How Toxic Is Trump? Watch This One Statistic Going Forward

When it comes to Trump, the GOP, his federal indictment, and polling, it’s a hot mess. And so it appears, is the division starting to appear in the GOP.

First, let’s chat about the polling. The important thing to remember in polling is to look at the subject, as well as the pool. For instance, there was a new Quinnipiac poll released giving results after Trump’s indictment. They found that Trump still had a durable, dominant lead of 54-46% over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Nobody else is really even in the rear view mirror.

But here’s the catch. Seeing as this is a poll on the GOP primaries, it is highly likely that a reputable poll like Quinnipiac is using a poll pool of likely GOP voters. And as we all know, on both sides, the primary electorate is the most issue motivated base of each party, normally about 20-30
% of the party, not really a representative example of the general electorate. Now, let’s look at something a little more relevant. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken after the Trump indictments were unsealed, found that 60% of registered voters felt that the Trump indictments was justified, which included a surprising 30% of GOP voters. More importantly, in the same previous poll, taken before the indictments were unsealed, Biden held a general election edge over Trump of 46-44%. In the new poll Biden has edged up to a 48-44% advantage. Since Trump’s legal problems are dominating the news, this is a small barometer that mainstream opinion is turning against Trump.

Now let’s move away from polling, and to the real meat and potatoes here. Recent reporting shows that some of the less brain dead members of the GOP caucus are starting to have some second thoughts. While playing coy, more and more Democratic incumbents, both House and Senate are starting to say that in private conversations with GOP members they’re friendly with, there may be a little buyers remorse going on.

The Manhattan DA case on the Stormy Daniels payoff was easy to dismiss. After all, it was a local case, in a venue not particularly fond of Trump, involving alleged fraud for covering up a roll in the hay. That’s tailor made for complaints of political persecution.

But when you look at a 49 page indictment containing 37 counts of mishandling classified documents, including semi graphic descriptions of the documents, and pictures of boxes on ballroom stages, bathrooms, and spilled on the floor, as the Sesame Street meme says, Sh*t just got real. And more and more of the reality based Republicans are starting to worry about the effect these charges will have on the 2024 election.

One senior GOP Senator laid it out plainly in front of a camera. We have to be realists here. We lost in 2018, we lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022, and in each election Trump was an issue. And these indictments are going to have a negative impact for us in 2024.

So here’s what you need to start watching out for starting in about 2-3 months. This is one of my favorite barometers of how either political party is feeling about its chances in the upcoming election, and I’ve written about it before. But this cycle definitely calls for a reminder.

Heading into the fall, when filing deadlines start to approach for the 2024 primaries, start watching the congressional retirement list. In 2018, there were nearly 50 GOP incumbents filed for retirement rather than run for reelection. Most of them were from suburban swing districts, who could read the writing on the wall. Better to retire than go down in flames.

2020 was a mixed bag. As in most presidential election years, most members bet on their parties strength. For the most part both sides mostly decided to sit Shiva and take their chances. In 2022 there was a rash of Democratic retirements, mostly in the Hose, and I think that some of them now wish they had run again, looking at the way things came out.

But here we are heading for 2024, a whole new cycle. You can say what you want about the accuracy of public polling in the lying bastards Trump GOP era, and I’m right there with ya. But there’s something else to consider. These are career politicians, and this is their careers on the line. And as a result, they all hire out for private polling for their campaigns, and it had damn well better be accurate if they hope to have a chance.

And those polls are what they’ll use to guide their decisions. So if we get into August, September, and October, and suddenly you start to see a passel of GOP incumbents retiring, especially in swing districts, or districts they won in that Biden also carried, then you can deduce that there’s an ill wind blowing.

I have often said that being a member of the US congress is the best paying gig in the world. These ballot mice are not going to walk away from it unless the threat of a humiliating loss is there. If you see a sudden surge of GOP retirement announcements, then that’s a sign that Traitor Tot is busy weaving his usual electoral magic.