The NRA Isn’t Dead But It’s Badly Wounded

Don’t for one second kid yourself that the NRA, especially as a political force is dead. Or even dying. However it’s in the hospital and if not in the ICU (yet) in serious condition. While the NRA remains larger and still has more resources than all the other gun goober rights groups combined they have been on a streak of year after year revenue going down and expenses going up. Legal expenses keep knocking them down/backwards.

The Daily Beast has an excellent article examining not just just fifteen years of tax filings but other issues that have “befallen” (I use quotes because like most reading this my feelings are “boo f**king hoo NRA!”) the National Rifle Association:

Over the last several years, the NRA has experienced a public implosion, as the group loses members and revenue amid serious accusations of mismanagement and corruption. And according to the latest NRA tax returns obtained by The Daily Beast, the reputational and organizational damage is rolling on with seemingly no end in sight.

Citing the NRA’s most recent tax return (from Nov. 2022) the linked article describes numerous measures by which the NRA has been bleeding. Including membership, revenue and even lobbying & political donations. At the same time they’ve experienced significant increases in legal costs and deficits. The article goes on to point out that even with a decline in the NRA’s power and influence gun violence has soared. I don’t need to point out all the examples that leap to your mind on that one. The author suggests the NRA’s current troubles might be they’re victims of their own success, having “frozen” the debate with people on the for/against divide over gun control being entrenched in their views.

Having written that he still suggests things might be changing, pointing out that in 2022 fifteen GOP Senators helped pass the first meaningful gun control (for me it wasn’t enough but at least it was a start) in decades. The author doesn’t mention it but we’ve also seen some good at the state level, including in FL when after the mass murders at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School students, students said enough and organized. They, and others just like them around the country were getting to voting age and they HAVE been voting. And staying active on this and other issues.  Mass shooting aren’t going to stop anytime I can foresee, and tragically we are likely to see MAGAs grabbing their guns and killing people over political and/or legal losses for Trump next year.

Regardless, the financial numbers tell quite the story about the still formidable NRA. They’ve been bleeding copious amounts of money year after year. 2022 was the fourth year in a row of declining revenue and the NRA’s weakest fundraising year since 2008. In addition to only 83 million in membership dues which is the lowest since 2008 and a 59% drop (adjusted for inflation) since 2015 they’ve seen a decline in grants and other donations. Despite a whopping 35% growth in fundraising expenses. Plainly put they are spending a lot more to raise a lot less money.

On top of all that the NRA’s legal expenses have exploded. The author describes some of the civil litigation they’re embroiled in and these case have been going on for a while. Others have taken place in recent history. It was only the day before the NRA and Ackerman McQueen were due to begin their highly anticipated court battle that the case was settled. For those who don’t know “Ack-Mac” was the NRA’s longtime PR and Marketing firm and ran NRA TV. A lot of ugly accusations flew back and forth. This is getting longer than I’d like so I won’t delve into some personal insight I have with goings on with the NRA and Ack-Mac from several decades ago but even then there were “issues” that I thought would one day boil over given what I knew.  Anyway, the point is that in 2022 alone the NRA spent 44 Million on legal expenses, nearly 20% of it’s expenses for the year!

I again want to emphasize that the NRA is still a force to be reckoned with as lots of conservatives remain afraid to cross them. Still, they are weakened. Their political donations have been down in recent years. And that’s why this might matter in the 2024 election, especially down ballot from the Presidency.  The NRA isn’t done with legal battles and financial troubles. Not even close. A year can be a lifetime in politics and if civil litigation seems to take forever (because it freaking almost always does!) there’s a lot cooking. If the NRA takes another big legal hit, or sees the cost of preventing one turning out to be way higher than that 44 million I just cited they aren’t going to have as much cash to funnel to candidates. That in turn means even if not in the coming year, conservatives who see once widespread donations to GOP candidates by the NRA fall off even more we might see another round of gun control from the next Congress.

Seeing the NRA continue it’s implosion is satisfying in and of itself. But more important is the long-term political effect an NRA on its (hopefully) deathbed is what really matters. The linked article will take a bit of time to read. It’s full of a lot of financial stuff. Still, if you care about gun control and the epidemic of gun violence that’s taken hold in our country it’s worth your time to get up to speed on the NRA’s troubles. Gun control can and should be an issue next year and if we vote in the numbers we should with democracy itself on the line we can at the same time elect candidates who will further erode the influence of the NRA.