Once again, the laws of political physics have been suspended. Think of waking up in the morning and finding yourself floating. You then turn on the TV, itself floating, and the announcer tells you that the law of gravity stopped working during the night. You wouldn’t believe it, but hey, if you kept floating, what could you say?
Likewise, it is somewhat of an amazing announcement that for the first time ever, a sitting president’s party is actually coming up in the polls to do well during the first term midterm election. This you do not see.
And what happened to the red tsunami? You know, the hahahahahahaha wipeout that was predicted only a short while ago? That fantasy is gone. Here’s what’s really happening, according to Dana Milbank.
Democrats just gained a small (0.5 percentage points) advantage over Republicans in what’s known as the “generic ballot” — when voters are asked which party’s candidate they will support for Congress. Earlier this year, Democrats had trailed by as many as 2.7 points, according to the political website FiveThirtyEight. Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO, ran the numbers and found that, going back a quarter-century, the incumbent president’s party almost always found its position deteriorating at this point. (The lone exception was 2018, when Republicans did poorly all year.)
Also, polls show Democratic voter “enthusiasm” pulling even in recent weeks with Republican levels, erasing an earlier gap. And the data are supported by anecdotal evidence: high Democratic turnout in contested primaries, a lopsided rejection of an antiabortion measure in Kansas, and Democratic candidates’ dramatic outperformance of Joe Biden’s 2020 showing in recent special elections in Minnesota and Nebraska.
What happened was, blessed be, the FBI showing up at Mar-a-Lago last week, search warrant in hand. The breaking news story of Trump galavanting out of Washington, boxes filled with a melange of Kim Jong Un’s love letters, Air Force one schematics, raincoats, and God help us, nuclear secrets brought back every nightmare of the four long years of Trump that we collectively slogged through, insane from Day One to the bitter end.
Republican lawmakers and candidates, and their Fox News echo chamber, have again wrapped themselves around the former president with their hysterical reaction to the court-ordered search of Mar-a-Lago. Their violent talk (followed by threats and actual violence), their attacks on the rule of law (“destroy the FBI”), their conspiracy theories (the FBI planted evidence?) and their reckless defense of the indefensible (possibly pilfering nuclear secrets) are all reruns of the Trump presidency. Republican officials did much the same when faced with the damning revelations of the Jan. 6 committee.
Extremist candidates — some with ties to QAnon, the Oath Keepers or the events of Jan. 6 — are dominating Republican primaries. Scores of election deniers have become GOP nominees for governor, secretaries of state and other positions. The few truth-tellers have been banished; with Tuesday’s likely defeat of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), eight of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will be leaving Congress.
Midterm elections notably have less of a turnout than presidential elections but that political law of physics is also not functioning as usual.
Now signs point to another high-turnout election. Republican voters were already fired up before the Mar-a-Lago search. Now, Democratic voters (many of whom were frustrated at the lack of accountability for Trump despite the revelations of the Jan. 6 committee) appear to be matching them in passion.
Back in early February, when Democrats were in the doldrums, Podhorzer, the former AFL-CIO political director, wrote: “When voters believe that the election is ‘about’ Trump, turnout soars — but more so among his opponents than among his supporters.”
You know what would make this even better? Trump might as well announce his candidacy. Yes, Ronna McDaniel said she would cut off the financial spigot from the RNC, which has been paying Trumpty’s legal bills, but she might have a change of heart. After all, she and Trump both started fundraising for the way out senate candidates after last week’s bombshell.
One thing is certain: the GOP is flying blind. They always have been where Trump is concerned. Lindsey Graham was one of the few clear eyed spectators back in the day when he said Trump would destroy the Republican party. And he was right.
This version of the GOP is headed down the drain. My prediction is that a new GOP is going to have to form, much as the Republican party of today forged itself out of the Whigs of the 1800’s. The 2022 Republicans have no platform other than own the libs and political circus only gets you so far. The intelligentsia of the Republican party abandoned ship years ago. Either conservatism as we once understood that term is dead, or it will rise from the ashes of what’s left of the GOP after Trump is done totally nuking it. We may see that happen in November.
I’m still far from confident when it comes to the House, but I’m far from despondent as well. Every time Trump takes a piss in the GOP punchbowl our chances improve. It’s actually possible to pull off the political miracle of holding the House. It won’t be easy with the GOP having continued to improve their voter suppression tactics and outright threats and armed intimidation will be in clear evidence this fall. Add to that the tactics of intimidation of election judges (many deciding to quit due to the threats) and legislation to allow never before see interference in the counting of votes and simply getting more votes won’t be enough. We will have to overwhelm the system.
But it’s possible and as I said the more Trump demands the spotlight and insists on making it about him the more our side will be motivated so we have an actual chance.
The Senate? We should be on pace to wind up with 53 or even 54 Senators and the ability to tell Manchin and Sinema to go away and fuck themselves. Sadly, some of the same things I mentioned will come into play in Senate races and I fear RoJo the Clown will hold his seat in WI despite the RNC yanking ad buys there. The money they’ve pulled from AZ and PA indicates they’ve written those races off so Kelly will hold his set and we’ll pick up a seat in PA. Some of that money will probably to the AZ Governor’s race, but I’m guessing the GOP is taking a hard look at where I live and will make a major investment to hold Burr’s seat for a Republican successor. Cheri Beasley is in ok shape for now but it’s going to get real ugly real fast and I’m not as hopeful as I once was. I fear the GOP will pull this one out.
Then there’s GA. It’s incredible that Walker is withing even twenty points of Warnock but keep an eye on this race. It will go down to the wire and you can bet the farm Kemp and Raffensburger will pull out all the stops to sleaze Walker into a win – and maybe save themselves from condemnation and threats for the rest of their lives for doing so. Never, ever forget GA is the south were football ranks up their with Jesus. There’s an old saying in southern states (including GA) that the main sport is football (referring to the college game as much as the pros) and the second sport that matters is spring football. (for those who don’t know college teams have a spring football set of practices and an inter-squad game at the end) Other stuff ranks way the fuck behind and many a football fan (which is damned near everyone in GA) will go to the polls and cast their vote for Walker who dropped his home state like a bad habit after college and wouldn’t be back there now if not for this Senate race. But he IS an icon in that state due to his leading Georgia to a national championship. Trust me, that covers all manner of shortcomings, sins and even crimes in a state like GA. So regardless of what any polling says don’t be surprised if the GOP flips this seat back.
I still think the odds are good we can at least maintain the status quo in the Senate but if the GOP manages to retake the House there will be precious few ties for VP Harris to break.
so chilling: if they can seize the passports of a criminal ex-president, they can seize the passports of any criminal
As of today, it looks like Donald Trumps “Dream Team I” is going to be busy with indictments, so “Dream Team II” of lawyers are going to be quite an expense if the RNC can afford it. I don’t think they can. And when they stop paying the bills, which they will have to soon if there’s going to be ANY money left for a Republican candidate that has two thumbs. On the plus side, there are fewer Republicans with two thumbs thanks to Trump.
NPR had a republican strategist or something like that on Morning Edition today. He seemed to think that while this FBI thing will adversely affect former guy, it will have no bearing on the mid-terms. I’m thinking if dems hammer home the abortion bans and the trump as traitor message, they might just do much better than we once thought. Fact is, a lot depends on the messaging and let’s face it, dems are not masters at this. They could ride these two issues to victory I think especially against the candidates fielded that former guy supports. Of course, had they stayed on message over the past several decades, we might not be in this shitty situation; they do have an uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory after all.