Look, forget about those goobers in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those aren’t primary states, they’re flyby points-of-interest for airline pilots to get on the PA, And if you look out the windows on the left side, you’ll see Des Moines, Iowa. It’s easy to spot, it’s the only thing in sight without furrows. That’s why the Democrats broke their daisy chains.
Those states won’t be determinative to the end results, no matter what they spout off. What’s going to make all the difference is going to be what happens in the larger, more populous states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas and the like. And that’s where a couple of stealth programs that nobody is talking about could make just enough of a difference to put Traitor Tot in the hurt locker.
No matter what happens to His Lowness, as long as he’s still breathing, 28-32% of the GOP will never leave him. Some of them are die hard Trombies who have shrines in their basements, and the rest are far right Q-Anon derelicts and other conspiracy nuts who couldn’t care less if El Pendejo wants to reopen internment camps, as long as their support pisses off liberals and people who can tie their own shoes, they’re all in. But there’s nowhere near as many of them as there used to be. Problem is that they’re the ones who vote in the primaries.
But maybe not the only ones anymore. The GOP learned decades ago that most of their primary voters were single issue voters. The secret was to get candidates to swing hard right on those issues to energize the base, and tack back center later. And obviously it works. But they’re not the only ones trying to use that strategy anymore.
After El Pendejo Presidente lost in 2020, at least two former senior administration officials, former Homeland Security assistant director, and former Pence senior advisor Olivia Troye each created their own anti-Trump groups. They both raised considerable amounts of money, but their strategy wasn’t to take The Dumpy Despot on head on.
Their goal was a simple one, and that goal was education. The goal was to reach out to registered anti-Trump voters, and show them that it wasn’t enough just to beat Trump, you had to beat Trumpism as well. And it wasn’t enough to just show up and vote anti-Trump and Trumpism in November, when turnout was high. The secret was to motivate moderate GOP to show up in significant numbers in the primaries, where the turnout was lighter, and a smaller number of committed voters could oust entrenched MAGAt’s.
After the 2022 midterms both groups admitted that the experiment had born mixed results. But in both cases there were enough success stories to keep both groups up and running, and funded by larger anti-Trump groups. And now they have two things going for them, they already have two years of experience under their belts, and in 2024 they can educate people to vote against Trump in the primaries.
Here’s why this at least has a shot at working. As the indictments keep piling up, Trump has yet to see any real slippage in his primary base. But from 30,000 feet, more and more reporting is starting to show that not only large GOP donors, but many moderate GOP voters are rapidly beginning to see Trump as unelectable in a general election. And if there’s one thing that deep pocket GOP donors and moderate GOP voters are sick to death of, it’s losing every time Trump barrels into an election.
Here’s how it could work, and why I said to ignore small rural states. Trump is anathema to GOP voters in larger, suburban swing districts. And with every new legal revelation, he gets more toxic. If the anti-Trump groups can educate and beat the bushes to get moderates out to vote against Trump, not only will they vote anti-Trump down ballot, but their combined force may be enough to offset low turnout Trump support in rural areas.
The secret is to not get greedy. Let’s just take Super Tuesday for example. If the current top three at least partially viable opposition candidates, Hayley, Scott, and God pound him, DeathSantis each put all of their time, energy, and resources into two states that none of the others is competing in, even if they only take one state each, it’s a resounding success, because they deprived The Trumpster Fire of three high delegate hauls. And never forget, it’s not about states, it’s about delegates.
That’s why I keep saying to ignore the more rural states, the delegate haul isn’t worth the effort. Ohio, California, Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, even California and New York. Even if the candidate can’t win the state in November, winning them in the primaries makes Trump’s path to the nomination that much harder.
These candidates also have not only ever more negative news piling up on Trump in the media to fuel moderate outrage, they also have what is becoming an ever more crowded court calendar for The Cheeto Prophet. He’s already facing a potential federal trial in December in Florida, a state criminal trial in Manhattan in March, potentially another federal trial in DC either before or after the Florida case, and a Georgia criminal trial God knows when. And unlike the two civil cases in New York in October and January, Trump is required to be behind that defense table every dan day that the trial is in session. Which means more bad news, and one less day to campaign.
Bit It’s all about the delegates baby! Nobody actually has to beat Trump, they just need to keep him from getting the requisite number of delegate votes to claim the nomination. In a brokered convention, Trump is a man on an island, surrounded by sharks. Nobody will deal with him, hell they all got in to beat him. And whoever cobbles together enough delegates to finally win, they’re coming out bruised, on a fractured coalition rather than party unity, and any way you look at it, Trump’s base boogies.
Is it a long shot? You bet. But not as long as you might think. In every election since 2018 Trump has bled moderate GOP support. They keep showing up election after election to show that they are so over him. And if these groups manage to convince the right moderate GOP voters that in one fell swoop, they can not only rid themselves of Trump, but of Trumpism? Who knows. But it’s still the best shot the GOP has to avoid another total debacle.