The gubernatorial race in Virginia hasn’t been officially called yet but Dave Wasserman of the Cook Report threw in the towel on Terry McAuliffe about an hour ago on Twitter and pundits on both CBS and MSNBC are saying that he needs “to pull an inside straight” to win at this point. Now before we go panicking entirely, it was known for some time that this was going to be a close race. So it may be that way and one or the other candidate may win by a small margin. This we have seen in our lives and will see again. However, at the time of this writing, just past 9:30 p.m. EDT, Glenn Youngkin is solidly ahead. And that could have implications way beyond this gubernatorial race. New Republic:
It didn’t have to be like this. Virginia is a state that’s been trending blue for a while now. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004, and Democratic margins have been increasing (Joe Biden won it by double digits). Within the state, Democrats control the governor’s mansion, the attorney general’s office, the secretary of state’s office, and both chambers in the state’s legislature. Both of Virginia’s Senate seats are held by incumbent Democrats who haven’t been in any serious electoral peril for some time now—even after a presidential election where Senator Tim Kaine was on the losing ticket.
But gridlock in Congress has acted as a depressant for Democratic voters and activists. Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives has desperately worked to cobble together an infrastructure deal that would (among other things) offer McAuliffe at least a last-minute boost. On Monday, Senator Joe Manchin once again quashed those hopes when he held a press conference saying he needed to study the fiscal impact of the budget bill before deciding whether he’ll vote for it.
If anything, Virginia’s election results could act as an especially accurate herald of the midterms and the next presidential election. “There is this sort of sense that, I don’t know, maybe ‘disappointment’ is too strong a word, but of not meeting expectations. I think that’s a national problem, and Virginia’s just the first up to measure that,” said Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher. He added “Virginia is increasingly becoming a state [where] elections in the off-year are nationalized.”
So if McAuliffe loses, Belcher said, “hit the fucking panic button, because all hell’s going to break loose. And I think we’re headed for a midterm disaster the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades.” [emphasis added]
Similarly, J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said, “Even if McAuliffe ends up winning by one or two points, well, this is a state that Biden won by 10 points, so if I were a Democratic strategist I’d be on high alert, even if McAuliffe ends up winning.”
If McAuliffe loses, then tying a candidate to Trump might not be the way to go in the midterms. If Youngkin wins, then scaring parents about what’s taught in the schools — or just fear, period — might be the way to go. That actually seems plausible in this political climate and with the school boards nationwide hosting one lunatic after another at the podium.
Virginia has 60% of the vote in and Youngkin is leading by 200,000 votes. Let’s see where it goes. Color me not optimistic — but I want to be wrong. Oh, how I want to be wrong.
And there is one silver lining here and it is a substantial one: if Youngkin wins, then the stolen election drivel will be defused. And that will be a tremendous blessing. Maybe that’s the best way to look at this night, if it comes down to Virginia having a Republican governor.
I hope, I really do that as Joe Manchin was knocking back his evening cocktail he took an extra big celebratory gulp and swallowed “funny” – and is this very second coughing and hacking at the alcohol burning his lungs. For good measure, I hope his evening snack of fancy little thingys gives him a good case of food poisoning. Not bad enough to send him to the hospital of course. But bad enough he spends all of tomorrow shitting explosive diarrhea. Of course, what I really wish is that I’m wrong and there is a heaven and hell and that Manchin winds up in hell. In the fucking Trump section!
I sure wish I still lived in northern VA. I do without all manner of things for a month to be able to rent a boat, take it down to where Manchin’s houseboat is parked on the Potomac and fuel myself up with plenty of liquids and repeatedly PISS all over his home away from home!
The panic button is reserved for people without a plan or hope. Win or lose, we just got to keep going if we’re serious, which I am. And it is worth noting how TRUMP pulled an inside straight five years ago.
Panic button? I’m pounding the hell out of the HATE button. My hatred for Joe Manchin is second only to that for Trump and it’s damned close to that level. He (and Sinema although she toned it down some the past couple of weeks or so) spent months pissing in the punchbowl and tossing turds in the soup. And not only stopped Joe Biden’s and the Democratic Party’s agenda they denied those up for election today a solid set of things to run on. NO Democrat in the state of Virginia should give him the fucking time of day from now on even if they’ve got a crate full of alarm clocks. Hate is a corrosive thing, but it is also fuel if properly channeled and I for one intend to ramp up calls, emails and other forms of pressure on Manchin and others who’ve held things up to get the fuck out of the way and allow us to do the things that need to be done so that next year we can show the voters tangible results that are benefiting their daily lives.
Make sure that it stays fuel. The day you make it your compass is the day you are lost. I feel it too, make no mistake, but mine is a cold thing. Let it run too hot and the other side will steer you exactly where you want to go. Haven’t we both had more than enough of that?
I used to kind of admire Manchin, but he’s nothing but a trouble making traitor to the Dem party. He’s ruining any headway we could make before the midterms. Fascism I guess, will be king when the RW-ers take over again. Sad that our country will be a Q-Anon haven. Glad i’m old.
Far less glad for your sentiment, as I’m of the age that I’m going to be seeing lots of things you missed. I knew as far back as the 1990s that this was the way it was always going to go with them. That time proved me right gives me no joy. That too many folks continue to do little…a pattern I’ve been seeing my entire life…makes angry beyond words.
” yall think I’m licked…well I’m not licked. I’m gonna stay right here & fight for this lost cause…even if this room gets filled with lies like these.” Jimmy Stewart, Mr. Smith Goes To Washington. No battle. No fight. No conflict. No war was ever won by giving in to fear, or by surrender.