When oh when will this nightmare end? The ghost of 2016 has got everybody running around as nervous as a cat at the vet’s office. Now the airwaves are filled with breast pounding and teeth gnashing about whether or not the sudden open SCOTUS seat left by the tragic passing of Notorious RBG will be the October Surprise that rides to Trump’s salvation with his flagging base.
Please my friends, calm yourselves. As a native Chicagoan to my nearest and dearest buds, let me just say fuckin’ fuggedaboudit! Rather than a knight in shining armor atop a white steed for Trump’s reelection chances, it’s actually a thornier pain in the ass to McConnell and the GOP Senate than any of them wanted.
Here’s why it won’t help him electorally. Trump’s base that is most likely to get nocturnal emissions about another Supreme Court justice is the far right evangelicals. And Trump already has them locked up, tighter than an Alabama tick. They are his most devoted bloc of voters. That’s the nice thing about far right evangelicals, once they scoop the money from the dresser, they’re there for the night. Chocolate sauce, rubber chickens, waddeva rubs ya Buddha. They were already going to turn out for him no matter what.
Where is Trump bleeding support going into the election? College educated whites, white suburban women, senior citizens, and now apparently active duty military personnel. All of these constituencies have much more personal grievances with
Trump, and the thought of another justice is highly unlikely to grudgingly bring them back into his camp. In fact, this could actually turn a blowout into a massacre for Trump and the GOP.
Trump has already promised to appoint, and McConnell to approve, a far right conservative judge that will overturn Roe v Wade. This is actually an untenable position for the GOP as reproductive rights enjoys wide popularity among women, across party lines. Suburban white women who already have an axe to grind with Trump will be even more outraged at the thought of having their personal choice taken away. And even women who might be inclined to vote for trump again in 2020 may find that attitude changing when their reproductive rights are at risk more than they already are.
It also has the chance of sparking a totally unexpected backlash vote against Trump from a totally different direction. The Biden camp is going balls-to-the-wall to drive out African American votes to take back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and capture the White House. And as far as black voters are concerned, if the risk of losing the last 50 years of hard fought civil rights gains isn’t a supreme motivator to get out and vote, then brother, I don’t know what is.
So calm, my friends, maintain the chi of your day. This seat opening up at this time is not the magic panacea for all that ails the Trump campaign. Far from it. In fact, it might well end up being the straw that broke the orangutan’s back, taking the Senate with it.
I sure hope you’re right, Murf. The last bit of punditry I heard was that Lagoa, in Florida, being Hispanic and from Florida was going to get that vote for him. Or that Coney Barrett, the extremist wingnut, would lock down more votes. What a zoo.
Murf – I’m going to say b.s. on this. Reason: SCOTUS let Bush win over Gore. I hope you’re right but it’s possible that due to having to count the mail in votes blah blah blah, SCOTUS (corrupted, compromised) can vote him in.
Even if Lindsey and any of the other, up for vote Senators let a SCOTUS go through and they lose their position – who gives a shit. They got their 5th conservative judge.
But here’s the McGuffin on that line of logic…They don’t NEED to fill that seat…The current layout is 5-3 conservat9ive, so there would be no tie unless a conservative flipped on the vote…
But, Murf, you need to consider the fact that Roberts has frequently played “swing” vote on a LOT of the Court’s big cases since Gorsuch, and more importantly Kavanaugh, were appointed (and Gorsuch has shown a little more “independence” on a couple of cases than he was “expected” to show) so the “conservative” bent has been muted.
It’s been suggested that Roberts hasn’t really appreciated the shenanigans that Trump and the Senate GOPers have been playing as far as the Court goes so he’s been “swinging” as a way of preserving (or simply establishing) HIS legacy as Chief Justice. But, let Trump and the far-right get ANOTHER nominee and we’re liable to see Roberts finally “concede” since any swing vote won’t make any real difference with a standard 6-3 conservative bent. I can’t imagine Roberts (as Chief Justice) would want to be on the “losing” side of any votes, even (or especially) to stand on “principle.”
Yes Joseph, but mostly ecause that mantle was thrust on him by the ascension of Brewski Brett Kavanaugh to the bench…With Kennedy there, Roberts could vote his heart…But not with Trump claiming that he had “bought” the court with his choices…
If Biden wins AND the Democrats take the Senate, couldn’t the new administration change the make-up of the Supreme Court, e.g. there was talk of increasing its numbers to 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and several with no party affiliation. Wouldn’t this be an option for the Democrats if the Republicans want to play dirty and ram another nomination and vote through before the election? It could be payback for what they did to Merrick Garland.
Read the articvle I just posted, my friend…It’s a deep dive into exactly that subjext…
Increasing the court to 9 – it’s supposed to be non-partisan, though the Federalists will never ever admit it.
Maybe they could still get Garland on a larger SCOTUS!
Go ahead, Mitch, step on the electoral grenade.
Murph, the only part of this article that I take issue with is that the White evangelical “wimmun” who voted for tRump the first time did so for a lot of deep-seated reasons most of us will never understand, and unless each of them has been in daily therapy since November 9, 2016, they aren’t going to change their minds about the Slimeball In Chief over a SCOTUS appointment. Just sayin’….
No telling how this will play out. But, as it stands right now, Democrats are united, and donations are pouring in. Republicans are divided on whether, and when, to vote on a potential nominee. The rabid RW media are pushing for a confirmation before Nov. 3, never mind that it will hurt vulnerable GOP candidates. A delay will make McConnell and Trump look weak.
SCOTUS could try to throw the election, but only up to a point. Any blatantly political ruling would tarnish the court’s image and influence. Roberts would not let that happen.
I don’t know if it,helps or,hurts. I think that’s unknowable, and there’s enough to stress over without stressing over things we can’t know.
Where I’m cautiously optimistic is that a significant portion of Trump’s coalition is pro-choice. Specifically non-evangelical, non-college white women. That sounds like a pretty small slice of the electorate, but is it? 42% are non-college whites, so 21% are non-college white women. How much of that is non-evangelical? I’d think we’re looking at roughly 8-10% of the electorate…and a group that is packed into the swing states.
Indeed, as Cook reports, the CCES 2016 data show that 22% of Trump’s voters are definitely pro-choice. This seems to back up the non-college white female voter theory.
So I tend to agree that putting a SCOTUS seat with Roe in the balance at this moment isn’t helpful to Trump. But is reproductive rights via court appointees something that will cut through the other noise and motivate people? I have no idea.
I think you are right on in your analysis. The racist are for Trump already, but it is going to piss off a lot of other people. The SCOTUS has a much higher approval than the other branches of government. If it goes full fascist, that isn’t going to last.
As to the mid-west, Michael Moore was on Alex Witt’s show today complaining they can’t get yard signs in Michigan. He said they are making hand made ones. They cost $25.00 at the Biden store.
I sure hope you’re right, Murf. The last bit of punditry I heard was that Lagoa, in Florida, being Hispanic and from Florida was going to get that vote for him. Or that Coney Barrett, the extremist wingnut, would lock down more votes. What a zoo. http://www.jobztip.com