Roll the Countdown Clocks, J6 Indictment Coming Thursday Per Lawfare Editor

Politics is the ultimate dark art and we gather now to read the political tea leaves. Yesterday we learned from Donald Trump that he had received a target letter on Sunday night. Today, Benjamin Wittes, the editor at Lawfare, kicks in his two cents as to how and when Jack Smith will proceed. To his credit, Wittes accurately called the shot on the Mar-a-Lago indictment, which was handed down June 8. Today, he predicts that Trump’s latest indictment will take place this Thursday or Friday.

Now that’s moving pretty fast. But here’s the rationale from his Substack page and it makes sense.

We actually have less information to work with than we did last time, but I think there’s enough—with a few reasonable inferences added—to make a pretty good guess. I’m thinking the indictment is coming Thursday, and the text will become public on Friday.

Let’s start with some working assumptions: After his experience last time of Trump publicly disclosing the fact of the indictment while it was still under seal, Special Counsel Jack Smith will want to minimize the amount of time the indictment is sealed—a period of time in which Trump can talk about it but the public can’t read it.

I think we can also assume that Smith will want to minimize the amount of time between the target letter and the indictment itself. The reason for the target letter is to give Trump a fair opportunity to come into the grand jury if he chooses (he will not so choose, but that’s his decision) and his lawyers an opportunity to meet with prosecutors to try to talk them out of proceedings. Once that opportunity has been meaningfully offered, there is no reason not to move quickly—and every reason to go forward expeditiously. The longer Smith waits, the longer Trump has to lie uncontradicted.

We basically know three things, two of them from Trump, and one of them from the press. From Trump we know (1) that he received the target letter on Sunday, and that (2) it gave him four days to come into the grand jury. From the press, we know (3) that one of Smith’s senior prosecutors was spending quality time with the grand jury last week.

Wittes goes on to point out that prosecutors may have already presented their case to the grand jury, or as he eloquently puts it, “it suggests that the gun is loaded and the safety is off. They don’t need any additional time or steps before pulling the trigger.” Trump will go batshit if anybody reads this to him, it plays into his most infantile fears.

Counting four days from Sunday would bring us to Thursday evening. In fact, however, Smith will know well before Thursday evening whether Trump is coming in (he is not). A visit by a former president to the E. Barrett Prettyman courthouse would require significant Secret Service coordination. It couldn’t be a surprise pop-in. It would have to be arranged both with the special counsel’s office and with the court itself. […]

So I’m thinking an indictment on Thursday or Friday is the most likely scenario. My assumption is that Smith will once again proceed under seal, though he will do so while prepared to move to unseal the charges the moment Trump announces them—which Trump will do immediately. This means the indictment will likely become public on Friday.

It’s already been a pretty wild week, but it could end on a particularly high note.

Another indictment. And there may be yet another one in August, when Fani Willis reveals what she’s been working on. The fantastic irony of all this, is that there is no other job in this nation that Donald Trump could conceivably apply for and get on these facts — yet he’s applying for the highest office in our land. And a corrupt and jaded Republican party is just fine with all this. That’s the horror movie aspect of all this, that but for a complicit GOP, happily ignoring all this when they aren’t openly obstructing justice or creating political theater in Trump’s favor, none of this would be possible.