There are known knowns, and there are known unknowns. But then there are unknown unknowns Donald Rumsfeld
Well, well, another census has come and gone. And as a result, GOP controlled legislatures all over the country are gleefully carving up their state maps to their advantage. But redistricting is based on the census. And for the GOP, that’s potentially a huge problem.
2020 was a census year. And you know what else 2020 was? The year of the Covid shutdown. With a twist. The census officially started early in the year, but participation was expected to be down because everybody was locked down. Teri and I chose to be counted by going to the website, but there was a shortage of census counters, and many people chose not to answer the door if the census counter showed up. And as with so many things, it was minority communities who suffered the most from the lack of service. How badly was the actual minority population undercounted?
So that’s one thing, the count may be flawed by uncontrollable circumstances. And now I fear that I must get slightly morbid, but it’s pertinent. On MSNBC today, Dr Peter Hotez reported that in 2021, more than 200,000 Americans died stupidly and needlessly. They refused to get vaccinated, went to the emergency room, the ICU, and then the cemetery. And according to Hotez, the vast majority of those came from GOP controlled red states. No matter how you slice it, 200,000 is a lot of people. And one more statistic of note. The last poll I saw showed that while 91% of Democrats were vaccinated, less than 50%of Republicans were. So, based on the dynamics of the virus, even in swing states GOP voters were statistically more likely to succumb to Covid than democrats. How many of them were counted in the census, and aren’t around anymore?
And now for the twist. Trump was still President in 2020. And for most of that year, up until the fall when the SCOTIS told him to Get that lame shit outta here!, Trump flunky Wilbur Ross had a question on the census requiring disclosure of citizenship status. As a result, it is highly likely that a considerable number of Latino citizens declined to respond to the census, in order to protect undocumented friends and family members.
Here’s why this is so important. We’ll take Texas as a poster child, although there are other red states, such as Arizona and Georgia, who are in the same boat. Texas experienced explosive growth in the last 10 years, to the point that it picked up a couple of House seats as a result.
But 95% of that growth was fueled by an increase in minority populations. And Texas has been steadily turning purple over the last few cycles, again fueled by minority growth, and increased Democratic activism leading to higher minority voter registration.
But how many of those minorities were undercounted due to the lockdown, and a shortage of census takers in minority neighborhoods? And how many legal Hispanic voters declined to participate in the census in order to protect vulnerable family and friends? And with a Governor who fought vaccines and mask mandates tooth-and-nail, how many GOP Texans died in the last 18 months that the GOP legislature knows nothing about?
Even under ideal circumstances, gerrymandering is as much an art as a science. And in 2020, Trump personally tried to gerrymander the fucking census to the GOP’s advantage. Because he’s a total moron. The GOP needs accuracy in the census in order to gerrymander effectively. And we may well have a census that is such a total mess that it’s almost impossible to use effectively. Don’t give up on 2022 just yet. There may be lots of surprises, especially in places like Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and Florida. Stupid is as stupid does.
Someone remind me…outside of inheriting wealth he squandered, being lucky in Comey’s letter and having exactly one competent DOJ underling in Rosenstein, has ANYTHING Trump has ever set out to do ultimately worked out for him?
I know these voting demographers can carve up neighborhoods at the household level. the repubs have created one Austin district to cram as many liberals in one place. They divided up the trump voters as best they could. I am not convinced all these ‘safe’ republican districts are all that safe. There just are not that many white people left here. One thing that has changed is that the white vote used to be pretty split between republicans and Democrats. There has been a big swing of whites to the republican party as the demographics have changed. Texas has also been getting a big influx of people from California. I don’t know how that is going to play out in the long run. Perhaps it is the last republicans leaving the state or it could be more moderates/liberals coming here. In any case, it will continue to swing districts beyond what the census 2020 found.
The gerrymander the thugs did here in Mississippi will dilute the black vote in some districts, but not change the number of Democrats sent to DC. Bennie Thompson will remain our only Democrat in DC, unless my district flips. It is the only one that has a chance. We only have four reps.