Don’t give up on the GOP primaries having a little tingle of excitement in them just yet. There was a new NBC News/Des Moines Register poll on the GOP Iowa caucuses today. That poll is largely considered as the gold standard in Iowa polling.

On the surface it’s about what you would expect. Traitor Tot is dominating the field with 43%. But the surprise is that Flop Gov dropped 4 points while Nikki Hayley jumped 10 points, putting them in a 16% tie. My personal favorite is the fact that The Ratty Swami is mired at 4%, behind Chris Christie, who is about as popular as cooties with the GOP faithful.

But that being said, it isn’t all wine and roses for Traitor Tot, for one simple reason. I long ago learned that the top line numbers in a poll are like the headline in a newspaper story. It gives you the obvious, but if you want the down and dirty, you have to read the article.

And in polling, the down and dirty is in the sub tabs. And since I want the offsets, that’s where I look. And Traitor Tot has a hidden problem for El Pendejo Presidente in the sub tabs which I don’t think he’s even aware of, since he’s busy insulting judges, and he doesn’t listen to his political advisors.

Here it is. The poll shows that right now Trump has 43% of the Iowa vote. Question. If His Lowness is this monolithic Gollum with dictatorial control of the GOP, then why isn’t he in the 60’s or low 70’s? After all, this is his party. These are his peeps. Mike Pence dropped out of the race because the Evangelicals among whom he was counting on to make up the difference were overwhelmingly for Trump. From where I’m sitting, it doesn’t matter if there are 20 candidates, if Trump owns the show, he should be well above 50%.

But the sub tab is even worse. In that tab they asked candidate voters on just how locked in they were on their candidate. And when that 43% of Trump voters were asked that question, only 63% of them were locked in Trump voters. Let me get this straight. Trump has 43% of the Iowa caucus voters, but 34% of them can be had by another candidate if the circumstances are right? That’s dominance?

Here’s why this is so important. trump is in a lane all by himself, with his slobbering horde. And that’s 43%, but it turns out that only 63% of them are ready to call the preacher. Which leaves the other 67% who have all already soured on Trump, and want somebody else.

And the field is already starting to winnow out. Mike Pence is already toast, so his whopping 2% is up for grabs. Asa Hutchinson should be next up in line, and that’s another 1%. I know, puny spuds. But it all adds up.

I see Trump in trouble in Iowa for one simple reason. He’s not over 50%. Hayley and DeSantis are tied at 16

5. But Hayley just jumped 10 points in a month, that’s going to help her fundraising. Meanwhile Pissantis dropped four points, and there is reporting that his fundraising is dying on the vine, big money donors know a dog candidate when they see one. The most critical thing to remember her is that 57% of Iowa caucus voters are against Trump, otherwise they’d be voting for him.

Let’s say that Nikki Hayley picks up Pence’s 2%, it’s a natural Evangelical fit, and then picks up Hutchinson’s 1% when he bails. That puts Hayley ahead of Pissantis 19-16, and his fundraising dries up even more. The Mukluk Gov has problems at home, and the pressure is soon going to be on for him to quit d*cking around, and get home and go to work.

Let’s say that DeSantis bails, and 14 of his 16% goes to Hayley. Now all of a sudden she’s at 33%, only 10 points behind Trump. And everybody else in the race is still anti Trump, if they drop and Hayley gets those voters, suddenly you have a horse race on your hands.

The next two months are critical, because this time is different from 2016. I know because I was there. In 2016 the 17 man GOP field refused to winnow, and Trump was able to cruise through the early winner take all states and build a delegate lead that was impossible to overcome. And in 2016, while Trump was at 33%, nobody else in the field was in double digits. And the field didn’t coalesce until it was too late.

This time we have two candidates at 16%, and Trump’s support isn’t as maniacal as it was in 2016. If Hayley can capture these early departures votes, and get ahead of Pissantis, then other candidates strictly anti Trump like Christie and Rattaswamy may bail and give their voters to Hayley, increasing the pressure on DeSantis to get out.

It all comes down to the next two months. If the GOP anti Trump voters can coalesce around any single candidate, and right now that candidate looks to me to be Hayley, then Trump is in trouble. Unlike 2016 Trump is unlikely to sweep the early states, Hayley will almost certainly have a firewall in South Carolina. And Trump’s control of his base isn’t as strong as he thinks it is, or he wouldn’t have 34% of his Iowa base still open to vote for somebody else.

And starting in January, His Lowness is going to be distracted. His Manhattan criminal trial is scheduled for late January, and his DC federal trial is scheduled for March 4th. For as long as they last, The Cheeto Prophet will be required to be sitting at the defense table every day, and not out on the campaign trail. And while a criminal conviction in New York would hurt, a federal conviction in March could be fatal with soft Trump voters.

This could be a perfect storm for Trump. This time around he might not have a fractured field to give him easy victories, and his absence from the trail in the primaries may just do him in against a single, motivated opponent. Like I said, don’t give up on the GOP primaries just yet.

As always, I thank you for the privilege of your time.


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  1. Murf, you say Hayley is an evang natural fit but you’re forgetting one thing: evangs are very, very, anti-woman and would not choose one to lead the nation. The ‘pubes just selected for speaker a guy who wants to rid the country of no-fault divorce (among other 20-21 century ideas) and texass wants to put forth those kind of laws at the state level. These are not people who would accept a woman running the entire country and I would bet everything I own you could go to one or another evang church on any given sunday and hear just how evil they find that concept. I don’t think having a female V.P. helped McCain with the evangs and it likely hurt him and not just because she is a moron. To evangs, having a female one heart-attack away from the oval is one heart-attack too close.



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