It Looks Like 2018 Is Getting Ready To Take A Bow

Well, well. This turned out to be an entertaining weekend. MSNBC reported earlier today that yesterday, a group of more than 100 corporate CEO’s held a conference call to try to come up with a unified plan of action to deny their campaign donations from GOP candidates, both in state, as well as national candidates who are pushing for restrictive voting rights legislation. They also discussed turning off the donation spigot to state parties and RNC who try to ram home such legislation. Clearly, corporate America realizes it’s in the fight for the long haul, and they’re trying to unite so that none of their individual asses are left hanging in the breeze.

Then last night, El Pendejo Presidente took center stage at the first RNC retreat since he got his ass handed to him last November. And while Trump is still refusing to allow the NC to use his name or image in fundraising, even though he’s a public domain figure, they paid him $100,000 to spend an hour insulting them and slapping them around the room. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Donnie Depends was in fine form. He called Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a sad son of a bitch, and a total loser. He repeated the tired Big Lie of the 2020 election being stolen from him, and roasted former Vice President Mike Pence for darting to certify the election results. And he bragged about how his personal Leadership POAC has a healthier balance that the RNC’s national bank account. All of this in front of the GOP’s deepest pocket donors. And Trump threatened to primary any incumbents who were not loyal enough to him.

Here’s where 2018 starts to rear its ugly head like Jacob Marley’s ghost for the GOP. As hard as Trump tried, he was not on the ballot in 2018, but he did everything in his power to make it a referendum on him, and it was a disaster. Trump demanded public displays of loyalty from incumbents, especially House incumbents, and white suburban GOP women voters in swing districts handed the Democrats the House on a silver patter. Also, Trump was campaigning full bore, and not only was he out fund raising the RNC, but he continually tapped the RNC for cash to help pay his and his family’s legal bills, draining them of resources they desperately needed to fund critical races.

But here’s the part where Jacob Marley hits the GOP with his cash box and chains. You all remember that I wrote at the time that on inauguration day of 2017, Mitch McConnell had sugarplums dancing in his head. He had the majority in the Senate, and a midterm in 2018 that had him drooling of building a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. Life was good.

No, not really. McConnell had a whole list of A Candidates that he wanted to run against vulnerable Democrats for the Senate in 2018, but every time he made his pitch, the all suddenly had Brazilian Bikini Wax appointments that they just couldn’t break. Most of these mainstream up and comers in the GOP already saw Trump as damaged goods who would likely lose in 2020, and none of them wanted their name on any ballot that he was even associated with, much less have him campaigning for them. McConnell ended up with a bunch of second and third rate candidates that were underfunded by a Trump squeezed GOP.

So here we go again. Trump has already made it clear that he will foster a primary challenge against any incumbent that he feels was disloyal. This means that a whole passel of newbie GOP House incumbents who kept their heads down and flipped back those critical suburban swing districts will likely get turfed out in primaries. And nothing Trump has done in the last two years is going to make suburban white GOP women more like to vote for acolytes of Glorious Bleater. Especially when Democrats are making their lives better.

And now on to the Senate. From where I’m sitting, the two weakest Democratic seats are their two newest additions, Warnock in Georgia, and Kelly in Arizona, both of whom now have to run for full terms. And they’re actually in pretty good shape. Warnock is so strong that Perdue already announced he won’t oppose him in 2022, which opens the door for the obnoxious Marjorie Taylor Greene. And in Arizona. Martha McSally was at best a like warm Trombie, and couldn’t win in two tries two years apart. If another Trombie wins the primary, Cindy McCain will just endorse Kelly, and again, Kelly will have voted on laws that are making life better in AZ. I know, there are those Jim Crow 2.0 laws, but I’m betting they get tied up in court through the midterms, and also, the Senate passing HR1/SR1 undoes 90% of the damage. And the demographics won’t get any better for the GOP in the next 18 months.

Phew! Now on to the GOP side. McConnell is really in the hurt locker. He has the open Burr seat in NC. Tillis barely survived in 2020 against a flawed candidate. There’s Toomey’s open seat in PA, which just flipped back blue in 2020, and which has a Democratic Governor to veto any truly insane redistricting maps the GOP brings up. Rob Portman’s seat is open in OH. Ohio likes Biden, and if he gets his infrastructure bill through, and his Buy American plan starts working, they’re gonna like him a whole lot more. This could be a real dogfight, with the right Democratic candidate. And if Ron Johnson runs again in 2022, he’s a ruptured duck, and if he quits, and the GOP nominates a Trombie, white suburban sewing district women GOP voters figure to come out en’ masse again.

But here’s why the GOP, especially the GOP Senate is in so much trouble going into next year. It’s Jerry McGuire time, Show me the money, baby! In 2018 Trump didn’t spend jack shit on local races, and he siphoned off critical RNC funds to pay legal bills. But Trump has to be careful. He has a reelection campaign fund, which is required to report its income and spending quarterly.

But going into 2022, Trump isn’t running for a goddamn thing, and is unlikely to. What Trump has now is what’s called a Leadership PAC, which is basically a political license to steal. He can withdraw money for expenses, travel, clothes, accommodations, and entertainment. This is why Trump will continue to fight the RNC tooth and nail over the use of his name and image in fundraising, it’s money for his personal slush fund. And he’ll continue to try to strongarm the RNC into kicking into his legal defense fund. And he won’t spend a goddamn dime on 2022 races.

This is why I’m already bullish on 2022. The Democrats will MitchMcConnell

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