“The Cheney Factor”

Look, I’m not going to jump any sharks and make a prediction, because votes haven’t even started to come in yet from Wyoming, but all recent polling and indications are that Liz Cheney is going to lose her seat in the House of Representatives tonight.

Which of course means that Traitor Tot is going to do a mondo victory dance over the results. And believe me, a 76 year old man with a dead muskrat on his head trying to do a Travolta boogie is not a thought I want in my head.

But maybe Trump should have been more careful about what he wished for. Because, as far as his own political interests are concerned, by far and away the best place for him to have Liz Cheney would be locked up in congress.

Because a Liz Cheney out of congress means a Liz Cheney unchained. And from everything that Cheney has done in the last year, more and more outlets are projecting that she is readying herself for a direct confrontation with Traitor Tot in the 2024 GOP primaries. And that has intoxicating possibilities.

Because the Cheney family is the scion of the traditional Republican party. Her father is legendary in the traditional GOP. She has immediate access to all of the traditional GOP sources of funding and advertising. And no longer being in congress, Cheney is free to fundraise and announce any time she likes. Which is critical for two reasons.

First of all, Trump has lost his magic charm. In 2020 Trump was the incumbent. So the RNC and the state parties could simply refuse to put out a presidential ballot and make Trump the presumptive king. But in 2024, Trump is no longer the incumbent. The presidential spot is now an open seat. The RNC and the states are going to have no choice but to hold open primary elections for that spot. Trump is going to have to go through another primary season.

And this time weakened. Trump isn’t new and fresh and unknown anymore, people have 4 years of his presidency to judge him by, along with all of his other activities post 2020 election. Which only plays into Cheney;s, as well as the establishment GOP’s hand.

Because the rest of the 2024 field is going to be nothing but Trombie acolytes who sniff blood in the water. Idjits like Ron Pissantis, Cancun Teddy Cruz, Lickpenny Mike Pence, Josh Hawley, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and Mount Rushmore Kristi Noem.

And that plays right into Cheney’s hand. With the traditional GOP united behind her, she’ll have no difficulty making the debate stage. And what will she find there? A Golden Corral buffet of Trombie acolytes, all trying to out Trump Trump. And Liz Cheney can spend 2 hours every debate ripping them all to shreds, individually as well as collectively,

Can Liz Cheney actually win the GOP nomination in 2024? In a single word, no. The traditional, moderate GOP is still in the minority of the party, especially in the primaries. Early drop outs would only strengthen the remaining Trombies, until it’s down to one against Cheney. And if Cheney did actually win, she would be handing Joe Biden a glide path, since the Trump base would never vote for her.

But what Liz Cheney can do is to savage the Trombie field that whichever candidate finally rises to the top, he or she is unacceptable to the base of the other fallen comrades.

This is, of course, pure speculation. But current information tends to lead to a Cheney primary challenge in 2024. And with Cheney’s deep pockets and mainstream connections, she can turn the 2024 GOP primaries on its ear. Just stick a pin in this one.