McCarthy Loses Round 1. Then Round 2. Ouch! (Updated)

As expected Kevin McCarthy failed to get the votes he needed to become Speaker on the first ballot.  The only question would be how far short he was.  Turned out 19 fellow Republicans voted for someone else.  That had to hurt, especially as some of those votes went to his pal Gym Jordan.  Jordan himself got up to nominate McCarthy for the second ballot.  I guess it was an attempt to get those folks that voted for him to switch.  Interestingly enough, multiple pundits have noted what Jordan didn’t say in his nomination speech which was something to the effect of “I appreciate it, but please… If you voted for me switch your vote to McCarthy.”  Hmmmmm.  However, it’s worth noting Jordan wants the gavel of the House Judiciary Committee as badly as McCarthy wants the “big hammer”/Speaker’s Gavel.  I guess Jordan has a tiny bit of sanity and knows there’s no chance this side of hell he can become Speaker.

The big question being considered by pundits, and McCarthy and his allies as well as his opponents is what’s next.  As this second ballot is now well along McCarthy has made up little if any ground.  Hell, some of the Jordan voters again voted for him despite his nominating McCarthy!  So it’s clear that right now and probably for the rest of the day McCarthy won’t be elected Speaker.  Had that 19 vote gap closed quite a bit it would be one thing.  But it’s not, at least not anywhere near enough that he can make some quick deal.   Right now when it comes to McCarthy I’m thinking of an old Simon & Garfunkel tune, paraphrased to say “the nearer you are to the Gavel the more it’s slip sliding away!”

Does McCarthy decide to fall back and regroup by asking someone to motion to adjourn for the day?  The conventional wisdom is that the longer this goes on, the less chance he has of prevailing.  As I’m writing this the final tally of the second vote still has him 19 votes short.  But some of the holdouts are pushing Jordan.  THAT will never fly with moderates, or what passes for moderates when we are talking about Republicans.  Many come from Biden districts and know damn well voting for a Speaker Jordan would mean losing their seat in two years.  So there’s that.

Then there’s the question that’s been out there for a while which is some mystery candidate that’s been kept super secret that will suddenly emerge.  One who would be acceptable to conservatives and with a lot less deal making than McCarthy has engaged in.  No name has emerged but I can see where we might see Steve Scalise being put up as the “consensus” candidate.  There’s still the problem of the “Fanatic Five” who want to make like Steve Bannon and burn the whole thing down.  So at some point the GOP will need to have a quiet chat with Democrats to make up for those five votes, like maybe no Jordan getting a Committee chair gavel.  Or idiots like Greene getting one either.  And essentially worthless Committee assignments for her and Bobblehead.

One thing I’m sure of is Keven McCarthy can display all the bravado he wants (as he’s doing) on the House floor in the midst of all this, but he’s feeling like he’s been simultaneously gut-punched and kicked in the balls.   That Speaker’s Gavel has become a grease pig – damned tough to get a grip on.  Maybe he should give former Congress Critter Devin Nunes a call for advice.  If you’re familiar with ShowerCap Blog then you know the he’s got an obscene nickname he frequently used for Nunes – Pig “rhymes with sucker.”  Perhaps Devin can give him tips on how to grab ahold of the prize.  Whatever.

There’s no telling what’s next.  The House can’t conduct a single bit of business including swearing in the new House until a Speaker is chosen!   The prospect this could go on for days isn’t going to be a good look for the GOP.  And for those folks out there, the socially moderate but fiscally conservative types who assumed the GOP had finally learned its lesson in 2020 and (barely) put the House back in GOP hands will (and likely already are) think twice about who they vote for in 2024.  And the truly crazy conservatives?  If they don’t get their way NOW, they are as likely as not to say screw it in two years and not vote at all.  Or ensure even crazier candidates emerge from primaries.

Either way the GOP, and particularly the new House GOP will have to think long and hard tonight, and perhaps in the days to come.  They can get their act together and push a hard-core conservative agenda, winning some battles and losing others but letting Congress do its business or they can hand the keys to Democrats in 2024 with a large working majority in the House, and even holding the Senate and maybe picking up another seat or two despite what should be a GOP advantage on the map.  If McCarthy is feeling sick inside right now, McConnell is probably feeling just as sick.  Of course, if he says to hell with it and retires (possible if he thinks he’ll never be Majority Leader again) then the GOP Senate caucus won’t be much better than what we’ve got in the House!

Well, back to the House.  It looks like we are headed for a third ballot today.  Will the “Gavel Nazi” relent and “serve” McCarthy?  Stay tuned.

***UPDATE: As anyone reading this surely knows McCarthy’s quest failed (again) in Round 3 of voting.  Worse, not only did all the (Republican) contrary votes go to “Gym” Jordan (I know – he’s hard to recognize wearing a freaking jacket today!) in Round 2, Jordan wound up picking off one of McCarthy’s votes bring his own total to 20 instead of 19!  Jordan’s nomination speech before Round 2 didn’t have the effect McCarthy had counted on.  Of course, again I note Jordan neglected to ask folks who voted for him in Round 1 to please, pretty please vote for McCarthy instead.  Could Jordan actually think he might have a shot himself?  Hey, he’s gotten away with ignoring, and even refusing to protect college wrestlers under his charge from being groped/molested/ogled at Ohio State so who knows what he thinks he can get away with now?

The other thing you already know is that the rumored plan of McCarthy’s to keep everyone there until late, or maybe half the night (or longer) to keep voting in the hope they would cave in and give him the damn gavel went bye-bye.  Maybe McCarthy decided to pull the plug for the day, fall back and regroup.  Maybe the not-yet sworn in Representative from Oklahoma decided it was a really bad look for the GOP today and wanted them to have their fight behind closed doors.  But there was support to call a halt to this Cluster F**k until tomorrow.  So the House is in recess while the GOP tries to figure out what to do.

Here’s their problem though.  Democrats can use that same time to figure out what THEY will do tomorrow!  Jim Clyburn already tossed the basic concept out there.  Find a non-nutjob (not a moderate even, just someone who isn’t crazy) that a small group of Republicans can support and join them in making that person Speaker.  Unsaid was that Democrats would have a “suggestion” or two regarding what it would take to get them to bail the GOP out.  They can’t push too hard or they’ll get drawn into the mosh-pit.  However the important part is that during this recess while the GOPers are throwing feces at each other like rabid monkeys Democrats can game out various scenarios and how to respond to them.  Be ready to be nimble tomorrow or something like that.

Still, we are way out there in WTF is going on land and there’s no telling how crazy the crazy is going to get.  From where I sit any predictions are a fool’s errand.  You’d have better luck taking a month’s worth of LSD and crystal meth & trying to read a half melted globe in some clairvoyant’s shop.  Through a blindfold.

All bets are off.  It’s not as ugly a show as the January 6 riot, but keep in mind the rest of the world is watching this mess and it’s not a good look for our country.***