To the surprise of exactly no one a “shakeup” in the Russian Military has begun. “Reassignments”, demotions and arrests. And no doubt already summary executions of officers and some of their subordinates who were stationed along the route of the Wagner Groups advance on Moscow. Given how little fighting took place, Wagner being cleared through some checkpoints, and credible reports of equipment and supplies being left along their route it’s clear they had support of more than a few in the Russian military.
Putin has good reason to be paranoid! So he’s initiated a purge of anyone that might, only might mind you be disloyal.
Not that he’s been trusting anyone but it’s now at “next level to the umpteenth power.” You think Saddam’s measures were extreme? Putin’s probably taking steps that would make Saddam look like some fool walking into a military encampment up in Kurdish territory after he gassed them! In his more rational moments Putin knows damn well he was lied to by his top commanders all along. They painted over piles of bull shiite with roses regarding the readiness of Russian soldiers and all those tanks and other heavy equipment, even mere transport trucks that would roll through Ukraine like a hot knife through butter. Even his Special Ops troops couldn’t take the airport at Kyiv!
Despite taking over some Ukrainian territory and securing a “land bridge to Crimea” that has never been truly secure Putin hasn’t won the war. For him not having won yet and having a puppet government ruling Ukraine is losing. Still, he’s gotten a continuing series of reassurances along the lines of “Okay boss, things haven’t gone as expected BUT we are (cue Agent Maxwell Smart) we are this close” and Putin has talked himself into believing it will all work out. Of course he knows Russia admitting defeat and heading to REAL negotiations, which would involve withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine entirely or worse, having them driven out by military force from Ukraine would mean his rule of Russia would be over. He’d be lucky if the worst for him was an exile in a lot less comfort than he’s used to. More likely is he’d be executed.
His ace in the hole in all this was his former pal and close confidant Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. His hedge against his actual military not being quite up to the job in Ukraine. And when it comes to the ground war Wagner has in fact been far more effective than regular Russian military. Putin likely didn’t mind the public feuding between Prigozhin and his military leadership, figuring the tension would “inspire” each to perform better. However, this summer it will become eighteen months since the invasion of Ukraine began, and Russia is not only NOT winning, it’s now losing ground it had previously captured.
Everyone has been waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. With either eagerness and optimism (albeit with s healthy dose of impatience) or dread depending which side you were on. Prigozhin and the other leaders of Wagner were realists and knew things weren’t looking good for Russia. Add in some idiots in the regular Russian Army attacking his Wagner mercenaries and Prigozhin had had enough. In his mind if HE had been running the show the war would have been won long ago. Back in Russia to rest and refit, it’s now clear that he had sympathizers in the Russian military who felt the same way he did – that their top command didn’t know WTF they were doing and needed to go.
If Prigozhin overestimated how much support he had (he did – he got help but it’s almost certain some got cold feet at the last minute) it was widespread enough, and from the reaction of Russian civilians along the route to make Putin’s blood run cold. Putin’s country has a long history of dictators bringing military forces to heel.
Purges.
Root out any and ever military person, no matter how high ranking and if not execute them send them off to a lifetime (a short one) of hard labor in Siberia. It cost the old USSR dearly but Putin is a product of that old system. Hell, his goal has been to restore it! So just like his dictator predecessors he’s embarking on an old-school USSR style purge of his military.
Don’t think for a second Putin is giving up on his goal of taking over Ukraine. However at the moment his priority is survival. Not just politically but his actual survival. Like many a person with great power who as the saying goes doesn’t know what they don’t know Putin still figures he can manage things directly himself when needed. He also seems to have deluded himself into believing all those Wagner mercenaries, even the substantial portion of them who are furious with Prigozhin for aborting the drive on Moscow will become loyal to him. How likely is that? Let’s just say I left active duty three and a half decades ago and as an NCO. President Biden is more likely to name me Commandant of my Marine Corps than the roughly 50k Wagner mercs throwing in their lot with Putin!
No one in Russia’s military leadership is safe anymore. As I said, demotions have taken place (basically some temporary face-saving for Putin during the biggest crisis he’s ever faced) and arrests too. Not to mention who knows how many along Wagner’s route are now pushing up daisies from unmarked graves in that part of Russia.
One final thought. It’s still unclear about their equipment but apparently a large portion of Wagner has gone to Belarus. Putin lackey Lukashenko who negotiated the Wagner stand down won’t let them set up shop on a military base but there are images of tent cities being built for them. For the time being. It’s enough of a force that Ukraine is making sure it’s ready to handle something coming over the border and Poland is worried enough to be taking steps of their own. And don’t forget that Putin transferred some nukes to Belarus. There’s not a chance in hell Lukashenko could use them. Not without Putin providing the codes and probably even some parts (circuit boards) for them to work but they could at least be used to make “dirty bombs.”
A couple of weeks ago I’d have never entertained such a wild notion but now I can’t help but wonder if Lukashenko might be someone Putin needs to be keeping an eye on too? Might Belarus’ dictator have succumbed to his own delusions of grandeur, and be working on a deal to give Prigozhin/Wagner free reign if he becomes Putin’s replacement? It’s too early for me to flesh out this scenario but I’m thinking of giving it a try soon. First I want to see if Putin starts announcing executions of top generals to make a point of him still being “totally in charge.”
It’s going to be an interesting week or so. Not in any good way mind you. But we should all be paying attention. Things will probably get both crazier and worse before they get better.
Wouldn’t a purge weaken an already failing military? Or just scare the surviving ones to knuckle under and fight even harder?
Stalin’s Great Purge in the mid to latter 1930s expanded to the Red Army and Navy. At the same time Hitler was doing his thing, and while some of Hitler’s military leaders disagreed he and others on his staff saw a Russian military weakened by Stalin’s paranoia as an opportunity. Remember, initially Stalin and Hitler were allied. But as I’ve just said Hitler saw a weakened Red Army and Navy, and given the isolationist attitude of the U.S. figured even if Stalin were to wind up asking for our help that we’d even be involved in Europe, much less start helping Stalin. My point is that even in the face of serious, even devasting consequences Russian dictators have gotten stupid when it comes to their military and it’s leaders they fear might be growing too powerful. Russia/USSR has for over a century been a dictatorship during most of that time. And a hallmark of maintaining control for any of its dictators and “The Party” has been fear – with the military being used to not just quell but CRUSH any rebellion. Take that fear away from the populace and “Uh Oh.” So, it naturally follows that the dictator/Party maintains iron fisted control over the military. They can’t maintain power without it. So even when common sense dictates a cautious approach from where they sit ANY betrayal from their military must not only be met with widespread punishment for anyone with even an incidental connection to conspirators or even “conspirators” but be seen by all.
Without power Putin can’t rule. In fact he’ll probably be executed himself in short order so strategic thinking and long-term consequences are the last thing on his mind. Survival is. He figures he’ll deal with the problems of a purge and the short-term negative effects (the war in Ukraine, projecting an image of being a powerful leader to other nations both friend and foe) down the road.
So the Russian way is to maintain the iron fist at all costs.
Yep. Tunnel vision. If you’re trying to drive a gasoline truck any distance it tends to not work out so well.
Reckon putie pie is sh*tting himself. A purge is what someone very, very, frightened of losing power does. Strong secure leaders, not authoritarians, pick appropriate people to do the work they cannot do. Obviously putie hasn’t done this having given away plum agencies within the russian government to cronies, yes-men, etc. Because the cronies are likely a bunch of dipsh*ts like putie, they fail at running government agencies-like the agency (I guess ministry in russia’s case) running russia’s military. No one knows what they are doing in the military from the top down and it is very evident now. Authoritarians pick people who won’t threaten authoritarian rule and that means picking people who are eternally grateful to the leader and/or eternal f**k-ups.
People, superiors/supervisors, who have worked with putie have stated just how inept he is. He has proven them right at every turn.
(Moderator’s Note: Language spike. A day now or then where I don’t have to edit you to keep the Google algorithms that search our comments for certain words isn’t enough. A post where I have to edit should be the exception and not the rule.)
Hurt Russian military? Yes and no. Some will die or be exiled (Siberia). But eventually (?) all will be in lock step. Sort of. Less Russians to the combat zone but less … yeah who knows.
“now I can’t help but wonder if Lukashenko might be someone Putin needs to be keeping an eye on too? Might Belarus’ dictator have succumbed to his own delusions of grandeur, and be working on a deal to give Prigozhin/Wagner free reign if he becomes Putin’s replacement?”
Yes I’ve been thinking somewhat along those lines. Not necessarily that Luka thinks he might become Putin’s replacement, although that’s always possible — but that at least having the Wagner Group based in Belarus would give him some tangible backup against Putin, not to mention also against the Belarusian opposition. I don’t think he really enjoys being Putin’s lapdog, for him it’s just a survival skill.
I think Lukeshenko wants the Wagner Group in his country as a warning, perhaps even a warning to putie.
The photo at the top actually shows a POLISH officer being manhandled by two guys in Red Army uniforms.
If I were putin I’d stay away from windows in high rise buildings for a while.