Four days to go. Man, talk about the ultimate home stretch, huh? Tell the truth. Back on January 21st, 2021, while we celebrated President Joe Biden’s inauguration, and flipped double barrel birds at Traitor Tot as he boarded Marine 1 for the last time, could you honestly believe that the midterm elections would get here so soon? And, Oh Brudda, what a ride the last two years have been, huh?
The midterm battle lines have been drawn for months now, and have hardened the closer to election day we’ve gotten. The GOP is running on Inflation, the economy, and crime. And the Democrats have locked in on Abortion rights, threats to democracy, and the loss of rights to the Supreme Court. And as far as I can see, that’s how they’ll close, with Biden hammering the MAGA threat to democracy while the Democrats hammer the other points.
And on the face of it, the winds appear to be blowing in the GOP’s direction. In almost every poll, the economy and inflation are a 1-2 punch, followed by abortion and threats to democracy. And there are a whole lot of soft lower class and lower middle class Democrats, as well as lower and lower middle class independents and soft Republicans that might well be tempted to give the GOP the keys to the car, desperate for relief. Not good news for the Democrats 4 days out.
As I was watching the news today on MSNBC, on a non political economic segment, I suddenly had an epiphany. Sure, lower class and lower middle class voters may be desperate to vote for GOP candidates with no practical plans to fix inflation, and that’s bad for Democrats. But that’s just them. We all know that it is the middle and upper middle class, mostly white voters, especially women who will determine the outcome of the 2020 midterms.
And that’s when I had my epiphany. In the middle of the report I realized that Not. All. Economies. Are. Created. Equal. Lower class and lower middle class voters may vote strictly for immediate economic relief, but that’s not necessarily true for middle class and upper middle class suburban voters. You want proof? How about this? Inflation is at about 8.7%, and yet airlines are posting near record bookings going into the holidays! People who have money, and a cushion, are still willing to spend it. And who most likely happens to have that kind of coin? Mostly white suburban middle class and upper middle class voters. And they’re showing it.
Which makes them less susceptible to the GOP’s swan song. After all, nobody likes inflation and higher prices, but most middle class and upper middle class families banked the stimulus checks Biden sent out as protection for a possible long haul. And if they were unemployed, the extra first $600 a week, followed by $300 a week were pennies from heaven. They don’t like inflation, but they can deal with it. And while racist assholes like Stephen Miller and his Super PAC may put up hysterical ads about the horrendous invasion of brown and black criminals invading your neighborhood, most middle class and upper middle class voters don’t see any sign of such an invasion. Violent crime is an urban problem.
Which puts them in the Democrats wheelhouse. White suburban women and men likely already have families. And being prudent, especially in times like this, they want a way to control the size of those families. And lots of them have daughters, who are subject to tragedies like rape and a careless moment of passion. They can deal with inflation, but not necessarily the end result of an accidental, unwanted pregnancy. Those personal considerations could well override their pique about inflation.
And the same thing goes for the Democrats second closing argument, Threats to democracy. I’ll be 66 in February, and everything I have is due to the wonder of democracy. I’m legally blind, and thanks to democracy, and a Democratic majority, my beloved wife doesn’t have to have 2 jobs just for us to survive. How many middle and upper middle class suburbanites used federal student loans to get the education that got them where they are. It turns out that And they have the cushion to vote their consciences.
This is what I’m going to be watching on Tuesday night. Trump went out of his way in the primaries to purge all of the moderate GOP incumbents in suburban districts, and replace them with loyal slaves. But those incumbents were there for a reason, because GOP voters liked them! And the white suburban voters have the wherewithal to look beyond the economy and inflation, to what truly matters. Don’t touch that dial.