Trump May Be Gearing Up For His Waterloo At CPAC. Here’s Why

This weekend’s annual CPAC conference, which seems more like bloody quarterly these days should be a dream come true for Trump, a chance to put all these primary pipsqueaks in their place right off the bat. After all, CPAC is Trump’s meat-and-potatoes base.

But not so fast. As the song goes, The CPAC air just ain’t what it used to be. Much like the era of Trump in the GOP, the era of world renowned mental midget Matt Schlapp as President of CPAC has been less than stellar. CPAC these days is more like the space cantina in Star Wars where Luke Skywalker meets Han Solo. In the past few years;

• They had some clown wheeling around a life size gold gilt bust of Traitor tot, where you could get your picture taken next to it for a modest fee
• At another CPAC convention Schlapp tinpot dictator Victor Orban thrill the right with his far right neo-Nazi claptrap
• And this year, Schlapp himself is casting a pall over the event amid a nasty scandal involving allegations that he repeatedly groped a male staffer on the Herschel Walker campaign. It is unclear if Schlapp ever coached college wrestling

As a result of the Schlapp stench, a lot of more moderate conservative politicians and activists have put CPAC on their Must Miss list. So it isn’t like His Lowness is going up against the varsity squad here, especially since there’s a competing conference going on at the same time, one which pointedly didn’t invite Trump to speak.

But this is still a critical appearance for Trump, especially the CPAC Straw Poll. That poll will also include conservatives not appearing at CPAC like Haley, DeSantis, and Pence. And Trump needs to crush it. Because recent straw polls have not been particularly kind to The Trumpster Fire in state GOP convention polls. If Trump can’t dominate here, he’s in deep kim-chi.

But there is good reason to believe that Hair Twitler may be about to step on a rake. When I played hockey, our season normally ended in March. Followed by too much pizza, too many McRibs, and not enough workouts. Training camp in October was a painful but needed ritual to knock off the ring rust and get back in game shape. But since inauguration day of 2021;

• Trump has largely stayed in his bunker, probably just short of the 12th green at Mar-A-Lago, contenting himself with rare phone in appearances to far right media, and his personal toy Bullshit Central
• Trump’s own campaign announcement was a world class face plant. Held in a ballroom at his McResort, surrounded by his best friends and supporters, Trump was so dull and wooden that security had to lock the doors to keep Trump from speaking to an empty room
• In his rare solo public appearances he has likewise appeared at small venues like a fundraiser, or a state GOP meeting, with hundreds of people instead of the marquis sports arenas he used to fill
• During the 2022 midterms, in appearances at rallies for his anointed ones, it was regularly reported that Trump ranted on, with the original crowd already dribbling away at the midway point

I can see at least one reason for this without even seriously looking. in his post 2020 campaign appearances, Trump has largely gone to the teleprompter. Which isn’t Trump. The Trump that filled 25,000 seat stadiums was free and unfettered, crude and obnoxious, the Andrew Dice Clay of politics. And that’s the Trump that needs to reappear, most riki-tik if he’s going to regain his mojo and rabid base.

Which is why I wrote all the way back in December that Der Gropinfuror was making a serious tactical mistake. After announcing, Trump needed to hit the trail at least every two weeks, doing a rally, unchained by the teleprompter and knocking off the ring rust. Think of it as training camp. But Trump has pissed that opportunity away, and now it’s too late.

Here’s the other reason that El Pendejo Presidente may be heading for a trip off of cliff. Anybody who knows Trump knows that he has the attention span of a two week old puppy. That’s why Trump can’t use the teleprompter, he’s hard wired for spontaneity and free association. And as a former stand up comic, who lived or died on audience ad lib, I can tell you that needs to be kept sharp. And Trump 2.0 is anything but ad lib.

Here’s the 2nd reason. Right now The Cheeto Prophet has more on his plate than his first trip to the table at a Golden Corral buffet. The NY AG lawsuit, the Fulton County grand jury, the Manhattan DA grand jury, the twin edged DOJ J6 and stolen documents probe, among others. And for someone who shoots-from-the-lip, those distractions will be debilitating.

Here’s how I see the first couple of major Trump rallies playing out. trump will instinctively go to his old stand by first. Stop The Steal! Trump is hogtied to being The Biggest Loser of 2020. And that’s the one thing nobody wants to hear anymore. Even his hard core base wants to hear about how he’s going to kick Biden’s ass in 2024. But what they’re going to get is his standard 2020 redux, and an hour of self pitying grievance about his never ending persecution in all of these Witch Hunts!

It will be interesting to see if The Mango Messiah uses a teleprompter at CPAC, and if he does, how often he wanders off of it. But I’ll tell you this. The last three polls I’ve seen are not good news for Trump. One had him over DeSantis 42-27, another one had him u0p by 43-35. If Trump can’t dominate the CPAC Straw Poll by at least 30 points over a bunch of slobs who didn’t even show up to speak, he might want to just stay home, fundraise for his criminal defense, and wait for his eventual perp walk. Stick a pin in this one.