kneecapped her looking to vote for Haley to keep her as an alternative because at least she in theory had a chance if something happened between now and the convention. Loss of not just AFP’s money but their organizational/logistical operation probably had those voters ready to vote for her “she’s got no chance now so why waste my vote?”

    And that’s been that. Again, Vermont is tiny but had it not been for this I’m convinced Haley could have at least made a race out of it in Colorado for a number of reasons. THAT would have, even if she didn’t win but was within say ten points of Trump (which I think would have been possible) caused not just Trump but the entire media to freak the hell out. Oh well, as the saying goes “Of all sad things of tongue and pen, the saddest is this: what might have been.”

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