Shades Of 2017. The Augers Bode Well For The Democrats In November

Over the last couple of days, there has been more empirical data evidence that shows that the Democrats have lifted themselves by the bootstraps, and are right back in the game for November. Let’s take a look at them, and see why I continue to remain bullish on the Democrats chances in November.

The first one is an expansion into 2022 that I have written about previously in a historical context. In 2017, Trump’s first year in office, there were 7 special elections held for open GOP seats, mostly for loyal House members that Trump had promoted either into his cabinet, or senior White House management positions. Obviously Traitor Tot had a handler, since all of the seats that were opened were in safe GOP districts, which both Trump and the incumbent had won comfortably in 2016.

Those special elections were a nightmare for the GOP, and as I wrote at the time, were the earliest indicators of an impending Blue Wave. While the GOP retained all 7 seats, the Democrats overperformed the 2016 election results by an average of +17, in several cases turning comfortable double digit wins in 2016 into final results within the margin of error for polling.

In 2022 there have been 4 special elections to fill empty House seats, 3 GOP, and 1 Democratic. But the ghosts of 2017 are rearing their ugly heads again. In each of the 3 GOP seats, while the GOP won, the Democrats severely chopped into the GOP’s winning percentage in 2020, making the races close. Worse yet, Democratic voter turnout surged, while GOP turnout lagged significantly. A 2017 redux.

The 4th seat was NY-19, and if there’s a more true swing district, I don’t know where it is. The district went for Obama in 2012, switched over to Trump in 2016, and then switched back to Biden in 2020, by 2 points. The damn district is so even and diverse that it is widely considered a bellweather district for national sentiment. In a strong GOP wave year, the GOP should have won this seat by 8-12 points. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan won it by 2.5 points. Kevin McCarthy had to change his Depends after that one.

But here’s the McGuffin. NY-19 was the first special election test following SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade. Ryan made reproductive choice the centerpiece of his campaign. His opponent, Ken Molinaro, a more traditional Republican with wide name recognition, shunned the abortion issue and instead centered his campaign on the GOP talking points of crime and the economy. Democratic turnout was up, and GOP turnout was down. Obviously the Democrats can run on the abortion issue in November.

How about this one? There is new reporting out that empirically shows that women voters are fired up by the abortion issue. In the weeks leading up to the Kansas primaries, which included a binding referendum to codify abortion into the state constitution, first time registrations for voters had women outpacing men by 15%.

And the same thing is holding up in swing states like AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, and FL. Call ne crazy, but I don’t think that these women are flooding in to register to vote just because they don’t want to see the state bird changed. They’re motivated by the issue of reproductive rights, and the Democrats own that issue.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the youth vote. In 2018 and 2020, fueled by issues like mass school shootings, climate change, and the cost of college, the 18-25 vote helped to give the Democrats 40 seats in the House in 2018, and propelled Biden to the White House in 2020. They did that with the expectation of action, not campaign bullshit.

And Biden has delivered. He signed the first comprehensive gun control legislation in a generation. In signing the IRA, Biden made the largest government commitment to combating climate change in US history. And just today he announced that the US government was wiping out $10,000 in student loan debt for anyone making less than $125,000 a year, and $20,000 for the lowest income students with Pell Grants. Most students saddled with student loan debt see that as a first step, but at least the Biden administration made that first step. And the 18-25 crowd doesn’t want any unintended pregnancies either.

That’s a lot to unpack, but there it is. For me personally, the biggest takeaway is this. Since SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade, the Democrats made a calculation that they could run on that issue all the way to November. And from where I’m sitting, they were right. The polls weren’t wrong when they showed that the threat to democracy and abortion rights were the top 2 issues going into November. Ryan ran on it in NY-19, and brought home the bacon. And with gas prices continuing to come down, and inflation flatlining, the GOP is losing the only things other than culture wars that they had to run on. Don’t touch that dial.