I found the Ohio primary results on the GOP side last night fascinating, for several reasons. And when I look down the calendar the next couple of weeks, the possibilities get even more fascinating.
Hillbilly billionaire JD Vance won the GOP primary. But there are a couple of caveats that go with that victory. First, Vance won in a 5 name field with 32%. Extrapolate that out. This means that 68% of Ohio Republicans think that Vance sucks. Now consider thes. The lone anti Trump candidate, Matt Dolan, came within 0.6% of finishing in 2nd place, only trailing vance by 9 points. Agans, extrapolate. Almost a quarter of Ohio GOP voters said A pox on all of your Trombie houses!
On the Democratic side, favorite Democratic congressman Tim Ryan got a solid 69% of the votes. This sets Ryan up nicely going into the general election, with pretty solid support across the party. Fundraising shouldn’t be a problem.
The thing that is making these races so interesting is Trump’s insistence on making every race a referendum on him, by endorsing somebody in almost every race. For most of my life, incumbents in both parties were generally loathe to endorse a candidate in the primaries, not wanting to appear that they were trying to put their finger on the scales. Trump revels in portraying himself as a kingmaker.
This will play out over the next two weeks in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Right now, the last poll I saw, quack Dr Oz is floundering in the middle of the pack. In Georgia, lunkhead Herschel Walker is in better shape. But right now, it appears that incumbent Brian Kemp is going to give Trump acolyte David Perdue a shellacking. If Oz loses in Pennsylvania, Trump going 2-4 in high profile statewide races isn’t exactly getting off to a flying start.
Here’s why this matters so much. You all remember the old political slogan I absolutely hated, Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. And once upon your grannie’s GOP, that was true. Because the GOP was a monolithic structure with principles and an agenda. And while candidates in primaries had different ideas and plans to make those happen, once the primaries were over, the party fell in line to try to achieve those goals.
But this isn’t the GOP, it’s MAGA Nation, the party of Trump. God knows they have no principles, and certainly no agenda. When I looked at a GOP primary, I saw different candidates from the same party. When I look at a MAGA primary, what I see are a bunch of Islamic terrorist cells.
Like the Koran, they each have their own interpretation of what MAGA really means, And like terrorist cells, they are more than happy to fight each other to the death to prove their true believer worth for Glorious Bleater.
In the 2018 Democratic primaries, there was a story that got national attention about a Democratic House candidate who went out and knocked on doors to help another Democratic candidate get enough signatures on her petition to make the ballot. And when the primaries were over, many of the losers knocked on doors, or put time in on the phone banks to support the winner. It was a contest of ideas and qualifications. And the Democrats kicked ass.
Call me a moron, but I don’t see that happening on the GOP side in 2022. Hell, in Ohio, runner up Josh Mandell worked his ass off every day to convince Trump that he had made a mistake in endorsing Vance, and begging him to make a last minute change. Somehow I just don’t see them just falling in line to support vance. And what about the quarter of the Ohio GOP that voted for the anti Trump candidate? They had 3 different Trump wanna be candidates to choose from. But they’re sick of Trump, and voted for change. I find it highly likely that they either vote for Ryan, or just sit it out. And going into a general election without almost 25% of our base is not a winning strategy. This isn’t an exercise in democracy, it’s turf warfare.
Here’s that word again. Now extrapolate this nationwide. Will somebody that voted for Oz turn around and vote for his opponent? Why would he? Oz was Trump’s man, no matter how Trumpy the other guy says he is. And if Kemp wins in Georgia, what self respecting Perdue voter would pull a lever for Kemp? Shit, they hate Kemp, because Trump hates Kemp for not stealing Georgia for him. Good luck trying to rally them behind Kemp for The good of the party!
It’s the same thing in the GOP House. It’s like kindergarten when the teacher leaves the room. Every MAGAhead with a filing fee and enough signatures is running for the House, and they all want trump’s love and affection. As a result, no matter who wins, they’ll be lucky to get 30% of the vote, meaning that the majority of the party doesn’t support them going into the election. And since every primary is a knife fight, good luck unifying anybody.
Meanwhile, the Democrats should be largely unified, and motivated. They’ll run painting the GOP as anti Ukraine, on the outrage over the likely Roe v wade decision, voting rights, and the first African American SCOTUS justice. And some of them will run on Trump. Hell, he wants to be the center of attention, so let him. Remind every voter every day what a vote for a Trump endorsed candidate really means.
And one more thing before I go. Whatever you do, don’t underestimate the potential power of some of these Never Trump groups. Miles Taylor has one trying to motivate moderate GOP voters to show up to primaries and get Trombies off of the ballot right there. Former Pence advisor Olivia Troye has the Republican Accountability Project. Former GOP House member David Jolly has his own group. And of course, there’s always The Lincoln Project. Their attack ads are going to be brutal, and it’s all advertising that the Democrats don’t have to pay for.
I keep saying it. Don’t give up on 2022! If for no other reason, then for this one. With all of the unkept promises, with all of the Democratic Senate gridlock, even with high gas prices, supply chain problems, and inflation. The GOP still only leads the Democrats in the latest generic congressional control poll by 1 lousy point! In normal circumstances, the GOP should be up double digits, and Democratic retirements should be through the roof. This is not the traditional GOP. Don’t just automatically expect them to fall in line.
