Look, forget about those goobers in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those aren’t primary states, they’re flyby points-of-interest for airline pilots to get on the PA, And if you look out the windows on the left side, you’ll see Des Moines, Iowa. It’s easy to spot, it’s the only thing in sight without furrows. That’s why the Democrats broke their daisy chains.
Those states won’t be determinative to the end results, no matter what they spout off. What’s going to make all the difference is going to be what happens in the larger, more populous states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas and the like. And that’s where a couple of stealth programs that nobody is talking about could make just enough of a difference to put Traitor Tot in the hurt locker.
No matter what happens to His Lowness, as long as he’s still breathing, 28-32% of the GOP will never leave him. Some of them are die hard Trombies who have shrines in their basements, and the rest are far right Q-Anon derelicts and other conspiracy nuts who couldn’t care less if El Pendejo wants to reopen internment camps, as long as their support pisses off liberals and people who can tie their own shoes, they’re all in. But there’s nowhere near as many of them as there used to be. Problem is that they’re the ones who vote in the primaries.
But maybe not the only ones anymore. The GOP learned decades ago that most of their primary voters were single issue voters. The secret was to get candidates to swing hard right on those issues to energize the base, and tack back center later. And obviously it works. But they’re not the only ones trying to use that strategy anymore.
After El Pendejo Presidente lost in 2020, at least two former senior administration officials, former Homeland Security assistant director, and former Pence senior advisor Olivia Troye each created their own anti-Trump groups. They both raised considerable amounts of money, but their strategy wasn’t to take The Dumpy Despot on head on.
Their goal was a simple one, and that goal was education. The goal was to reach out to registered anti-Trump voters, and show them that it wasn’t enough just to beat Trump, you had to beat Trumpism as well. And it wasn’t enough to just show up and vote anti-Trump and Trumpism in November, when turnout was high. The secret was to motivate moderate GOP to show up in significant numbers in the primaries, where the turnout was lighter, and a smaller number of committed voters could oust entrenched MAGAt’s.
After the 2022 midterms both groups admitted that the experiment had born mixed results. But in both cases there were enough success stories to keep both groups up and running, and funded by larger anti-Trump groups. And now they have two things going for them, they already have two years of experience under their belts, and in 2024 they can educate people to vote against Trump in the primaries.
Here’s why this at least has a shot at working. As the indictments keep piling up, Trump has yet to see any real slippage in his primary base. But from 30,000 feet, more and more reporting is starting to show that not only large GOP donors, but many moderate GOP voters are rapidly beginning to see Trump as unelectable in a general election. And if there’s one thing that deep pocket GOP donors and moderate GOP voters are sick to death of, it’s losing every time Trump barrels into an election.
Here’s how it could work, and why I said to ignore small rural states. Trump is anathema to GOP voters in larger, suburban swing districts. And with every new legal revelation, he gets more toxic. If the anti-Trump groups can educate and beat the bushes to get moderates out to vote against Trump, not only will they vote anti-Trump down ballot, but their combined force may be enough to offset low turnout Trump support in rural areas.
The secret is to not get greedy. Let’s just take Super Tuesday for example. If the current top three at least partially viable opposition candidates, Hayley, Scott, and God pound him, DeathSantis each put all of their time, energy, and resources into two states that none of the others is competing in, even if they only take one state each, it’s a resounding success, because they deprived The Trumpster Fire of three high delegate hauls. And never forget, it’s not about states, it’s about delegates.
That’s why I keep saying to ignore the more rural states, the delegate haul isn’t worth the effort. Ohio, California, Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, even California and New York. Even if the candidate can’t win the state in November, winning them in the primaries makes Trump’s path to the nomination that much harder.
These candidates also have not only ever more negative news piling up on Trump in the media to fuel moderate outrage, they also have what is becoming an ever more crowded court calendar for The Cheeto Prophet. He’s already facing a potential federal trial in December in Florida, a state criminal trial in Manhattan in March, potentially another federal trial in DC either before or after the Florida case, and a Georgia criminal trial God knows when. And unlike the two civil cases in New York in October and January, Trump is required to be behind that defense table every dan day that the trial is in session. Which means more bad news, and one less day to campaign.
Bit It’s all about the delegates baby! Nobody actually has to beat Trump, they just need to keep him from getting the requisite number of delegate votes to claim the nomination. In a brokered convention, Trump is a man on an island, surrounded by sharks. Nobody will deal with him, hell they all got in to beat him. And whoever cobbles together enough delegates to finally win, they’re coming out bruised, on a fractured coalition rather than party unity, and any way you look at it, Trump’s base boogies.
Is it a long shot? You bet. But not as long as you might think. In every election since 2018 Trump has bled moderate GOP support. They keep showing up election after election to show that they are so over him. And if these groups manage to convince the right moderate GOP voters that in one fell swoop, they can not only rid themselves of Trump, but of Trumpism? Who knows. But it’s still the best shot the GOP has to avoid another total debacle.
question is, do WE want them to avoid another debacle?
Not really.
What we REALLY need is for Trump to lose a primary (or, more fun, a caucus) and then wait for him to do what he does best: Claim vote fraud and/or rigged election. Then watch as his supporters try to attack the various State GOP HQs and State elections offices. Meanwhile, the Trumpers try to hold up ALL delegate selections while the fraud/rigged election nonsense plays out.
Preferably all the way through Labor Day, when the general election campaign is supposed to start in earnest–and the GOP doesn’t have an official nominee.
One CAN dream, no?
Brilliant thought Joseph and a lovely dream indeed. The GOP is destroying itself but far too slowly. We need an all-out internecine war to finish it off.
As a resident in New Hampshire I take umbrage in you calling us goobers ,you goober
It’s quite a place your state. I mean that in a good way. There’s a couple from my small southern Illinois hometown who made their adult lives there and love it. They were a bit younger than me but when I finally broke down several years in and joined FB we connected and exchanged pleasantries. I think the last time (I mostly stopped using FB some years ago) was mutual dismay over what happened to “‘the Old Man Guarding the Notch.” Bummer. I had pictures of it and quite a few other spots due to the then Hunter Education Coordinator for the state having me keynote their annual meeting a little over thirty years ago. As I often did in the job I had then when someone paid my airfare and hotel expenses to speak I’d stay some extra time on my own dime. Jim was quite happy to take a couple of days off work to play tour guide to both me and Herb (VA’s state coordinator who also spoke) and it was great. As for Jim, the lucky bastard wasn’t just from Holderness, but lived on Lake Squam! (That’s the “Golden Pond” of movie fame for the rest of you) It was as breathtakingly beautiful in person as in the movie. And waking up and going to the balcony of my hotel (overlooking the lake) and seeing that mist in the morning was just as good as a sunset from out on the water! If you’re wondering how a state employee could afford it even then, when Jim graduated college he took a job in Boston and only lasted months in the city. Too big and hectic for him so he went back home. His parents had already adjusted to having the home to themselves so they told him to move into their then go-to-hell cabin over on the lake. Over time he rebuilt it a bit at a time into a proper (if small) house, a process that accelerated when he got married and had both his wife’s income and her urging (and some help). Figuring on kids at some point a little planning meant being able to expand the thing to accommodate a family. All fifty feet from the edge of one of the most beautiful lakes one could ever hope to see.
So I for one have a sort of fondness for the Granite State. I’ve found it annoying to be sure about it having outsized say in Presidential politics. For decades I’ve felt that if it’s going to be the first primary then there should be another one the same day in a larger, and more diverse (not just demographically but economically) state. Make politicians prove they can connect both on a “retail” basis but a larger scale. I think the country would have been, and would be in the future much better served. And by shifting which is the additional (to NH) state and making sure each cycle had not just a different state but also region of the country the field would be winnowed down to real, serious contenders right away and there would be enough resources (both money and competent staff) to have a credible contest for everyone. With better candidates which would in turn yield better Presidents. But what the hell do I know?
Murf, you speak of moderate republicans but are there really any more of those in the republican party? I thought those pretty much left it to become independents or what have you.
Isn’t the current definition of a moderate republican, someone slightly to the left of Attila The Hun?
More to the right really.
In comparison with the GQP Attila was a bleeding heart liberal