I’ve been walking my mind through an easy time, my back turned towards the sun James Taylor Fire and Rain
Look, I’m no rube. I’ve been observing this shit for a long time now, and I’m pretty good at it. And I’m well aware of the headwinds that the Democrats are sailing into heading into 2022, being Democrats, we can all recite them chapter and verse.
But the point is that every cycle is different, and so are the circumstances. Think back to the Chaos Theory from the movie Jurassic Park. You can place a drop of water in an identical place on the back of a hand, but macroscopic changes in electrical current, skin texture, and minute hairs will send the drop down a different path every single time. That’s politics.
Yeah, I know, only twice since the 1940’s, Clinton in 1998, and Bush Lite in 2002, has an incumbent President picked up seats in a midterm. After two years of control, voters tend to want to rein in some of that control. And there is always a small but persistent group of independent Throw the bums out! voters who would want a change even if St Peter were President.
But that seems to make this year daunting is that there are several issues at play here that are working against Biden, and over which he can exert only minimal control. But that doesn’t mean that those conditions can’t change, and in plenty of time for people to forget them. And Biden has taken proactive steps on several fronts that will take time to show results. Fortunately, there’s time.
First up is Covid. From where I’m sitting Biden has done a phenomenal job on Covid. He used a full government approach to get vaccines distributed nationwide, and got 2 million shots in arms in 200 days. We are now approaching 70% population total vaccination. Biden has liberally used the national guard and active military to send doctors, nurses, paramedica, and respiratory therapists to swamped local hospitals to give the staff a much needed rest. They are normally met at the door with standing ovations from the exhausted staff. But it’s been two years now, and everybody is exhausted.
But there are signs that things are changing. Empirical evidence out of South Africa, Israel, Scandinavia, and northern Europe are showing sharp declines in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. We normally lag 2-3 weeks behind, and some northeast places like New York and New Jersey are starting to show the same results.
If Omicon is actually cresting, and if Americans spend their 4th of July partying without masks, businesses fully reopen, child care places start up again, and kids go back to class in September, Biden’s popularity on Covid is going to go through the roof. And all while the GOP continues to beat the same dead Covid horse.
Next, the supply chain. The supply chain has been fucked up for a long time, but there was never a global shutdown to expose just how badly. But Biden dealt with it swiftly, and effectively. He used his government to negotiate with port authorities, longshoreman unions, and truckers to turn the docks from a 9-5,M-F schedule into a 24/7 operation. And it worked. Despite doomsayer predictions, there were no empty shelves for the Christmas season. And Biden has also embarked on a national program to make trucking a more attractive career prospect for women, who only happen to be 52% of the population. Trucking certification normally takes about 2 months training. Shortages and delays are already down, and if the system keeps working, nobody may even remember it come November, simply because it’s no longer an issue.
Which brings us to inflation, which is at a 40 year high. Look, there is a very severe limit that any President an have on inflation. And Biden is starting out behind an 8 ball, because Traitor tot kept pressuring the Fed to drop interest rates to keep Wall Street profits high even when there was no logical reason to reduce them. One of the tools the Fed has is to slowly lower interest rates to put the brakes on inflation, but because Dumb Fuck forced the Fed to keep them around 0%, they have no toys to play with.
But there are a couple of reasons for the inflation that Biden can control. First, those supply chain problems are leading to shortages, which lead to higher prices. But if the supply chain continues to improve, that will abate over the coming months. The second potential problem is an entirely man made one that Biden is already fully well aware of. It’s called price gouging. Companies are raising the prices for their goods for no other reason than they can. And Biden has already placed US corporations on notice that he has ordered his DOJ to look into any possible cases of price gouging or market manipulation. They’ve been warned, and Biden means business.
Sadly, Biden came into office facing the same basic economic disasters that Obama did in 2009. And like Obama, he is dealing with with them quickly and professionally, with qualified people. We still have 9 months until election day. And if Biden’s plans and solutions work, by the time September rolls around, the GOP just might not have a whole helluva lot to talk about. Patience, Grasshopper. Let’s see how things shake out. There will be plenty of time to panic later.