Man, that didn’t take long. Yesterday, Ohio GOP Senator Rob Portman announced that he would not run for reelection in 2022. While Portman blamed it on the incredibly polarized political atmosphere, which makes it impossible to govern, which is what he went to Washington to do, the implication was clear. Portman can’t tolerate the Trump stench of his party anymore.
One full week into the Biden presidency, and already 2022 is getting interesting. Because Portman is actually already the second GOP Senator to announce his retirement. Last year, senior GOP Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina announced his intention to retire, one quick step ahead of an ethics, and possible criminal probe. And it’s only going to get worse from here on out for the GOP.
One of the ways we got an early indication of the Blue Tsunami of 2018 was the incredibly high, especially in the GOP House, number of retirement announcements. Let’s face it, you don’t give up a high paying, basically glorified part time job with wicked kewl bennies if you don’t have to. These incumbents saw which way the wind was blowing, and they voted with their feet.
It looks like it’s about to happen again. The seats that the Democrats lost to the Republicans in 2020 were not won by Trump bomb throwers, they were won by traditional moderates that largely matched their districts. Well, in 2022, they all figure to have primaries from far right Trombies, making it more likely that they will flip back blue again in 2022. Personally, I find it hard to believe that only the moderate GOP incumbents that received death threats being the only ones to skedaddle for the hills.
Now, House incumbents are one thing, but Senate incumbents are a whole ‘nother breed of cat. Because they have two things that most House incumbents ack. Statewide name recognition, and a national corporate donor base already in place. When a Senate seat is empty in a cycle, it has the effect of leveling the playing field, since both sides are starting from scratch.
This is going to be really important in 2022 for a couple of reasons. First of all, the GOP is embroiled in a civil war, and even without Twitter, Trump will find a way to stick his big, fat, New York nose into it. Primaries will be rampant, and it is highly likely that the slates will be heavy with far right loonies, which may not play well with their actual constituents, especially white suburban women who turned the tide in 2018.
Second, I find it highly likely that money will play a huge art in the 2022 cycle, and for the first time in quite a while, the GOP will be sucking hind teat. In the last two cycles, Democratic challengers, both House as well as Senate, have foregone big money donors, and funds raised exclusively from the grassroots. And even in doing so, managed to far out raise their entrenched GOP incumbent opponents. Bernie Sanders ran an entire presidential campaign on mostly $30 donations. The Democrats so loved this that they made grassroots fund raising a requirement to make the debate stage in the 2020 primaries.
The GOP figures to have a potential money crunch in 2022. The Lincoln Project has already placed major US corporations that they will hold them personally responsible, and link their brands to the Capitol insurrection if they dare to fund the GOP, especially Trump supporters. As a result, dozens of major US corporations have already announced they are suspending political contributions, most to the GOP, but some to both parties.
Here’s the 411. The Democratic party has already proven that they can successfully run and win campaigns based on small dollar grassroots donations. The GOP can’t, it’s not in their DNA. First time campaigns, especially statewide Senate campaigns require a shit load of support, in staffing, campaign offices, and most importantly, funding for advertising. The Democrats can do all of that, the GOP, not so much. Which makes every retirement from now until 2020 more important, because it means stretching already thin GOP resources even further.
So, just keep one eye on the news from here on out, looking for the number of GOP incumbents who decide to announce their retirements. Because people don’t walk away from a high paying job if they think they can be reelected to keep on doing it. North Carolina is only going to get younger, and more diverse between now and 2022, and Ohio already has an uber popular Democratic Senator. And if the GOP wants to retain those seats, then they’re going to have to pay for them, and that may be hard to do.
If you enjoyed this article, you might also like to check out President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange . They comprise a pretty much daily report from the front of the 2016 GOP primaries, as well as the general election
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
Ever since January 6th, it’s like a clock has started ticking down…and not the Q-Nuts thought was put in motion. The GOP now realizes they have X amount of days to figure out how to survive before the new political era washes them away. And Trump is hell-bent on revenge, which makes it harder. GOOD.
Sheldon is gone, there is only one Koch brother left. The Mercers are going to have to answer for Parler. trump and my pillow will be off twitter so they will not be able to raise as much money. I think that trump may also have turned off his small time nazi donors. Joe mentum needs to keep things going and another senate seat or two will fall.
That’s such a good nickname for Uncle Joe, it makes me wish that backstabber Joe Lieberman hadn’t used it first. But enough years have passed, maybe we should tag it to our first president in four years?
Well hopefully the R’s have a nice civil war. They like it so much, they want to repeat it amongth themselves. Please proceed. Have fun. Now, the Dems need a 50 state strategy. Why? Pressure. And never know when the only sane choice is a Dem. Texas has been disappointing. But the state is so huge and folks did not have time to meet their nominees. Disgust and hate work only so much. Need candidates running next week. LOL. Hopefully Joe and Kamala visit the border and GOTV. The blue counties and young ones are the hope. I miss the up buttons. But oh well. I hope the Mercers really get questioned. Cambridge Analytica was just an indictment that never happened. IMHO
Like you I have some optimism but mine is a bit more measured. I guess I’m not certain the GOP internecine war will play out the way we hope with voters, at least in quite a few states. There was a time not that long ago when cray statements could and did cost a GOP candidate an election they probably should have won. Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin in Missouri for example shooting off his mouth allowed Claire McCaskill to squeak by. If not for Jack Danforth doubling down on slapping around Josh Hawley I doubt he’d have any trouble getting re-elected in MO. The Senate might indeed be a different animal in elections but the crazies that were already entrenched in House seats (thanks to gerrymandering which the GOP will still have an advantage with for another ten years) have been joined by even crazier types – Greene and Boebert for example. Like you I have the hope that those suburban GOP women who swung our way in 2018 but ran back to the GOP for down ballot races last fall will swing our way again. I’m just not sure enough of them will. It’s not a huge fear, but I still have a significant one that just as President Biden says when it comes to Covid on this business of GOP candidates that pop up from somewhere between here and the forth dimension (and getting elected) things might get worse before they get better.
There’s a reason why I’m optimistic with Jaime Harrison at the DNC helm on that 50 state strategy happening. And don’t give up hope on the Mercers just yet.
It should be fun to watch – the remnants of the GOP battling with the MGAAts – even more fun should the Trompador set up his own party (free cold big Macs to the first to pay the ‘membership fee’) and then watch a three way fight with the GOP and the MAGAts fighting each other for a share of the vote (and then listen to the rediminations after when both sides accuse the other of ‘fraud’. In the meantime the Dem candidate can just sit on the sidelines enjoying the spectacle
Right now, the talk in Ohio is chaotic and virtually every elected official says they are “looking at” the senate race, including a long list of GOP congressional nonentities none of you have ever heard or and whose names are familiar to 75% of their own districts. Dave “Who?” Joyce? Warren “Who?” Davison? Mike “Who?” Turner? Believe me, people in Ohio don’t even know who they are.
There’s a lot of stupid talk on the Democratic side too, revealing once again how gullible and easily infatuated WE are. The one name I see the annoys me most is Dr. Amy Acton, former head of the Ohio Department of Health who joined governor Mike DeWine during the early days of the pandemic to give health updates. She was profession and awkward and not particularly prepossessing, but people latched onto her reality-based updates because they were starved for them, with the legislature getting increasingly crazy. Dr. Acton resigned after getting copious death threats and armed protestors showed up at her home. This made her a hero to some people. But she’s not political, we don’t know any of her positions on any issues, and she’s very flat and awkward in public. Anointing her because we’re upset about the pandemic is one of the stupidest things I’ve seen Democrats embrace since the “Joe Kennedy III for president” craze.
On the other hand, while I am a sports-hater and sports-ignorant, I think the suggestion of LeBron James as a candidate is not farfetched. Go to WikiPedia and read the enormous section on HIS political and community activism.
Ursula you rock, honey! PZ back up good as gold on Firefox. Now I’m going back to catch up on reading!
Nice Piece, Murf. Although we did hear a lot about Burr giving it up long before now, ’18-’19 or so. I guess he just waited to make it official.
Checking to see if I can still post here…