My Favorite Part Of The Campaign Starts On Tuesday.

Since Trump insists on acting as if the coronavirus isn’t there if he just doesn’t talk about it, and since he’s still trying to take health care away from millions of Americans, I thought I would start off today with a quick triage of some of the more vulnerable GOP Senate candidates in 2020.

On Life Support – Susan Collins of ME   Corey Gardner of CO   Martha McSally of AZ

Critical Condition – Joni Ernst of IA   Thom Tillis of NC   Lindsey Graham of SC

Serious Condition – Mitch McConnell of KY   John Cornyn of TX   David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler of GA

I did this for a reason. You have all heard me talk before about the incumbent advantage that makes it difficult to oust a sitting MOC. Nowhere has that been more true than now. For starters, these vulnerable incumbent GOP Senators ran largely unopposed, or with minimal opposition in the primaries, allowing them to husband their cash on hand for the general election. Also, even Democratic challengers running against vulnerable opponents couldn’t go on the all out offensive, as most of them had competitive primaries of their own to run, which costs cash. And once the primaries were over with, the incumbents were all at home on their summer vacation, and could campaign throughout the state at their will, countering their newly minted opposition.

Which is why I created my triage list. Because even with all of those advantages, all of the Senators on the On Life Support lost, and all of the incumbents on the critical list, save Lindsey Graham, who is tied, are already trailing their challengers! And the ones in serious condition are by no means out of the woods, and their challengers all have room to grow as the public tunes in and learns more about them. And this is the last place in the world that a vulnerable incumbent wants to be right now, especially one with an unpopular President with no political coattails is topping the ticket.

Which is why my favorite part of the campaign commences on Tuesday. Because starting on Tuesday, the incumbent advantage dies! On Tuesday, the congress returns to Washington, with a plate full of heavy duty shit to get done. There’ll be the incessant argle-bargle about another Covid relief extension. And then there’s the fact that they have until the end of the month to come to grips with a new federal budget, and the dreaded “S Word”, Shutdown, is already flying around the capitol, which would be a debacle for the GOP.

And while all of these cheese dicks are stuck in Washington, dealing with all of the handiwork of governance, their erstwhile opponents are all sitting around back home, free to smack down the incumbents with everything they say or do. And if a challenger can find, and define an issue early in the week, and present a compelling contrast, there’s nothing that the incumbent can do except to wait for the weekend to rush home and try to defuse the bomb, when people have heard a week of one side of the story hammered home.  From Tuesday through election day, GOP incumbents are going to be behind the curve when it comes to messaging at home for reelection, simply because their challengers have nothing better to do.

Which is why Trump’s stunning disregard and even disgust for veterans and fallen US heroes is such a debacle for the GOP. Texas Democratic MJ Hegar, a purple heart Army combat chopper pilot has already come out on MSNBC to condemn Trump’s remarks, and I can only imagine the kind of coverage she’s getting locally in Texas. One would assume the same from Amy McGrath in Kentucky. I’ve had the television on all weekend, and nothing but crickets from Cornyn and McConnell, who are afraid to poke their heads up. That changes on Tuesday when they get back into the meat grinder of Capitol Hill, and the ravening press.

Think about all of the military bases in North Carolina, where Thom Tillis is already flailing. And the same for South Carolina, which might just be enough to put Leningrad Lindsey out to pasture once and for all. Colorado Springs is the home to the US Air Force Academy, and Texas is chock-a-block full of military installations. And as far the general election is concerned? Trump wanted to turn Nevada into a flip opportunity, but we have Area 51 as well as Nellis Air Force Base, and a large veteran population. And sweet Jesus, Florida is nothing much more than one giant military installation that allows civilian sleepovers.

The goal for any incumbent is to come out of Labor Day with a comfortable enough lead to be able to easily weather any slings and arrows that come their way while they can’t really defend themselves all that effectively. But two days before Labor Day, there are already enough seats to flip the Senate in which the GOP incumbent is already trailing their opponent, before the opponent even gets the chance to pound them into ground round. And Trump’s erratic behavior will only provide the Democratic challengers with more gasoline to pour on the bonfire. The future of the Senate is starting to look pretty damn good. Don’t touch that dial. And Get Out The Vote!