Before I get to the main event, I just want to provide a quick update. A day or so ago I posted an article about how former New York Mayor and Democratic Presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg had cut a check for $15 million to pay the illegal and unconstitutional poll tax imposed on former Florida convicts in return for their right to vote.
Chris Hayes had former Florida felon and reformed activist Desmond Meade, as well as singer John Legend, who backed Meade in the 2018 ballot initiative to restore voting rights to former non violent convicts. Hayes pointed out that in 2016, Donald Trump won Florida by 104,000 votes, or 1.04% of the vote. When you combine Bloomberg’s $15 million with more than $5 million that had poured in from other sources, there is the potential that by October 5th, the closing date for the cycle, there could be 774, 000 newly franchised former felon voters ready to go to the polls in Florida. Their choice? The party that gifted them their vote back, or the party that tried to strip that right with an unconstitutional poll tax.
And now on to the main event.
Q: What two things do the following cities have in common? Atlanta, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit. Milwaukee, Denver, Phoenix, Houston, and Dallas?
A: They are all cities in competitive 2020 presidential and Senate states, and they all have NBA teams where the owners of those teams have already agreed to open their arenas as polling places for election day, including in most cases providing qualified poll workers.
I wrote about this previously, but recent events have brought a fresh urgency to the issue. because, due to traditional voting patterns, along with the pressures of the coronavirus, have made this factor something more than what it would have been otherwise.
I’ll explain. The Democrats’ reliance on following the science in this election has led to an expected large surge of early, mail in voting by Democrats, while Trump’s bashing of mail- in voting is expected to bring about a large election day voter turnout. Trump’s strategy is to seize on high election day numbers showing him in the lead, and, defying local state laws on the validity of mail in ballots, insist that all ballots that cannot be counted on election night as illegitimate. Therefore, the Democratic election scam with massive mail in voting fraud.
Now sadly, here I must intrude with a detailed explanation. There are three types of ballots for most election, mail-in ballots, early absentee in person ballots, and election day ballots. In most states, mail-in ballots cannot even be processed until election day, which is a taxing process, the ballot must be validated, then opened and set up for counting. In some states, the ballots can be processed as they arrive, but cannot be counted until election day. Either way, mail in ballots are not counted until after the election day ballots have all been counted. In person early voting ballots are taken to the election headquarters, and counted on election night when the election day ballots are counted.
This could be critical. Because Trump is counting on a sluggish election day turnout from Democrats who voted early and safely by mail, allowing a massive GOP election day turnout to give him the illusion of winning the election, and then pivot to claim that all ballots counted after election night are invalid.
This could be the game changer. I wrote in my previous article that for various reasons, most indoor sports arenas are located in or near the city center, much closer to the inner city than the suburbs. Opening these arenas is a godsend for lower income minorities to show up to vote in conditions that are much more friendly than being packed into a high school gym to cast your ballot. Many of the teams have pledged not only to open the doors, but to have poll workers ready and on site, and some athletes such as superstar LeBron James are mounting their own pledge to provide election staff. And major companies are starting to answer the call. Old Navy became the first major retailer to offer their employees election day off in return for them volunteering to work as poll workers for the day. The ultimate dream would be for these owners to be able open the doors for any early voting days, as well as election day.
Remember, Trump’s gambit requires him to have a substantial lead in key battleground states that allow him to claim that votes counted after election day are invalid. A close tally in those states make it harder for him to challenge the validity of votes that are counted after election day, but within accordance with established state election laws. Having a race within the margin of error in a battleground state actually promotes the counting of state valid mail in votes as an ultimate arbiter of the election, rather than sinking into the morass of endless federal litigation.
And there is one more factor to consider. A recent poll shows that there has been a softening in voter enthusiasm among some Trump supporters. In looking at the cross tabs, the Trump voters seemed to be saying that, since Trump was already saying that the election was rigged, it didn’t really matter if they cast their ballots or not. Throw in that while Trump may be bleeding senior votes right now, they are still a staple of votes for the GOP in general, which could be critical in close Senate races. And Trump decrying the validity of mail in ballots, which many of them use, could move them to just sit the whole damn thing out instead.
So yes, Trump’s brand new threat to democracy, by attempting to overthrow the results of a free and fair election is alarming, and I’ll have more to say about that tomorrow. But there is already a circumstance in place that could throw a monkey wrench in his plans by not allowing him the election night advantage that he needs in order to put the rest of his naked power play in motion, and now you know what it is.
My guess, Murf, is that Trump is doing the throwing out of election results gambit because it’s looking obvious that the voters who show up on Election Day are going to outnumber his supporters anyway. Like you noted, the latter’s enthusiasm is flagging, as Virginia proved this last week. And as I keep noting, this crew could eff up a one-car funeral, never mind a coordinated scheme like this. So this will likely fail too.
The problem with this analysis is that Trump is fundamentally WRONG about ANY post-Election Day counts. Some states REQUIRE recounts when election results are within a certain (generally less than 1) percentage point and these recounts CANNOT legally take place until after Election Day. In such cases, it’s going to be incredibly rare that the ORIGINAL count would be completed by midnight of Election Day so the recount process this year, by definition, can’t begin till 12:01am November 4th. (Also, if I’m not mistaken, states that do require recounts in such close contests usually wait until ALL ballots from ALL precincts have been accounted for; usually, races are “called” when there may still be 5% of precincts still out but the margin of difference is significant but the lower the margin of difference between the top candidates, the more precincts have to be accounted for.)
Back in 2000, the whole Florida mess was still going on for WEEKS after Election Day and the issue was only stopped when the Supreme Court (wrongly intervening) decided that the ballots had to be finalized before the Electors would meet on December 12 of that year.
TL;DR: neither Trump nor his remaining henchmen know what the eff they’re doing or talking about…as usual.
“Badges? I don’t need no stinkin badges!”, Mexican bandit in Treasure of the Sierra Madre. Ask the Australians how the import of cane toads went. An insatiable giant that had no natural predators due to poison execreted every time it is threatened. Two sides for thought…frump never factors in unintended consequences, or consequences period; he is one big ass cane toad & we better do something quick or the following will happen. He will pull off a coup. His ‘militia’ of armed half wits will be raising hell on the streets like cowboys in dodge city on Saturday night; he will jail his perceived enemies; he will jail journalists; He will do as his boss & nationalize industries run by his cronies; he will set up one of his evil progeny to inherit,via a Belarus type election. Planet will take us out in less time than America has existed, due to his policies of science denial. VOTE as if your ass is on the line. Cuz it is.
That would make a good movie but it won’t happen in real life. All of that would require a staggering degree of continence neither he nor anyone on his team possesses. And telling people that this COULD happen is a great way to depress the vote.
No, it should not depress the vote. It should energize it in order to ensure that Biden wins by a margin far too great for Trump to challenge.
A. Trump’s talk about mail-in ballots has been shown to also be discouraging Democrats from doing so. I have been deluged with emails and posts by Democratic groups telling me not to vote by mail.
B. So the breakdown is not going to be that neatly split in any case.
C. Not only Trump but no federal agency has the power to decide how and when states count ballots.
D. There is no such thing as an “early absentee in person ballots.” You cannot be absentee and in person. In person early voting is not absentee. Can you correct the?
Are you sure these requests are legitimate? Could they be coming from say, Russian groups?
Having gotten slammed by such entreaties myself, I can testify that all the ones I got were legit. I was a little skeptical when Victory 2020 hooked me up to do some GOTV texting. But then a little Internet research and I traced it straight back to Joe Biden’s campaign.
I think Dem group were not advising not to vote. They were recommending we bypass the mail drop our absentee ballots off at the election office or in one of the ballot boxes. This is what is meant by “early absentee in-person ballots.” The recommendation may have been rendered largely unnecessary by DeJoy’s loss in recent Federal Court. The court ordered the USPS to treat ballots as first class and priority mail, to guarantee timely delivery by paying overtime, and running mail trucks until all the mail is delivered.