The Trump Small Donor Well Is Running Dry

There’s a lake made of stew, and of whiskey too. You can paddle all around ’em in a big canoe   The Big Rock Candy Mountain

I have written about this a couple of times already in a more speculative vein, but it’s starting to look like the glass is empty, the table has been cleared, and the waiter just plunked the check down in front of one Traitor Tot.

Previously I wrote how Traitor Tot was a daily disaster of the GOP and RNC when it came to fundraising. On the one hand you have deep pocket donors who are refusing to get off of their wallets and donate to the RNC as long as Trump is on the ballot in 2024, cutting off the major source of income for the TNC, while at the same time His Lowness has a nipple lock on the small donor teat. And the only ones he’s interested in sharing with are his lawyers.

It’s no longer just a hypothesis of mine, it’s now a verifiable fact. As Chris Hayes showed tonight on All In, both the RNC as well as the Trump campaign are in the sh*tter. In the most recent FEC filing, the RNC had to admit that they had a paltry $40 million in cash on hand. The DNC has $155 million lying around collecting dust. But here’s the funny one. The Trump campaign raised about $22 million in January. Joe Biden’s campaign raised $2 million in the 24 hours following the SOTU.

And it gets so much worse. I get amused because not only do I get daily mooch meters by text from Democratic candidates, due to my past donations, but I get 3-4 a day from the DNC alone. Instant delete. But according to research, the Trump campaign all alone sends out 10-12 text and e-mails a day.

But there’s a big difference. Any of you who get them know that the DNC and Democratic aligned texts are largely inspirational. They may raise an alarm or two, but are uplifting about the ability to get the job done. The Trump campaign texts are like a stage 4 cancer diagnosis. Oh, God! President Trump is going under! The Biden far left deep state is trying to drive Trump broke, so he can’t become President again! We desperately need your help! And remember, President Trump is fighting this battle so that you don’t have to! So, come on! Pony up! Now read that 10-12 times a day.

I’ve been saying for months now that Trump has been treating his small donor base like The Big Rock Candy Mountain. A bottomless lake of cash that he can dip into on command. But we all know that’s not true. Any Ponzi scam, no matter how large or well run, can only exist as long as there’s a fresh well of suckers to keep the cash flowing.

Memo To El Pendejo Presidente: They’re called Small Money Donors. They haven’t spent decades scamming banks and investors silly. They donate small amounts because they don’t have large amounts just laying around in equity funds. The Democrats learned the secret sauce years ago. Send out daily or near daily pleas for a donation, be polite, and wait for them to have some of the spare ready to send in. Thanks to Trump’s arrogance, his texts are more like demands, and the donation is proof of the donors loyalty to Trump. But what happens when the donation demand pits loyalty to Traitor Tot against paying the rent and feeding the kids?

Here’s what. According to FEC comparisons, Trump’s small money donor haul is down 19% from the same time a year ago. And it gets worse. If you want to go back far enough, you discover that Trump’s small donor money haul is down a whopping 63% of where it was going into the same period of 2019.

Which shouldn’t amaze anybody. After all, Trump’s base has been shrinking steadily ever since January 21st, 2017. That’s why the Democrats have been able to open up a can of Whoop Ass for the last three cycles. One reason is what has become known as Trump fatigue. His more moderate voters have sickened of the nonstop bullsh*t and drama. Well, I’m coining a new phrase right her and now. Trump’s small money donors are finally starting to suffer from Trump Donor fatigue. They’re finally wearing down from the daily barrage of threats, begging and cajoling to plunk down some cash to Glorious Bleater.

There is nothing to indicate that the situation for either Traitor tot or the RNC is going to improve anytime soon. Normally parties fundraise aggressively during the off election years, to build a war chest for the election years. Case in point. The Democrats have a $155 million bank account right now as opposed to the RNC’s $20 million. That’s barely enough to pay the normal operating expenses for a national organization. And here’s why it’s critical.

back in 2022 Trump anointed two stone cold losers, Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker to run for the Senate in Pennsylvania and Georgia. These were eyed as prime pick up seats for the GOP. But neither man had ever run for office before, had no experienced staff or campaign organization, and no fundraising arm in place. So it fell to the NRSC and the RNC to spend the money to get trainers on the ground to set up campaigns, and start at least a fledgling fundraising arm. It cost tens of millions, and the RNC got a 0% Return On Investment, since both candidates got their asses kicked.

This is not likely to be repeated in 2024, simply because the RNSC and RNC don’t have any f*cking money! Case in point. And hour ago or so, some MAGAt ass clown named Moreno won the GOP Senate primary in Ohio to try to get rid of three term Senator Sherrod Brown. His political credentials are golden. He’s a car dealer. But he’s smart enough to do a Neil-and-Bob anytime Trump is in the vicinity. But like Oz and Walker, he has no organization or experience, and no fundraising mechanism in place.

Brown has long been a massive thorn in the side of Ohio Republicans. When he last ran in 2018, the RNC, NRSC and aligned groups spent some $100 million trying to take Brown down. He spent about $20 million and won by 6 points. This year, the RNC isn’t going to be able to afford to rent storefront office space for him, much less staff, educate, fundraise, and get a ground game going. That’s why Democratic groups funneled money into ads making Moreno look like the most conservative MAGAt in the primaries. This is why Sherrod Brown has the edge for once in a race.

And as I keep warning you, this is going to be repeated in race after race in 2024, House as well as Senate. The Trump campaign has already admitted that they’ll be outspent by Biden this year, maybe by as much as $100 million. A national organization should go into the general election season with at least a $350-400 million bankroll, and then fundraise like hell through the general election. And the RNC has a lousy $20 million in the bank.

Because forget about the advertising. What $155 million, or $350-400 million buys you is a freakin’ ground game! It gets you the staff and fundraisers for fledgling candidates, it gets you storefront offices for call bankers and neighborhood door knocking volunteers to use to get together and get their assignments. It gets you venues for events. The Democrats can do all of that on a national scale, the RNC? Not so much.

And whether he likes it or not, it’s going to effect Traitor Tot too, whether he likes it or admits it or not. One thing to never forget is that the Tromvies are by nature Trump junkies, cult devotees, and if you’re going to keep them in line, they need near constant feeding and stroking.

And as Katy Tur pointed out today on MSNBC, mass rallies are pertty goddamn expensive. It costs money to rent the venue, money for an insurance bond, pay for the people who work the gates and take the tickets, the vendors, paying the city for police and streets and sanitation overtime. And Trump’s small donations are down 63% from five years ago. Which will it be, boy? Mass rallies in September and October, or pay your lawyers? Hell, you can always go with a publicly defender.

Ain’t payback a bitch? For eight years Traitor Tot looked at his small donor base as his personal piggy bank, creating a Leadership PAC that he could tap more easily for personal expenses. That can’t help him now. Super PAC’s are forbidden from coordinating with campaigns, so they can’t pay for a rally site for him, or participate in any way.

Trump needs two things desperately right now. He desperately needs to return to the White House so he can dodge his legal problems. And from herre on out, it only becomes more expensive as his lawyers spend more time in court, at a higher rate than prep time. But in order to get back to the White House, he also needs to hold frequent mass rallies, which cost money too. And I wonder how the RNC is going to pay for the national convention? Take out a loan? Hey! Maybe E Jean Carroll can lend Trump $90 million?

I thank you for the privilege of your time.