Sununu’s Backing Of Haley Is His 2028 WH Campaign Kickoff

I woke up early this morning and watching the news see the clips of voters in New Hampshire at the polls. It’s primary day and the action is all on the GOP side. Polling in the Granite State is tricky but it looks like where less than two weeks ago Haley had a shot at beating Trump he’s going to wind up winning handily. Haley might well get beaten by double digits and while she remains popular in her home state, it’s a given Trump will wipe the floor with her in South Carolina. (the next contest which will be a month from now) Despite this, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has been “all in” for Haley.

Why? Ok, so given his long ago endorsement of Haley and risking his own popularity at home in the process Sununu couldn’t exactly walk away in the past week. What he could have done was toned down his support some.  More importantly he could have avoided taking shots at Trump. However, he’s doubled-down on Haley as this article from Real Clear Politics indicates, and has even directly gone after Trump. Not like the other Chris as in Chris Christie but still, Trump never forgets a slight and there will come a time when Trump decides to visit some payback on Sununu. Even though the latter says if Trump’s the nominee he’ll vote for him. (as with others I say WTF? but that’s a different and longer topic for discussion)

I think it’s clear Sununu deciding not just to ride, but drive the Nikki Haley Bandwagon in his state was a way of giving himself a higher national profile. Because he’s already running for President in 2028.

Even for those who aren’t political junkies if they pay at least some regular attention to the news then New Hampshire, due to its “first in the nation” status in President primaries (as you know Iowa is caucuses, a very different animal) gets talked about. In recent decades a run for the WH is a four year deal. Or was. Now, it’s even worse. If you think about it when journalists speculated on THIS year they were also talking about 2028! Who would sit out this year, or who would mount a campaign to position themselves for 2028. And yes, whenever politicians would show up in either Iowa or New Hampshire the speculation about whether they were running, or contemplating a run ensued.

After Jan. 6 the possibility of Trump facing criminal charges made a lot of Republicans take a hard look at this year.  Even if not convicted he’d be badly wounded and vulnerable. He’d still have MAGA but some of them would have (and polling suggests that’s still the case) be discouraged into not voting or picking whomever they thought was the “Trumpiest” of challengers. No one needed all, or even a majority of MAGAs. Ten or fifteen percent would be enough to convince hard-core conservative Republicans to dump Trump and bring in independents who leaned GOP. That would be enough to mount a viable run.

2022 was the watershed year. The time when those who’d been quietly organizing, or those who had the resources (or access to them) to gear up quickly would have to get serious. When AG Garland, who clearly didn’t want to have to prosecute politicians had no choice but to appoint a Special Prosecutor many GOP Presidential wannabes pulled the trigger. I don’t want to turn this into one of my infamous “forever to read with too much detail” pieces so I won’t delve into all that and most people’s thinking on why they did or did not get into the race.

This is about Chris Sununu. What he thought of his own chances.  So let’s deal with some basic stuff. The thing is, New Hampshire is a small and homogenous state tucked up in the far northeast. It’s not the kind of place an actual New Hampshire politico with Presidential ambitions can use as a launching pad. Out of state types get more attention! The state simple isn’t large enough in either size or population, or in economic clout that it’s high elected officials get noticed.  Pop quiz: Name the states Senators. (Jeanne Shaheen & Maggie Hassan) Ok, maybe you remembered one or both. How about the Representatives over in the House? (Chris Pappas and Anne McClane Kuster) How many Americans do you think could name all four without looking it up? (Yes, I had to look up the Representatives) How many could name both the Senators? Or even one?

You see my point? New Hampshire isn’t the kind of state that offers much of a chance for a politician to gain a trait that’s critical to mounting a credible Presidential campaign – name recognition! Now, if you pay attention to politics you might at least be familiar with the name Sununu. Not in a good way either as the father of the current Gov. gained some infamy while serving as Bush 41’s Chief of Staff.  Chris Sununu was at one point mentioned as a possible Trump challenger this cycle. He’s popular at home and while quite conservative there’s a Libertarian element to him (something that plays well in NH) that would appeal to a lot of Republicans but also Independents in a general election. (Hold onto that thought) However, the current GOP is Donald Trump’s Party and MAGA rules. Even in Presidential politics it’s the most fervent voters on either side that tend to dominate the turnout and MAGAs proved in Iowa they WILL show up for their Trump.

Chris Sununu is a smart guy. Literally. He’s got a degree in civil & environmental engineering from freaking MIT. Add in growing up in a family that’s huge in New Hampshire politics and you have someone with a lifetime of political savvy too. In the first part of the Biden administration like everyone he knew Trump would try to get back in the WH. What he and others weren’t sure of was whether Trump fatigue might set in to some degree in MAGA world, and whether Trump himself still had the power to ruin people.  AG Garland had DOJ prosecuting J6 rioters right and left but seemed to have little appetite for going after the ring-leaders, at least the political ones. So Sununu ran for a fourth term as Gov. in 2022.

Wise move. Others who had “exploratory committees” made a different choice. Now, with the exception of Haley they are toast. Haley almost certainly will be soon. Perhaps as early as late this evening if she can’t come within single digits of Trump. If she stays close enough to carry on through the next month she’ll likely lose to Trump in her home state of South Carolina. Still, a month can be a long time in politics and who knows? Trump might completely break down on stage and be curled up in the fetal position babbling gibberish. He might finally have his lifestyle catch up to him and drop dead. You never know. Also, while Trump will have his rallies Haley will be on home turf in South Carolina which isn’t small, but small enough she can make the rounds and provide a much more personal connection with voters there. Even though Trump will win it’s possible she can hang close enough to make him appear less than inevitable.

However, it’s likely Trump’s going to be the nominee.  He’ll go down in flames in November if WE do our part and get every last voter we can find to cast their vote. And take the GOP down with him. The question will quickly turn to who can pick up the pieces?  It will take someone who can appeal to the pre-Trump GOP and who they believe can start to attract enough Independents back their way. AND who won’t have pissed off the MAGAs so much that the lion’s share of them won’t fall in line.

That’s the fence Chris Sununu is trying to walk on the edge of.  He’d announced some time back he wouldn’t run for a fifth term. He’ll have lots of time to suck up to MAGAs, especially if he makes additional statements about voting for Trump. Haley will be the one who might have burned the bridge to MAGA instead of him. Best of all, he’s been getting national exposure, that name recognition I mentioned earlier. That’s a priceless commodity in Presidential politics. In the meantime Sununu can write a book, organize some GOP friendly environmental initiative (if you read the Wikipedia entry I linked to you’ll see he’s already geared up for that type of thing) to keep his name out there.

Will he choose to instead either retire from politics and concentrate on getting rich(er)? Will he run for a seat in Congress or for Senator? Or will he quietly paddle his canoe down the river to the lake where all the Presidential candidates wind up. I say it’s going to be that last option. Time will tell.