Putin’s Real Life Game of “Risk” Getting Riskier

Going to war when you don’t have to tends to not work out well for the leaders of countries (and often their entire countries) who choose to start a war.  It’s one thing to respond to an attack of some sort, when national survival is at stake.  However, as I’ve said so often before sometimes war is the best choice of a lousy, even sh*tty set of options.  That then and only then should it be considered.

I happen to love history.  I don’t however love how people, both powerful individuals and people in places up to entire countries refuse to heed its lessons.

One lesson we are watching happen in ugly real-time is that choosing to go to war when you haven’t been attacked, and worse your national survival isn’t at stake is NOT a rational act.  Almost always, even if not right away then eventually the leader who leads his/her country into a war of choice (and the attempted takeover of Ukraine was a choice, not a necessity for Putin and Russia) winds up losing.  So does his/her country.

Choose to go to war when you don’t have to you lose.  And countless people pay the price.  You want examples?  Neither Japan or Germany needed to take the actions they did and start wars in their theaters of the conflict.  But both had grand ideas of huge empires.  They even wound up joining together, with no doubt each figuring when the time came for the two of them to fight it out for who would rule the world they’d win.  (Each believed in their own racial superiority I might add)  Not long after WWII North Korea’s “Great Leader” decided it was time to “liberate” the south and he steamrolled through all the way to the Pusan perimeter (as it was called) in the southern tip.  Once we and allies got organized we kicked North Korea back across the boarder/DMZ and in one of history’s tragic misjudgements (by MacArthur) all the way to the Yalu.  Had MacArthur accepted that others might actually know more than he did he’d have stopped forty miles or so short of that and left NK with a small buffer (the original had a typo – “bugger” does kind make sense though!) zone between a new Korea (with lots of American troops) and China.  But no, he had to push it and more or less threatened China with crossing the river and setting up shop on their side.  China didn’t wait for that war to start – they counter-attacked before being attacked and pushed US back.  And the whole thing ended pretty much where it started.

Vietnam?  That war had been going on long before we got truly involved in a major way.  But Westmoreland was convinced if he could build up the kind of force he envisioned we could fight an “American style” war over there an win.  Tragically he convinced his superiors and you know how all that worked out.  Do I really need to get into Bush 43’s war of choice in Iraq?  And the costs throughout the region?

I think I’ve made my point.

Putin didn’t need to try a full-on invasion and takeover of Ukraine.  But he was looking at getting up there in years and not only not moving towards his dream of a new, more powerful Soviet Union but that it was getting less likely to happen.  He needed (so he thought) a bold stroke.  One that would by grab make Europe and the world fear him and Russia again.  Get his seat back at the table of the world’s movers and shakers.  Yes, there were certain objectives that would strengthen Russia’s military and economic capability but that’s too much to get into right now.  “Pootie” wanted not just a seat at the big boy’s table again but be seen as a true challenger to sit at the head of the table.

So he initiated a war of choice.  Not only did he not win with a quick decapitation of Ukraine’s leadership and control of the countryside in a week or so, he still hasn’t won.  The initial gains were it.  And he’s been driven back from many of them.  He hasn’t won, which is damned near as bad as losing after a while.  It’s been “a while” for quite some time now and he’s gotten increasingly desperate.

Putin has been taking increasing risks to try and keep from losing the war in Ukraine.  One might even argue desperate risks.  As this article notes, Russia has been shifting an awful lot of quality (on paper at least) units and troops from other parts of that vast country to deal with the fact they not only aren’t winning in Ukraine, but are now clearly losing.  The only part of Russia’s military that hasn’t been badly depleted are it’s fighter and attack fixed wing aircraft – which they’ve been reluctant to risk.  Some have been shot down and they don’t have the money or manufacturing means to replace them.

What I found so interesting in the article was the details.  I’ve long suspected things might get to this point and even saw possible signs it was either taking place or in the works.  Now I know it’s a reality.  Shifting forces to deal with Finland now being part of NATO doesn’t worry me all that much.  I expect those Russian units will be well back with strict orders to avoid anything provocative.  The last thing Putin wants is for a member country to invoke NATO’s famed Article 5 (An attack on one is an attack on all and will be answered with military forces of the entire alliance if called upon to do so) because his still largely intact collection of fighter/attack jets would be destroyed within 24 hours (if it took that long!) and especially with Finland now a NATO member the close cooperation that already existed would go into a new mode.  The Baltic is now effective a NATO lake and between that and NATO forces in the Mediterranean Putin’s Navy would also go the way of the submersible Titan.

All those units protecting Russia’s eastern border with China are what I find really interesting.  China and ancient country and culture compared to Russia has never actually been friends with the latter.  In fact there’s a history of conflict between these two large countries.  If at times they’ve allied, it’s been in the “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” (for the moment) type of thing.  I for one think China has long looked at all those natural resources in Russia and wondered “what if WE controlled that land?”  Is it possible that from the get-go Xi thought Russia might not win in Ukraine?  And that the time might come when Putin would become so focused with not losing that he’d start taking risks?  Stupid risks even?  It’s sure as hell something to think about.

Because Putin is taking risks and maybe it’s all adding up to substantial level of risk.  Maybe even to the point of stupid level of risk.  In his quest to, as in the board game “rule the world” he’s making bad choices that will lead to others taking everything away from him.  Leaving him during whatever time he’s still this side of hell to have to sit there and watch others continue with what used to be HIS territories and armies.

Like many who before him that overlooked (or discounted) the possibility that someone might fight back to keep him from taking what he wanted Putin has developed (I think) tunnel vision.  Like others in his position he’s become so focused on getting that result he set out to get he can’t seem to step back and look at the big picture.  It can be like looking down a tube at the goal, and without looking around grabbing anything he can get his hands on and shoving it down the tube to get to his goal.  And not realizing how vulnerable he’s becoming.  Or his country.

Russia didn’t possess the manufacturing capability to replenish its losses from the very beginning of this war.  For a long time it didn’t matter given how many artillery shells and rounds they had in their inventory, and medium & long range missiles too.  As they started to burn through it they got some help from other countries, but unless I’ve missed it there haven’t been stories about new shipments of arms (other than some drones) from other countries in a while now.  Perhaps they have taken a cold, hard look at things including that NATO and non-NATO allies are keeping up support for Ukraine and even ramping up for more and better weapons systems (i.e. F-16s to counter Russian Air Force capability) and other increasingly advanced weapons systems and decided to cut back.  Or cut their losses entirely.

It’s not like Russia is going to be able to pay them back.  At least for a generation.  And again I call your attention to China.  Reports say Putin has been warned that all bets are off if he pops a nuke(s).  And again let me note that Putin has taken some significant forces defending his eastern border with China and shipped them over six thousand miles.  They are now either getting chewed up or about to get chewed up in some serious grind it out in the trenches fighting.  The only thing Russia has that China wants is natural resources and oil & gas in particular.

It might be easier for China to if not take them then cut a deal with Russia that will leave Russia at best a third rate power for at least one and more likely two generations.  Given how other countries have been weaning themselves off Russian energy Putin is counting on China to pay top dollar.  What he’s been doing by stripping away forces on his eastern front means at the appropriate time China can tell him to get stuffed.  THEY will decide the price and it’s going to be a LOT less than what Russia is counting on.

There are lots of moving parts on the board right now.  Putin and Russia consider themselves chess masters.  Maybe he/they aren’t nearly so good as they thought.

I know it’s a lot to keep track of but it’s important that you try.  We are looking at major changes to the world regardless of how all this plays out.