Mark My Words. Mariupol Will Be Putin’s Waterloo

In war, the blunders are not permitted   Russian proverb

Folks, Vladimir Putin is fresh out of blunders. Putin’s 1st blunder was going into Ukraine during the thaw, and spreading his forces too thin trying for a knockout punch. The only thing that saved the Russian army is that the generals were smart enough to pull out, back behind their own borders, rather than dig in for a protracted war of attrition as the US did in Vietnam. But they haven’t gotten any smarter.

Teri and I just got home today when I heard two sets of numbers that shocked me on MSNBC. The first was that the UN-Red Cross had managed to pull off another miracle evacuation from Mariupol today. The estimate I heard was that less than 300 civilians were still inhabiting the tunnels under the steel plant. This is great news.

Then I heard something that totally blew my mind. MSNBC reported that there are still somewhere in the neighborhood of 2000 Ukrainian fighters and civilians occupying the tunnels under the steel factory. The last estimate I heard was closer to 600. But no matter what the number between the edges, if they have any kind of ammunition left, I can sum this war up with three simple words. Putin. Is. Fucked.

A brief aside. In WWII, the worst thing a commander could ask a platoon to do was to engage in house-to-house fighting. For a simple reason. You had to charge a building with embedded enemy forces inside, through a limited number of access points. Then you had to go room to room, clearing out enemies who already knew you were coming, and the only way you could come. The losses were heavy.

In Vietnam, it was different. The worst job in Vietnam for a Marine was being a tunnel rat. The Vietnamese dug myriad, labyrinth tunnels to store munitions and supplies. When I was with United, I worked with a guy who was a tunnel rat. He said it was the worst experience of his life. They lower you into the tunnel armed with nothing but a 45, since you had to hold your flashlight with your other hand. Man, talk about nightmare city.

BuT no matter how many Ukrainian fighters are left in those tunnels, for the Russians this is the worst of both worlds. By their nature, tunnels only allow a limited number of people to pass at one time. Two Ukrainians under cover at the far end of the tunnel can stall a Russian platoon indefinitely. Add to it the fact that the Ukrainians will control the lighting down there, forcing the Russians to advance through the dark whenever they please. And worst of all, the Ukrainians know these tunnels like the back of their hand, while the Russians have no idea of where they’re going.

There are two reasons why this is critical. First, Monday is May 9th, the most celebrated day in communist Russia. It is the day that the Russians put the nail in the coffin of the Nazi’s. Putin desperately needs a win to brag about on May 9th, and he has chosen having the russian flag flying over Mariupol.

But that’s now unlikely to happen. If Ukraine has any measurable number of fighters in those tunnels, and they have any ammo at all, they can literally tie the Russians up for weeks, if not indefinitely. And as long as the steel factory hlds out, Russia can’t raise the flag, the city is still contested. Not that Putin won’t declare victory, but without a picture of a Russian flag over Mariupol, it will ring hollow, and Putin knows it.

But strategically it’s much, much worse, not only for Putin but for the overall Russian war effort in Ukraine. Because once again, Putin has put personal vanity and political expediency over military tactics. This is the problem with having a maniac dictator in charge of the military. They don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground.

I’ll explain. Two weeks ago, when the Russians, after almost a month stood behind their own borders in order to reequip and update their strategy, sent somewhere around 100,000 men into the Donbas region to engage the bulk of the Ukrainian forces, they did it with one specific goal in mind. And that was that the Ukrainian army in the south would have cleared Mariupol, left a screening force behind to hold the town, and wheel north and west to catch the Ukrainian forces in a pincers movement. That was the plan.

But they’re not there. And they’re not coming anytime soon. Because Putin has to have his photo op. And nothing else matters. And meanwhile, every day that the Ukrainian army, well equipped with the best weapons the US and NATO can send them, only has to face one enemy on one front, the Ukrainians get stronger while the Russians get weaker. Military analysis already shows that the Ukrainians have stalled the Russian advance in its tracks in Donbas.

From where I’m sitting, looking at the maps, Putin’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. If it takes the Russians another 10-14 days to subdue Mariupol, which it well may, by the time they can swing those already two depleted divisions back to the Donbas region, it may be too late. With two weeks to hammer the Donbar Russian forces, the Ukrainians will be able to swing forces and artillery back to meet the Mariupol forces on the way in. Putin has already lost his edge.

At Waterloo, Napoleon risked his entire second attempt to seize power in France on one battle. But a flawed battle plan, poor generalship, and a rigidity that stopped ground units from reacting to field conditions doomed it to failure. I know, I’ve played the scenario. And in Ukraine, the same forces are playing out again. History may not repeat itself, but it sure as shit rhymes.

From where I’m sitting, Ukraine is going to win this war, hands down. The Russian military is inferior, and the generalship is top heavy and monolithic, reliant on population terrorism to mask an inferior fighting force. When this ends, whether it eventually falls temporarily or not, the brave defenders of Mariupol, who were willing to fight to the last man to defend it, will go down as national heroes. Statues will be erected to them, and in a very real sense, they may end up to be the salvation of the nation of Ukraine.