My Prediction For November 8th? Watch For Surprises, Lots Of Surprises

I don’t care what the polls say, don’t think for a hot minute that the US House isn’t up for grabs in 3 1/2 weeks. Both The Cook Report, as well as Nate Silver’s 538.com show that with Safe and likely races following pattern, the GOP has likely about 210 seats, with the Democrats holding 190. Which means that the Democrats would have to basically run the table and win about 80% of the toss up races to maintain control of the House. And I don’t buy it.

Yeah, I know, Wadda I know? I’m just a loudmouth Mick with an opinion and a platform. But I’ve been hooked on politics for more than 50 years, I watch and analyze polls the way other guys pore over box scores. And I can tell when something is off. An this year, everything is off.

For starters, reputable pollsters and predictive organizations like The Cook Report and 538.com use a complicated mix of past historical patterns, and complex computerized predictive algorithms. But both of those things share one thing in common, that traditional and normal historical and current results can lead you to an accurate projection. And I’m sorry, but this year? There is nothing that is normal, historically or otherwise.

To begin with, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell put his thumb on the problem perfectly when he poured cold water over the GOP retaking control of the Senate in November. And his biggest kvetch was a little something he called Candidate Quality. I normally don’t agree with McConnell on the time of day, but I agree with him 100% on this.

When this cycle started, most organizations listed 5 Democratic held Senate seats ripe for the plucking. They were GA, NH, CO, AZ, and NV. And today, the NRSC has pulled ad funding from NH, AZ, and CO and is putting it in places they shouldn’t have to, like OH, NC, and even FL. And in the 2 potential flip states remaining, GA and NV, both Warnock and Cortez Masto have small but durable leads.

The GOP Senate roster in 2022 is like a leaky money sieve. Sweet Jesus, Trump won Ohio by 8 points, but McConnell has had to dump $20 million from his Leadership PAC in there to prop up Hillbilly Vance. In a first term midterm, Li’l Marco should be able to phone his campaign in, but Democrat Val Demmings is within 5 points, and the NRSC is pumping money in to prop him up. And don’t even get me started on the North Carolina race, where Richard Burr’s now empty seat is a statistical tossup.

In the House, the issue is no clearer, but for 3 different reasons which we’ll go int. The first is the same as the Senate, Candidate Quality. Trump has personally pushed through an entire roster of brain dead Trombies to run in the House, with special attention paid to turfing out GOP members who denied him. And as a result, they have a roster of candidates that are incapable of winning in swing districts in the general election. Most pollsters and prognosticators use a from that is based on a normal party candidate. And the GOP has nothing near normal candidates in these swing districts.

The second factor is what I have repeatedly called Trump Fatigue. While the GOP and the RNC may have no choice but to do the bunny hop with Trump to keep iis 32% cretin base, everybody else in the country is sick to death of his dumb ass. And here’s the poster child for this thesis. In CO-3, Trombie incumbent Lauren Boebert is in a statistical dead heat against her Democratic opponent 26 days before election day. CO polling shows that independent voters are horrified at her infantile antics. And in Georgia, polling shows that a significant number of GOP voters are ready to split their ballot by voting for Kemp for Governor, but Warnock for Senate. I guess a whole lot of voters still kind of like to have their elected officials represent them, and not Traitor Tot.

But I saved the best for last. Voter Issues. In almost every national poll, the top issue voters are motivated by is The economy. An when they can be torn away from their personal scandals, the GOP is running hard on the economy. But the next two top issues motivating voters are Threats to democracy, and reproductive rights. And these are the two issues the Democrats are hammering into the ground. The next highest campaign priority for the GOP is crime, and that isn’t even in the top 5 in national polling.

Here’s where the cheese binds. In Every. Single. Battleground. State, the number of new registrations for women voters is outpacing the new registrations for men voters by 20-35 points. And hew 18-24 voter registration is up as well. Gee, what could possibly be motivating all of these women and young voters to register to vote? Bodily autonomy maybe?

And here’s where the pollsters modeling falls apart. None of these new voters will appear on the voters list for the pollsters to contact, they’ve never voted before. But ask yourself this one simple question. If they never voted before, why would they go through the time and trouble to bother to register to vote now, if they weren’t going to show up to vote? And what is motivating them?

There is a huge unpolled or underpilled block of voters out there that are totally capable of of flipping the standard models on their ears. And when you look at the age and demographics of these sleeping giants, it isn’t hard to see which way they’ll lean. My personal projection, subject to change? The Democrats pick up 2-4 seats in the Senate, and pick up 5-12 seats in the House. Vote your ass off, and motivate everybody you know to vote too. Democracy is on the ballot.