Just A Hunch. Look For An “April Surprise” When The House Reconvenes In April

I’m starting to get a twitch in my whiskers. There’s no way that current House Speaker Mike Johnson has the nickname of MAGA Mike. But as other MAGAts have already shown, being a Trump supporter doesn’t necessarily make him a brain dead Trombie. See Trump supporter Colorado congressman Ken Buck, who is leaving congress nine months early, and forgoing his pay, and trashing the Freedom Caucus on the way out.

From the start of the congressional term in January of 2023, the position of House Speaker was always engineered by the Freedom Caucus to hold the position of a sacrificial lamb. That’s why Sugar Daddy Matt Gaetz personally added a rule allowing any single House member to put forth a motion to vacate the Chair.

The rule was intentionally self destructive. The brain dead twits in the Freedom caucus already knew that they didn’t have the numbers to stop legislation if it was universally popular, and the Democrats threw their support behind it, so they made sure they could sooth their savaged feelings by hammering somebody else.

As nihilistic as the Freedom caucus is, they instinctively knew that being responsible for shutting down the government would be a bad thing going into an election year. And so they, after 15 rounds of humiliation, let Cave-In McCarthy become Speaker for the express purpose of dealing with the Biden government on the budget, with the intention of axing him after he did the dirty.

But then McCarthy got a big head. He actually started dealing with Biden, to the point that he actually negotiated away the debt ceiling as part of the budget extension. He had to go. But they still had to let him pass the the continuing resolution to keep the government open, and then Matt Gaetz got his petty revenge.

MAGA Mike Johnson became Speaker under the same restrictions. The Freedom caucus knew they had no choice but to pass a budget, so they’d let Johnson do the dirty work, and then put him under the hammer. And just to make their position clear, after Johnson presided over passing a $1.3 trillion budget deal with heavy Democratic support, Machine Gun Marjie immediately filed a motion to vacate the Chair, bit without a 48 hour time limit for the vote. The proverbial Sword of Damocles now hangs over his head.

But it’s starting to seem as though MAGA Mike might not be quite the compliant stooge that Fratty Matty and  Machine Gun Marjie thought they had. His job was to take a ration of sh*t for passing a budget bill, and then gridlock the congress for the rest of the year.

But it’s starting to look like Mike Johnson may have a little more spine that the MAGA crowd thought he did. In negotiations with Biden, he indicated his strong desire for the passage of the Ukraine aid deal, and his desire to get the bill to the floor for passage. And Johnson also expressed a desire to bring the Lankford backed immigration bill that passed the senate.

Johnson is already a dead man walking. But he has proven that unlike the Freedom caucus, Johnson has shown a desire to actually do the peoples business in the House on critical issues. And there are no more critical issues than Ukraine support and immigration reform.

I wrote the day after the budget passed through the House that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies was now the shadow Speaker of the House. For the simple reason that if the price was right, Jefferies could deliver a largely unified Democratic caucus to pass legislation. His only rule was that Johnson provide a minimum half of his GOP caucus to avoid making it look like the Democrats were the deciding factor.

Mike Johnson is a man on an island. Reporting is showing that most senior GOP operatives and analysts are already conceding that the House will change in November. Johnson, an at least moderately serious legislator knows that he won’t remain House Speaker in January, even if the GOP retains the House.

But if Johnson has his eye on his legislative legacy, he still has the chance to place his stamp on this congress. The motion to vacate the Chair that Greene filed was not privileged, meaning that there is no time limit to bring the motion to the floor. If she makes the move to make the motion privileged, it kicks off a 48 hour window until a floor vote must be called.

Here’s where Jeffries power as the shadow Speaker comes in. Johnson is a lame duck, and he knows it. But once elevated to the Speaker’s chair, he wants to leave a lasting impression .But if Johnson brings the Ukraine aid bill and the Lankford negotiated immigration bills to the floor, Jefferies can  offer him the two most important things in the world.

First, as long as Johnson can provide something at least resembling a majority of the GOP House caucus, Jefferies can provide more than enough votes to ensure that the bills pass. In the case of the Ukraine funding bill, it would send it to a receptive Senate. And since the immigration bill has already passed the Senate, it would send the bill to President Biden’s desk for signing.

The second thing that Jeffries can offer Johnson is his tenure as House Speaker lasting through the rest of the term. Let’s just say that Johnson calls the Ukraine bill to the floor, and Greene immediately puts a privilege tag on her motion to vacate the Chair. That kicks off a 48 jour window to call the motion to the floor for a vote.

But if Johnson calls the Ukraine bill to the floor for a vote, it triggers a mandatory 2-4 hour floor debate before a final vote on the bill. Johnson can call the bill to the floor, hold the mandatory debate, and pass the bill with Democratic majority support the same day. And he can call the immigration bill to the floor for a vote the next day, and pass it the same day, before the 48 hour time limit on Greene’s privilege motion expires.

The Democrats get two legislative accomplishments going into November, and Johnson gets a legislative immigration achievement for his caucus to run on in November. And then the Democrats provide a unified majority to quell Greene’s motion to vacate the Chair, ensuring that Johnson remains House Speaker for the remainder n. of the term, with no necessary major legislation to have to pass until the general election. And MAGA Mike gets to put his stamp on a congress that has accomplished basically nothing.

Here’s the point. The GOP f*cked up in elevating Johnson to the chair. Johnson was a loyal Trump supporter, but as a career politician, he also had a vested self interest. And once elevated to the Speakership, Johnson has the chance to put his imprint on history. His seat is safe, regardless of what he does. I believe that Mike Johnson is going to be a part of the solution, and not the problem.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.