Two Sound Political Reasons To Not Coronate Trump Just Yet In The Primaries

Whenever you see or hear them talking about a long odds sporting event about to be played, some sports nabob always responds with the same six words, That’s why they play the games. And sports is chock-a-block full of the exceptions. Remember Seabiscuit. Remember the 1980 US Olympic hockey team. Remember the 2017 Las Vegas Golden Knights. Please God, don’t remember the 1969 New York Mets. That’s why they play the games.

And believe it or not, there’s a totally relevant political example of what I’m talking about. Two of them. The first is President Harry Truman’s reelection campaign against Thomas Dewey. Truman was a dead man walking. In fact, at one point late at night the Chicago Tribune jumped the gun and posted a late night extra screaming out from the front page Dewey Wins! Lordy, Lordy, how Truman loved holding that headline up the next day.

The second example I was actually alive for, and voted in. Pop Quiz! Why did Bill Clinton run against George HW Bush in 1992? Actually for two reasons. First, as a young, largely nationally unknown governor from a rural state, he wanted to raise his national name recognition and fundraising potential for a 1996 run. Second, no other Democrat with national aspirations wanted to run in 1992. Why?

Because Bush was basically untouchable. Coming off of being the architect and commander in chief of the incredibly successful Operation Desert Storm, Bush’s popularity rating was in the low to mid 70% range. No Democrat with national ambitions wanted a rerun of Reagan-McGovern. But Clinton took the chance.

And then came the almost inevitable post war recession, as the economy contracted as defense industries stopped making such an insane amount or wartime sh*t. Bush’s popularity plummeted, he mishandled the crisis and his popularity dropped even further, and in November of 1992, George HW Bush became only the second sitting President to lose a reelection campaign.

I bring up this history lesson simply because suddenly, out of nowhere, some of the same dynamics that altered presidential history in the past are starting to possibly come into alignment again. And it could just be that Tot may be in for a much harder run to the roses than anybody thought possible even three months ago.

For starters, right now a recent national poll showed His Lowness leading second place Nikki Haley by almost 50 poin ts. But, nag that I am, I must remind y’all that just as we don’t elect a President by the national popular vote, it’s the Electoral College of the 50 states, the GOP primaries aren’t resolved by a national ballot, but by the assignment of conventional delegates from the 50 states. And that’s where El Pendejo Presidente’s problems may lie.

Haley is a much better, stronger opponent than she was even a month ago. This is because she snagged the brass ring, the endorsement from the Koch Industries political arm, Americans for Prosperity. And not only their monetary support, and their Super PAC influence, but their on the ground grassroots organization give her muscle in places she may not even have been able to seriously compete without them.

Also, with AFP involved, I’m sure that Haley’s tenure in the race is a marathon, not a sprint. The Koch brother is going to use Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign against Hillary Clinton as the template. Stay in all the way to the convention, and force Trump to use time and resources engaging with her. And as I’ll explain momentarily below, that may just be the secret sauce that puts FrankenTrump in the hurt locker.

Trump is almost certainly going to win Iowa, and Haley knows it. And while she did her due diligence in showing up the requisite number of times, she didn’t overextend herself in an uphill struggle with little return on investment.

But while Haley trails Trump by almost 50 points nationally, in New Hampshire she is within 14 points of Trump. And if she can close in the next weeks to finish second, within 6-8 points of Hair Twitler, she leaves NH with a spring in her step, and goes home to South Carolina.

And here come the two points where the rubber meets the road, and The Mango Messiah has potential problems. because while the vast majority of GOP states are winner take all states for delegate allocation, they also have a sizeable number of open primary states to deal with, meaning that any voter can walk into the polls and request a primary ballot from either side.

And the word is already out in the Democratic underground communication system. Biden doesn’t have a primary opponent, he’s on cruise control for renomination. So the birds are twittering that all Democratic and independent voters should cast GOP ballots in the primary, and vote for Nikki Haley. The more the merrier.

Because it isn’t the expectation of either the Democrats of AFP that Haley can actually pull off the miracle long shot. No, the goal is to collect enough delegates in non winner take all states, and enough delegates from winning open primary states to deny Trump the requisite number of delegates to win on the first ballot. That would force a messy open convention, and we’ve all seen in the GOP US House as to how they react to pressure and dissent.

And here’s why this could turn out to be such a game changer. As I wrote yesterday, suddenly there is a real chance that The Cheeto Prophet may be tossed back to the wolves. Every court, from state and federal district courts, to appellate courts and even Supreme Courts regularly receive Amicus Briefs on cases with major issues. Normally the judges read the briefs, nod their heads, and go on to do whatever they had planned to do in the first place.

But not this time. The Amicus Brief filed claiming that the DC appellate court had no business taking Trump’s absolute immunity appeal simple because it was premature, since Trump hasn’t actually been convicted of anything yet seems to have caught fire. To the point that the dC appellate court has ordered both sides to show up next Tuesday prepared to argue the merits of that brief. That can mean only one thing. The judges are seriously considering the merits of that argument, and want to heat both sides arguments on its validity.

If the DC appellate court rules that Trump’s appeal is premature, it’s all over for The Tubby Guru. The court will order the case returned to Judge Chutkan for trial. There is no reason for the Supreme Court to take any action, since the appellate court ruled the appeal invalid, and every reason to take no action at all. As I wrote yesterday, that decision conforms to normal court protocol for filing an appeal, and it buys the Supreme Court 1-2 years for the case to wind its way through the trial and appellate process before they have to decide on whether on not to weigh in.

And if that happens, then all. bets. are. off. Because starting on March 4th, while Nikki Haley is running around running her campaign, Trump is going to spending five days a week sitting in a DC courtroom fighting for his freedom. Which is going to present a real risk to an obese, lazy 77 year old man, spending 5 days a week in a high pressure courtroom setting, then spending the next two days jetting around, desperately trying to campaign. Can you say coronary attack risk boys and girls?

And here’s the McGuffin. While The Pampers President has overwhelming support from more traditional, non Trombie voters, two recent national polls have shown that while they intend to vote for Trump, if Trump were convicted of a crime, that would be an instant off ramp for them.

The trial won’t be televised, either by streaming or by live audio. But once the trial starts, the news nationwide is going to be covered with the day’s newest testimony and evidence. And for at least the first 4-6 weeks, that will be the prosecutions case. And as the avalanche of compelling, damaging evidence comes crashing down around Trump’s head, how many of that 30% decide to cut bait now and vote for an alternate candidate in then primaries to make their votes relevant in November?

You’re such a lovely audience, we’d like to take you home with us, we’d like to take you home with us. Or at least I would, just so long as it’s BYOB.

Look, nobody, especially me really expects to see Nikki Haley taking the oath of office next January. But when you look at the way the dominoes are being laid out, at least the potential exists for a Miracle on Ice, or the goddamned Miracle Mets of 1969. And that alone may be enough to make the 2024 GOP much more interesting in a serious way than the Klown Kar Circus of 2016. Don’t touch that dial.

Thank you for the privilege of your time.