I Love Republicans! They’re SO Cute Just Before Their Egos Die

When I talk about Republicans, I’m not talking about brain dead Trombies foaming like they have a mouthful of Comet. I’m talking about what’s left of the moderate, sane Republicans who have stuck around with the dream that when the Trombies die of extreme bile, The meek shall inherit their party back.

A Textbook example is conservative author, columnist and editor John Podhoretz. Personally, I like Podhoretz, he’s affable and mild mannered, and he brings a considered opinion to the table. What’s not to like, he’s a san political commentator.

Last night he was on Steve Kornacki’s Countdown to the 2022 Midterms on MSNBC, paired off with Democratic strategist and former Clinton 2016 campaign aide Jennifer Palmieri. Since both are well mannered and well schooled, it was a nice matchup.

Palmieri was ticking off all of the things that the Democrats had done to possibly swing the tide. Their accomplishments, their impending accomplishments to come before November, the mass shootings, the SCOTUS decision overturning Roe v Wade, and so on. And Podhoretz just sat there, smiling serenely and nodding his head until it was his turn.

Where he said, I agree with you Jen, the ground has shifted. But you’re ignoring one simple thing, History. Since the end of WWII, the party controlling the White House in the first midterms has only gained seats twice. And history shows that thoise first term midterm currents are so strong that almost nothing can  overcome them.

I’ll give John Podhoretz a nod and a smile, because he’s right. If you go back to 1946, there have only been two times when the party holding the White House picked up seats in the first midterms. I agree. But Podhoretz is being derelict, because he’s not following the actual math to its logical conclusion, in order to keep his belief system intact.

If you go from 1946 to 2022, that’s 76 years. And in that context, Podhoretz is right, the odds appear overwhelming. Even Reagan, the most popular GOP President since Lincoln lost seats in his first midterm. The odds appear overwhelming, no matter how well things go.

Where Podhoretz falls apart is in refusing to follow the logic of his own math. He talks of only 2 times in 76 years, and while that’s true, it’s also very misleading. Because it’s actually a much shorter time span than what he’s quoting to help get him through the night.

The two years that Podhoretz is speaking of is, of course 1998 and 2002. But what’s the time span from 1998 to 2022? Only 24 years, not 76! For 52 years, nobody had ever done it, but it was done twice in the next 24 years. These aren’t such impossible odds, are they.

But Podhoretz also had his blinders on for another issue, the one Palmieri had just raised. In the two exception years, there were seismic shifts. In 1998, the GOP tried to impeach Bill Clinton for his sleazy affair with Monica Lewinsky.
And while most voters thought that Clinton was a dog, they didn’t want him impeached, and punished the GOP in the midterms.

In the 2002 first midterms for Bush, you had the granddaddy of all game changers, 9/11. To be fair, Bush handled it well, and the country rallied around him. As a result he picked up House seats in his first midterm. That’s it.

That was the point that Jen Palmieri was trying to make. In 2022, there isn’t just one gamechanger, there are 3.

• 1) Donald Trump. His constant whining and interference are bogging down the GOP. Sane GOP voters, especially white suburban GOP women voters are sick of his shit. He’s a pox.
• 2) Mass shootings. The Uvalde school shooting was the straw that broke the camel’s back. After all, white suburban GOP soccer moms don’t want their kids bleeding out on a classroom floor any more than anybody else. And because of the GOP’s slavish devotion to the NRA, the Democrats got almost all of the praise for the first major gun control legislation in 30 years
• 3) Roe v Wade. The SCOTUS decision to make women in the United States second class citizens has had a profound effect. It has activated women voters in a way the Democrats never could. And after all GOP suburban soccer moms want to control the size of their family too

When you look at the history, the logic, and the landscape, you can easily see that 2022 is much closer to 1998 and 2002 than to the period from 1946-1998. And believe it or not, I’m not the only one who thinks so

• Former GOP Chair, and still registered Republican Michael Steele finds 3 separate paths in which the Democrats hold and increase their advantage in the House, and finds it difficult to see how the Democrats don’t increase their hold on the Senate
• The Grim Reaper, Mitch McConnell is already reported as telling close friends and confidants that he’s afraid that Traitor Tot’s nonsensical interference is going to make him a permanent Minority Leader in the Senate. I gotta believe that McConnell has access to better internal polling, cross-tabs, and sentiment than Podhoretz does
• Electoral savant Nate Silver over at 538.com just downgraded their estimate of the GOP’s chances for the House in 2022. The yad it at 30-45 seats for the GOP. They have sliced it in a third, to 15-30 GOP pickup seats. And pay that no mind

Here’s why. There’s only 1 reason for a group as well put together as 538.com to suddenly downgrade the GOP’s House chances anywhere from 33-66%. Candidate quality! Trump’s success in promoting unelectable general election candidates is making Nate Silver pull his oars back. And just look at how more state primaries there are left to go, and how much more trouble Trump can cause.

That’s why I love moderate Republicans. There are big red warning flares going off all over the place that the Trombies are about to screw this up, and they hide behind the comfort food of historical precedent. You keep right on thinking that. Right on up to the part where the roof falls in on top of you.