Reuter’s Poll Indicates Biden Has Strongest Base Of Support, Not Trump

I haven’t seen any nay saying of this particular poll over on Truth Social, but the night is still young. Trumpty Dumpty may not have heard of it yet. And if he does get wind of it, I’m sure he’ll find his way clear to trash Reuter’s, a media outlet which is of the highest credibility along with the Associated Press. Trump has taken great pride in peacocking about how he’s not only going to sweep the GOP primary (which does look to be true) but he’s claims that he’s leading Biden in all the swing states and will simply waltz back into power.

On those facts he will not appreciate what he’s about to see here. The poll shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat, with only two points separating them. That’s a statistical tie, for one thing, for another thing we’re a year out now from the election and Trump is facing very strong headwinds, shall we say, in the form of four indictments and 91 felonies, minor details which people seem to be ignoring as if they didn’t exist. But here’s where it gets interesting.

In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020 — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan — Biden had a 4-point lead among Americans who said they were sure to vote.

Overall, the poll showed deep apathy among many voters at a potential Biden-Trump rematch. About six in 10 respondents said they were not satisfied with America’s two-party system and want a third choice.

Oh yes, and I would like everybody who votes to get a unicorn for a pet and we can all fly to Mt. Olympus  and party down with Zeus and Athena for a killer election night bash. If there’s one reason that the dark art of polling seems to be falling apart in the Era of Trump, it’s because there’s an insistence on some kind of idealistic dream world that doesn’t exist. We have to deal with the world we’re in and there is a very black and white binary choice here: fascism or democracy. As Joe Biden says, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”

Now, naturally RFK, Jr. is bleeding off some votes, predictably from Biden. But that might not be the entire size of it. PoliticusUSA has a piece up analyzing the Reuter’s story and they’re challenging whether the MAGA base is the same size as it was. Now isn’t that an intriguing thought? What if MAGA has shrunk?

There has been a general assumption that Trump has the most committed base of support, but what if he doesn’t?

What if MAGA has gotten smaller since 2020?

With the continued improvement in the economy and voters beginning to feel good about the economy, Trump isn’t going to have much of a message, and it is difficult to see who outside of his most dedicated base will vote for him.

The media isn’t talking about it, but beneath the surface, events are starting to break Joe Biden’s way.

Biden has even turned the Republican taking of Ukraine aid hostage in his direction by being ready to make a deal on the issue of the border.

Impeachment may actually help him and backfire on Republicans, and if the economy keeps rolling along, Joe Biden could be in a pretty good position for reelection.

It is not a coincidence that Trump’s numbers started to drop when he stopped playing golf/appearing in court and started showing his face more on television.

Voters don’t like Trump, and that hasn’t changed.

No poll should be relied on or taken seriously at this point, but there is something happening and it might be good for Biden and Democrats in 2024.

The last sentence here is the takeaway. It’s a bit early to be counting chickens that haven’t hatched yet. Also bear in mind that while, in our polarized country, people may not be jumping up and down for Biden right now, there is no indication that they would prefer a radical change, and changing from democracy to fascism — which is what Trump is promising, and in spades — is what a vote for Trump comes down to.

On a more practical level, the business of scientific polling is difficult because a lot of people simply don’t answer their phones if they don’t recognize a phone number. I’ll answer a strange number simply because I like to ruin telemarketers’ day, it’s a small hobby of mine. But a lot of people simply won’t show up for polls and it’s a hard business to be in. I would not want to be in it, especially in the Era of Trump.

Plus there’s what’s called the “troll factor” which is that it’s probably going to freak the pollster out to be for Trump, so go ahead and say that. Although, let me point out that Trump under-polled reliably in 2016, which is why we all got caught so blindsided on Election Night. Now we’re considerably more wary.

There are no simple answers, but many interesting theories. My solution, now and always, is Get Out The Vote. We have no other choice. And you can’t go wrong always fighting like you’re thirty points down.

So screw the polls. Let’s get into action and Get Out The Vote. That’s our only guarantee of democracy continuing and Trump losing — yet once again. Has he gotten tired of losing yet, ya spose? Or has the GOP? Or are they both living in some dream world that even though the Republicans got trounced in 2018, 2020, and 2022 (remember the red tsunami that wasn’t?) somehow it’s all going to reverse course. Just remember, denial is not just a river in Egypt, it is the credo of what’s left of the GOP as it continues to collapse, slowly but surely, and it’s obsession with Trump guarantees that a new conservative party of some sort must rise from the ashes of whatever’s finally left of this one.