I recently wrote about how I was proud of CA congresswoman Katie Porter, and the whole Democratic party. And with good reason. The Democrats are at a pivotal inflection point as a party, the changing of the guard so to speak. and they’re performing the transition flawlessly. Meanwhile the GOP, already 10 years past their stale date as a party, are stumbling around blindly, spinning into an ever shrinking base.
The reason I wrote is this. Right now, 89 year old Democratic Senator and Smithsonian Natural History exhibit Diane Feinstein is playing coy as to whether or not she’ll seek her 47th term in the Senate. The normal protocol in deference to seniority is to wait for the incumbent to retire, and then announce your candidacy. After all, Pelosi, Hoyer, and even Clyburn have gotten the memo in the House, and stepped out of the limelight. Porter came out a couple of days ago and announced her candidacy, making it clear to Feinstein that if she runs again, she’ll have a tussle on her hands. And good for her, and also for the Democratic restructuring.
But there is a hypothesis known as Too much of a good thing. A couple of days ago it was reported that CA Representative Barbara Lee has told friends that she is seriously considering running for the Senate spot. And it has also been reported that CA congressman Adam Schiff is seriously considering throwing his hat in the ring as well. And this should be sending off loud warning bells, not only in the CA Democratic party, but the national party as well.
Because California isn’t like everyplace else. Because they employ a little quirk that is becoming more and more popular nationwide, including here in Nevada called a jungle primary. In short the parties aren’t separated. If there are 14 names on the ballot, they all appear on the same list, and voters vote. And the top two go on to the general election ballot, regardless of party. Which is why it’s not unusual to see two Democrats vying for the same seat in the general election in strong Democratic districts.
But it carries risks. In 2003, there was a recall petition that passed against uber unpopular Democratic Governor Gray Davis. In a recall election there is no primary! People file their petitions and run on both sides. And a whole slew of Democrats signed up to replace Davis, while the GOP largely left the field open for action star Arnold Schwarzenegger. And you guessed it, the Democrats split their vote endlessly, and California ended up with The Governator.
And that is the same issue the Democrats are staring in the face in California in 2024. On two fronts. First, If you have Lee, Porter, Schiff, and even Eric Swalwell is thinking about taking his chances, that’s four Democratic seats that are about to be opened up. From what I can see, the most vulnerable seat would be Porters, she won in the 2018 tsunami and helped to flip Orange County blue. Whether any of these candidates win or lose, the Democrats are going to have to come up with four more quality candidates to replace them on the congressional primary ballot. And even under optimal conditions, only two can go on to the general election, which means that two are out in the cold.
But that doesn’t worry me as much as the other option. In addition to Porter, Lee, Schiff, and possibly Swalwell, it is rumored that there may be another 3-6 fringe Democratic candidates who may join the fray. And that specter scares me shitless.
Because the GOP is nothing if not sneaky, devious, and linear. And if they have their shit together, and the discipline to pull it off, they can replicate the Schwarzenegger model. They can promote the two best known, most acceptable candidates, and basically clear the field for them. And if the California Democratic majority splits its vote badly enough, two weeks after primary day you could easily find two GOP candidates on the ballot for US Senate in California.
Look, I’m all in on the Democratic transition to the future of the party. And Feinstein has already long surpassed her shelf life in the Senate. That being said, the Democrats in California still need to be intelligent about how they engineer the changeover, lest they be left with a GOP Senatenator being sworn in. Just a word to the wise.
Since she announced I’ve had the same worry. Schiff being booted from the Intel Committee by McCarthy gives him a bonus – pleasing his crazies AND giving Schiff a reason to look to move up to the Senate. And make no mistake, Schiff would be an outstanding Senator. Mark Warner is no spring chicken and Schiff could slide into that role on the Senate Intelligence Committee. Still, I also look at Liz Warren who has earned some retirement time and Katie Porter could wind up being more effective than Warner on consumer protection issues, and witness appearing before her on any other committee would be in mortal terror at what she could do to them with TEN minutes of time each round of questioning instead of only five! I think the CA Party is going to have to organize a sit-down in the near future and start sorting this out so we don’t have exactly the situation you correctly outline and correctly fear. It will surely result in bruised egos but better to get it out of the way now than later this year heading into a primary year.
“But it carries risks. In 2003, there was a recall petition that passed against uber unpopular Democratic Governor Gray Davis. In a recall election there is no primary! People file their petitions and run on both sides. And a whole slew of Democrats signed up to replace Davis, while the GOP largely left the field open for action star Arnold Schwarzenegger. And you guessed it, the Democrats split their vote endlessly, and California ended up with The Governator.”
That’s NOT quite how the Wiki article covers the matter.
There may have been a “slew of Democrats” who signed up, the GOP did NOT “largely” leave the field to Schwarzenegger. There were a sizable number of declared GOP candidates and the person who got the third highest number of votes was another GOPer: Tom McClintock.
Of the 135 declared candidates on the ballot, there were a total of 49 Democrats, 42 GOPers and 44 independents and third-party candidates. The top 5 candidates featured 2 GOPers (Schwarzenegger and McClintock), 1 Democrat (Cruz Bustamante), 1 Green Party (Peter Camejo) and 1 independent (Ariana Huffington–who withdrew from the race but her name remained on the ballot nonetheless). The combined 49 Democrats received only 2,830,748 votes (with Bustamante accounting for 96% on his own) while the combined 44 GOPers received 5,435,505 votes (with Schwarzenegger accounting for 77% and McClintock accounting for 21% of the total GOPer vote).
See, I have absolute faith that the GOP side of the field will be just as crowded as the 2016 GOP Presidential field but far less likely to have anyone able to rally the GOP behind their “one and only.” Well, not without cheating, of course, but that might be a touch more difficult in a state that leans so heavily to the Democrats. (Remember that Schwarzenegger had something lacking in most of the other GOPers we’ve seen of late: CHARISMA. And, Arnold hasn’t been all that supportive of the current batch of GOPers on a national or statewide level. It would be interesting to find that alternate universe where Arnold didn’t get involved in politics and never became the Governor but continued acting.)
I’d vote for any of them – Porter, Lee, Schiff or Swalwell, but I’d have a very hard time choosing between them! I agree, as much as I appreciate her, Feinstein needs to go (and should have retired at least two cycles ago.
Two words: TERM LIMITS! Feinstein is WAY past her “Best By” date!
When the process is open and fair we do have term limits – they’re called elections. (I recall a quote to that effect from The West Wing) I also believe there’s a benefit to having people serve for longer than normal as it provides a wealth of knowledge they can pass along. Yet some stay on too long, even after it’s obvious they no longer are the public servants they once were, or even useful in any way. It’s got to be tough for colleagues, many of whom were mentored by these people or even if not still respect the reputation they once had. Sadly, like others in other professions (business, sports, entertainment) when things get to that point where trusted colleagues say it’s time to step aside some people won’t take hints, and even get their back up at overt suggestions their time is up and they should step aside. Even spouses, children and other family telling them “it’s time” won’t move them, and often makes them dig in. The sad fact is that not only is it rare for a pro athlete with good years left to retire because they realize that while still very, even very good they’re no longer great, far more common are the ones that hang on and become pitied. And find their careers are remembered as much so, if not more so for their refusal to step away before they became pathetic.
But even when spouses and family are urging retirement, there is often another group that is telling these people to hang on. An entourage, whether it’s a “posse” for an entertainer or athlete or their agent who sees one last big commission from one last big contract, or in the case of politicians their office staff. The really high level ones can always find similar work or even something related in some think tank that pays far more. But they won’t be that “key person(s)” that’s right there in the middle of the action and being in the action is addictive to them is just as addictive as it is to the top person! So they cover for them, and privately encourage them by telling them how vital they are, and that despite what might be being said in the news the “word” is that they are still highly respected. And they tell their boss that everything is running smoothly in the office. That all is not only well, but going great.
That’s how you wind up with a Feinstein or a Byrd on our side, and a Grassley or a Thurmond on the other side.
Hey Murf, Always good stuff, but let someone proofread for you. 47th term? The woman is 89 years old, but has already been in the senate 274 years? 46×6=276-2 to go=274. Love your work, but these errors are worrying.
The Grope Other People party is scared of Ms. Porter. She deals in facts and doesn’t cower before their horseshit.