Kevin McCarthy will NEVER Be Speaker. It’s Simple Math

Whatever happens in November, I’m going to enjoy, Hell, maybe even crow as Kreepy Kevin McCarthy goes down in flames. McCarthy has spent more than a decade pandering to power in his quest for it, and as a result Nobody likes him! Not even his personal Lord and Master, Traitor Tot.

If the Democrats actually retain the House in November, then it’s game over for McCarthy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran headlong into a caucus revolt if he dared to run for House Minority Leader again.

But let’s just say that the GOP flips the House. Right now The Cook Report has downgraded the GOP’s possible gain to 15-30. Let’s lowball and say that the GOP picks up 15 seats in November. That gives them a 7-8 seat edge, about what the Democrats came out of 2020 with.

But here’s the problem. In 2020, as small as the Democratic majority was, they had a plan, and they were largely united. The Democratic caucus is actually 3 caucuses, the more conservative caucus, the moderate caucus, and the progressive caucus. But back in the blue wave year of 2018, the Democrats horse traded their way to a power sharing agreement, limiting Pelosi to 2 terms. As such, in 2020 they were united behind Pelosi.

Likewise in 2022, the GOP is split into 3 factions as well. The traditional GOP caucus, the Tea Party caucus, and the Trombie caucus. But unlike the Democratic caucus strove for party unity at almost all costs, the standing rule for the GOP triumvirate is, and always has been, Me First!

Kevin McCarthy came to the House in the Tea Party Revolution of 2010. He was widely touted as one of the Young Guns, along with Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor. And just look at where those 2 mooks are today. Tilling other fields.

But the whole concept of the Tea Party was that they despised all government that wasn’t them, even the GOP. But they were nothing more than a troublesome minority in the party. McCarthy wanted power, so he tried to mainstream himself instead. And in doing so, blew any support he had in the Tea Party. But he was so loathed by the mainstream GOP that when John Boehner boogied on the Speaker’s role, he chose Paul Ryan to replace him instead of McCarthy. McCarthy could read the writing on the wall.

When Comrade Trump rode in in 2016, McCarthy reengineered himself again, into a slavish Trombie. This sealed the deal with the Tea Party, and blew any good will he still had left with the traditional wing of the GOP. But Trump is by nature paranoid, and he took one look at a guy that switches sides more often than a tennis ball, and pulled in his oar, choosing instead to play on McCarthy’s craven insecurity and lust for power.

So there ya go. Let’s say that the GOP takes the House by 8 seats. Their first duty is to elect a Speaker. But who the hell will it be? In the party of Trump, both the Tea Party and the moderate wing are on the wane, but there are still plenty of them to torpedo a McCarthy nomination. And even if Trump steps in and endorses McCarthy, that’s only likely to make his enemies more devoted to voting him down. And there won’t be 218 Trombies to ram it home.

Personally, I’m bullish on the Democrats chances of maintaining the majority in the House in November. But even if they lose, especially by a small margin, then sit down and strap in. Because the most entertaining political brawl of 2023 will be watching the GOP try to stumble their way into nominating and confirming a totally useless, ineffective Speaker. Let’s just spare them the embarrassment, shall we?