So Russia and Ukraine Are Negotiating. Negotiating WHAT?!

Look, don’t get me wrong. I’m uber glad that Russia and the Ukraine are talking. When you have two opposing modern armies slaughtering each other on the battlefield, especially an urban battlefield, Talking is always better than not talking. I just can’t for the life of me figure out what they’re talking about?

Look, I happen to know a little something about negotiating, although not in the international arena. I spent 20 years as a pilot crew scheduler for United Airlines. The airline had schedules and rules, and the pilots had a contract with the company to protect them. And pretty much any time you asked a pilot to do something, a negotiation was pretty much immediate and assumed. Unless of course the deal favored the pilot, something like You fly this one day trip for me, and I’ll drop your 3 day trip, but pay you for the 3 day trip. These were kind of easy.

But see, here’s the kicker. Both sides went into the negotiation knowing what they wanted, and what the other side wanted. And unless each side thought that they were getting something of equal value to what they were giving up, both sides hung up the phone. The secret was to find the sweet spot in the middle that everybody could live with.

But here’s the problem in a nutshell. What the fuck does Putin want?!? Nobody knows because he himself doesn’t know what he wants. What he wants is already gone. Putin is delusional, he went into this war thoroughly convinced of the invincibility of his armed forces. He foresaw total victory in 10 days, so why bother with a fallback position. And now he’s getting his ass kicked at all turns, and he has no idea of what to do.

The object of any negotiation is to allow each side to come out feeling like they won, or at least they came out even. But Putin’s stupidity, and the pathetic incompetence of his armed forces have made it almost practically impossible to come out of this looking like he even fought to a draw, much less won. An that is intolerable to Putin.

Let’s start with the basics. Putin’s original bullshit premise for invading Ukraine was that Ukraine was committing atrocities against Russians in the two breakaway republics, and he was protecting ethnic Russians. OK Vlad, whatever gets ya through the night. But here’s the problem with that line of reasoning.

If all Putin wanted from his incursion was to protect the ethnic Russians in the two breakaway republics, he could have accomplished that in the first 48 hours! Ukraine didn’t offer serious resistance to the Russian troops that streamed over the border into the two breakaway republics. They’ve spent 8 years fighting these Putin supplied assholes. As long as Putin didn’t demand that the breakaway republics have a say in the Ukrainian legislature or constitution, he could have them, and good riddance. The conflict would be over, with some fancy diplomatic language to follow.

But Putin didn’t stop. Without so much as a pause at the borders of the breakaway republics, his forces streamed over into the middle of Ukraine. And they were joined by Russian troops streaming across the Belarus border, nowhere near the breakaway republics. The implication was clear, Putin wanted to invade and reclaim Ukraine. Which isn’t working out so well for him.

I’m sorry, but from where I’m sitting, Putin is trying to play a traditional ratfuck on the Ukrainians. Keep their government concentrating on negotiations, believing there may be a way to stop the carnage, while he increases his pulverisation of Ukrainian cities. And I say this because of Putin’s opening gambit.

Just look at his starting position for negotiations. Putin wants Ukraine to recognize the sovereignty of the two breakaway republics yet give them representation in the Ukraine parliament. He wants Ukraine to formally recognize Crimea as a part of Russia. He wants assurances that Ukraine will forego any attempt to join the European Union, He wants an ironclad guarantee that Ukraine will never apply for membership in NATO, and he wants a guarantee that Ukraine will demilitarize. Putin is talking about Ukraine turning itself into a vassal state of Russia.

Jesus, Mary and Joseph! Why would Zelensky even consider a single one of those proposals other than giving up the two breakaway republics with a corridor to Russia without recognition in the Ukraine parliament? After all, Ukraine is kicking Putin’s ass right now, and that doesn’t look to change any time in the near future. Why should Ukraine give this arrogant asshole squat diddly to get him off of the ledge he put himself on?

And if you think that the starting position is bad, just wait. What happens when Ukrainian negotiators start demanding Russian war reparations to help them to rebuild their country? Why should Ukraine and the west pay the total freight to rebuild the country.

I’m sorry, but I don’t see anywhere for these negotiations to go. Putin is delusional, autocratic, and a sociopath. The only thing he will accept is the complete capitulation of Ukraine, and Ukraine is not in a position to even consider that. The diplomats will continue to make moo-cow noises while the slaughter continues. And eventually Ukraine will tell Putin to go and fuck himself. As well they should, they’re winning.