It’s 100 Days To the Most Existential Election Of Our Lifetime, These Are the Flashpoints

“Imagine yourself in a boat on the river, with tangerine dreams and marmalade skies.” — Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds

2014 was arguably the last “normal” election in this country, normal being defined as when the laws of political physics, as they were currently understood, actually held and things were predictable. 2016 was the year it all went bonkers. 2018 we began a tug of war to hang onto our way of life, 2020 we made an enormous comeback to getting back on track. Now we’re 100 days away from the 2022 midterms and democracy itself is on the ballot. That is no exaggeration, that is the plain truth of the matter.

The Lincoln Project informs us, “There is no longer any such thing as a sure base voter. Flexibility and dynamism are key to candidates and campaigns today. The news changes more quickly now than ever. When opportunities present themselves, and MAGA always provides them, it is critical to take speedy and full advantage of them.”

The Lincoln Project has provided a synopsis of key races across the country.

Today is a primary election day, August 16 is another primary election day. We are girding our loins for battle this month.

These are the crucial races in this country although by no means the only important ones.

Polling

Nevada

Arizona

Wisconsin

Michigan

Pennsylvania

An average of 30 generic Congressional polls taken since Roe ended on June 24th found Democrats leading 44.8% to 42.3%, +2.5 points.  That’s a 4-5 point shift from where the election was in mid-June.

This is not some left-leaning outlier. Notably, 4 influential Republican polls released over the past week show significant Dem leads in generic ballots:

Americans for Prosperity 42-39 (+3)

Echelon Insights              48-44 (+4)

Chamber of Commerce   46-41 (+5)

Winning The Issues         47-41 (+6)

It’s interesting how the identity of the Great American Southwest is crucial to democracy. Nevada and Arizona are major battlegrounds. The MAGAs in Nevada are out for blood. I see Let’s Go Brandon bumper stickers popping up as we get towards election day. I’ve thought of adorning my own car with the appropriate advertising but I prefer to go in stealth mode to spy on the MAGAs.

And you know only too well what is going on in neighboring Arizona. Plus, there are key congressional races in Wyoming and Colorado. MAGA is a threat and that’s an understatement. However, the GOP has way overstepped its bounds with its policies of a national abortion ban, screwing veterans out of benefits, and attempting to drive the gays back into second class citizenship by restricting gay marriage. You add to that the specter of Social Security and Medicare rollbacks and you have a wildly unpopular platform. But it is a platform that makes sense, because the GOP is a rudderless ship right now, with the TV game show host at the wheel, wreaking havoc with the primaries and heading them straight for the icebergs.

Two more major points from Lincoln Project.

Strategy

Unlike most Washington-based committees and organizations, we see the 2022 election in terms of the races that are most likely to affect American democracy. Why? Because many of the candidates running for these offices are Ultra MAGA, Big Lie believers, were at the Capitol on January 6th, have said they will ensure Donald Trump’s victory in 2024, have pledged to deny more Americans their individual rights, or some noxious combination thereof. We must not allow them to achieve their objectives. To that end, we do not see the fight as a contest between state and federal races, though both are important. Instead, we are focused on the following states and races:

Arizona – Governor, US Senate, Secretary of State

Nevada – Governor, US Senate, Attorney General, Secretary of State

Wisconsin – Governor, US Senate

Michigan – Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State

Pennsylvania – Governor, US Senate

If we can ensure that Democratic, pro-democracy candidates are elected in these races, the downstream effect should be holding and/or taking some US House races that weren’t seen as competitive.

The Good News

As Joe Trippi noted in his memo of earlier this year, Democrats have a chance to beat expectations this fall based on a variety of factors including redistricting not being as strong an advantage for Republicans as first expected and further that Republicans were nominating ultra extreme MAGA candidates that would be out of step even in these redrawn districts. Joe’s predictions from January are not only still relevant – with each day, they continue to grow more likely. Redistricting did not hand the GOP a massive advantage. The GOP continues to nominate ultra-MAGA extremists who are far out of step with the general electorate in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Nevada. We are turning a corner on inflation and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine brought together new coalitions both internationally and domestically to counter Russian aggression. Democrats continue to coalesce around two potential victories: reducing inflation and the CHIPS bill (which 187 House Republicans voted against, giving Dems a key messaging win going into the fall). And of course, the Democratic base is larger (and for the first time, more motivated to vote, since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, as recent polls show 92% of Democrats are extremely motivated, as compared to 89% of the GOP).

We need to stay motivated. The Democrats are a herd of cats, granted, going every which direction, but when we are united and focused we become the lion. Never forget that. Get out the vote like your life depended on it because it does.