As the primaries finally grind to a close, and we at last get to the general election season, you’re going to be assaulted with more and more polling numbers, in different categories. The key to finding sense in all of the sometimes conflicting numbers is to look for context.
Here’s a perfect example. Recently I wrote in an article that back in March, the Democrats suffered from a -19 rating in the enthusiasm gap, the number of voters on each side that were Highly Motivated to show up in November to vote. In May, they had chopped that deficit to -10. And in mid August, they had trimmed that deficit to -2, 66-68.
But following the latest primaries on Tuesday, in uber battleground Florida, as well as New York, in dissecting the numbers, MSNBC’s election savant, Steve Kornacki reported that in both states, Democrats had voted in higher numbers than Republicans. I believe he said in passing that the same thing had happened in the Arizona primary as well.
How is this possible? If the Democrats are still trailing the GOP by 2 points in voter enthusiasm, how can they be showing up in higher numbers than the GOP, especially in a state like Florida, where registered GOP voters outnumber registered Democratic voters? There’s something wrong here.
Except there isn’t. As Sherlock Holmes loved to say, Elementary, my dear Watson. There’s actually no discrepancy, it’s simple math. National numbers show that the GOP is now the 3rd largest party in the US, behind Independents and Democrats. And every time Traitor Tot makes a horses ass of himself, more mainstream GOP voters either drop out, or switch to either Democratic or Independent.
There’s the sweet spot in the numbers. Even if the GOP has a 2 point lead in voter enthusiasm, if there’s 5% fewer registered Republicans than Democrats, then the Democrats actually hold a 1 point lead in voter enthusiasm. And if independent voters are breaking for the Democrats, the GOP is even worse off.
There’s my tip for you going into the general election season, and the November midterms. When you look at voter enthusiasm polls, just remember that the GOP is the smallest major party in the US. If the GOP is +2 in voter enthusiasm, then the Democrats are likely even or slightly ahead, because there are more of them. And if the Democrats actually edge ahead in voter enthusiasm, then the GOP is in the hurt locker. The more you know.
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It’s the democrats election to fuck up. Let’s see how they do it. I would like to be pleasantly surprised the morning after election day but I also know the dems record in such things.
**Blink** Did you…miss the part where Murf said “not your father’s Democratic party”? Or is it just that you’re so addicted to losing that you no longer know how to win?
Another aspect the data may have missed is new voter registration. I saw a piece that said women are registering to vote like never before. Obviously this Dobbs decision is mobilizing a lot of women.
Exactly. Opinion polls sample men and women about equally, because that reflects the usual voting pattern. But if the actual vote totals show a higher ratio of female voters (as was the case in the Kansas abortion referendum), the opinion polls will be off. And I suspect women will favor Democratic candidates even more than usual this year.
In “winning” the abortion debate with the Dobbs ruling, the GOP overplayed its hand by promoting repressive, punitive anti-abortion laws. Even many conservative women are turned off by this.
I know this sounds sexist, hopefully with a positive spin, but, in my experience, women are better communicators, organizers, & social networkers. By taking away their rights over THEIR OWN BODIES, health, & destinies, well…the dumbass male fascists have now poked the bear. And they are too arrogant, full of steaks, scotch, & cigars to hear the growling as the beast is coming to maul them. Mark my words, they are in for an ass whooping.
Women are registering to.vote and voting as if their lives depend on it, because they very well.might. We know what happens when the fetus dies,and cannot be removed by D&X: You are carrying a decomposing corpse inside your body, which leads to severe illness or death from sepsis. We know that an ectopic can cause us to.hemorrhage internally or die from shock when the tube ruptures. We know that if we are in mid this carriage and bleeding heaviky, we can bleed to.death if doctors wait until.there is no fetal heartbeat to do thecD&X.
We are fighting for our lives. You are damned right we are motivated.
The men who are motivated are either right-wing nut job evangelical control freaks or those who love and support women. Combine the good guys who care with the ones who are terrified of child support and add in all the new women voters, and we have the majority. I hope it is so.
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